SK Hynix’s market cap surpasses Samsung’s for the first time in 26 years; Korean brokerages forecast up to 50% further upside
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SK Hynix’s market cap surpasses Samsung’s for the first time in 26 years; Korean brokerages forecast up to 50% further upside
Stock price falls again, yet bulls set a higher target price.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Claude, TechFlow
TechFlow Insight: On June 22, SK Hynix’s intraday market capitalization reached KRW 208 trillion—surpassing Samsung Electronics for the first time in 26 years. Hanwha Investment & Securities raised its target price from KRW 1.63 million to KRW 4.3 million—the highest among Korean brokerages—citing long-term supply agreements (LTAs) and surging HBM demand as fundamental drivers reshaping memory chip profitability volatility. The stock has surged over 340% year-to-date, briefly breaching KRW 3 million pre-market, before falling more than 5% during regular trading.
On June 22, SK Hynix’s intraday share price hit a record high of KRW 2.95 million, pushing its market cap to KRW 208.1 trillion—exceeding Samsung Electronics’ KRW 207.3 trillion. This marks the first time since November 2000 that Samsung has lost its position as Korea’s most valuable listed company.
According to The Korea Herald, as of 3:15 p.m. local time that day, SK Hynix closed at KRW 2.91 million, up 5.32%, while Samsung Electronics edged down 0.28% to KRW 353,000. Year-to-date, SK Hynix has gained 341.9%, versus Samsung Electronics’ 197.7%. Though both operate in the semiconductor sector, investors are voting with their feet: In the AI era, companies directly benefiting from infrastructure build-out command higher valuation premiums than diversified conglomerates.
Hanwha Investment & Securities Sets Target Price at KRW 4.3 Million—More Than Doubled
On June 22, Hanwha Investment & Securities analyst Park Jun-young raised SK Hynix’s target price from KRW 1.63 million to KRW 4.3 million—a near 1.6x increase—and the highest target price currently issued by any Korean brokerage.
Park’s core thesis: SK Hynix is no longer a volatile-profitability company but is transforming into one capable of generating sustained, high-level profits. He notes Korean memory chipmakers have historically suffered valuation discounts—but with LTAs expanding and HBM demand surging, earnings visibility has fundamentally improved.
According to The Seoul Economic Daily, Hanwha applied a 10x P/E ratio (PER) in calculating its target price—the lowest among global semiconductor peers. SK Hynix’s current 12-month forward PER stands at approximately 6.6x—lower than Micron’s. Hanwha forecasts SK Hynix’s operating margin will remain above 30% even if the memory market weakens—versus past downturns when margins fell below 10% or turned negative.
Hanwha also cited ADR listing as a catalyst. Park stated that an ADR listing this year would allow SK Hynix to be directly valued against peers like Micron on U.S. markets: “SK Hynix is currently the optimal investment candidate across both fundamentals and momentum.”
Multiple Brokerages Jointly Raise Targets—Memory Industry Valuation Framework Under Rewrite
Hanwha is not alone. Over the past two months, Korean and international brokerages have collectively raised SK Hynix’s target prices in rapid succession.
SK Securities raised its target to KRW 3 million on May 7, applying a 10x PER framework—the highest among Korean brokerages at the time. KB Securities followed suit on May 15, also setting a KRW 3 million target and forecasting a 78.1% operating margin for 2026, calling memory semiconductors “a scarce strategic asset determining overall AI system performance.” Citigroup lifted its target from KRW 1.7 million to KRW 3.1 million on May 12, citing stronger-than-expected HBM price growth in H2. JPMorgan raised its target to KRW 3 million on May 18 and simultaneously increased its EPS forecasts for 2026–2028 by 9%–20%.
Nomura Securities declared in its May 15 report: “This time really is different,” arguing the memory industry’s valuation logic is undergoing a paradigm shift—risk premiums should now align with TSMC’s rather than traditional cyclical stock frameworks.
A shared rationale underpins these upgrades: LTAs have transformed the memory industry’s pricing mechanism. Per Hanwha’s analysis, current LTAs include price-decline protection clauses and legally enforceable contract fulfillment safeguards—enabling manufacturers to sustain minimum profitability even during market downturns. This stands in stark contrast to the prior DRAM spot-price volatility model, where manufacturers passively absorbed cyclical swings.
Q1 Results: Revenue Breaks KRW 50 Trillion; Operating Margin Hits 72%
The target price hikes rest on hard data. In FY2026 Q1, SK Hynix posted revenue of KRW 52.58 trillion—up 198% YoY—surpassing KRW 50 trillion for the first time. Operating profit totaled KRW 37.61 trillion—up 405% YoY—with an operating margin of 72%, exceeding NVIDIA’s 65% and setting a new record for semiconductor manufacturing.
HBM is the key driver. SK Hynix holds roughly 70%–80% of the global HBM market and serves as the primary supplier for NVIDIA’s AI accelerators. According to Goldman Sachs’ April report, the global DRAM supply-demand gap for 2026 widened from 3.3% to 4.9%—the worst in 15 years. The top three memory makers have sold out nearly all capacity this year; wafer fab construction cycles take four to five years, meaning virtually no new capacity will come online this year.
In its April earnings forecast revision, UBS noted AI-driven HBM demand continues to cannibalize DDR capacity, while server refresh cycles and SSD demand surge in tandem—extending the global DRAM supply-demand gap through Q4 2027, dubbing it “a memory supercycle unseen in nearly 30 years.”
Pre-Market Breach of KRW 3 Million—But >5% Drop in Regular Trading
During pre-market trading on June 23, SK Hynix hit KRW 3.002 million on Nextrade’s NXT platform—briefly crossing the KRW 3 million threshold. However, shares retreated sharply after regular trading opened, falling to KRW 2.75 million by 11 a.m.—down 5.79% from the previous close.
The immediate trigger was broad weakness among global mega-cap tech stocks—even though U.S. memory stocks performed relatively well overnight (Micron rose 6.9%; SanDisk rose 4.1%). While the KOSPI index gained 7.53% month-to-date, gains were heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix. Excluding those two, the KOSPI 200 index actually declined 2.48%—highlighting extreme market divergence.
Per The Korea Herald, some brokerages have issued warnings: With Samsung Electronics’ projected profit scale and growth rate both higher than SK Hynix’s, the market-cap reversal may signal short-term overheating.
Yet data from Mirae Asset Securities tracking top-performing investors (top 1% by returns over the past month) shows SK Hynix remained the most heavily net-bought stock on June 23 morning. These investors viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity.
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