Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran Talks Encounter Early Hiccups, Oil Prices Rebound; Marvell and Others Join the S&P 500, Samsung and SK Hynix to List in the U.S.; Energy Fuels Receives U.S. Government Support
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran Talks Encounter Early Hiccups, Oil Prices Rebound; Marvell and Others Join the S&P 500, Samsung and SK Hynix to List in the U.S.; Energy Fuels Receives U.S. Government Support
Overall, institutions recommend focusing on data verification and negotiation progress, maintaining a neutral-to-cautious allocation while prioritizing defense against geopolitical and policy risks.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
I. Top News
Federal Reserve Updates
Deutsche Bank Turns Hawkish: 50 bps Rate Hike Expected in 2026
- Deutsche Bank raised its inflation forecast and now expects the Federal Reserve to hike rates twice in 2026 (totaling 50 basis points), pushing the federal funds rate to 4.1%; it even flags the possibility of an early move as soon as July.
- Faced with persistent inflation and new Fed Chair Walsh’s hawkish stance, the bank reversed its prior dovish outlook, emphasizing a “higher-for-longer” interest-rate environment.
- Market impact: Traders have significantly increased the probability of a September rate hike; short-term U.S. Treasury volatility is expected to rise, long-end yields stabilize, and rate-sensitive assets face repricing pressure.
International Commodities
U.S.-Iran Talks Off to a Rocky Start, Oil Prices Rally Over 2%
- Tensions escalated at initial U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland after Trump threatened to strike Iran if Hezbollah continues attacking Israel—prompting Iran to suspend parts of the dialogue.
- Brent crude surged over 2% early in Asia trading, briefly touching ~$82.30; WTI climbed above $78, with robust trading volume.
- Market impact: Geopolitical risk premium rose, supporting oil prices in the near term—but longer-term direction hinges on negotiation progress and the restoration of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Macroeconomic Policy
Goldman Sachs & Others Assess Impact of Walsh’s Hawkish Remarks on Bond Markets
- In his first policy speech since assuming office, Chair Walsh prioritized inflation control—prompting markets to price in earlier hikes than previously anticipated.
- Goldman Sachs noted this will increase short-end Treasury volatility while stabilizing long-end yields.
- Market impact: Fixed-income valuations face adjustment; combined with geopolitical risks, macro uncertainty has risen.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: $4,187/oz, +0.77%
- Spot Silver: $65.88/oz, +1.53%
- WTI Crude: $77.53/bbl, +2.29%
- Brent Crude: $81.32/bbl, +1.77%
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 100.844, +0.08%
Key Drivers Analysis: Renewed geopolitical tensions from the early-stage U.S.-Iran talks reignited concerns, boosting oil prices. Supply risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz remain relevant. Though some Gulf shipping has resumed, low inventories continue to support prices. The dollar index remained relatively stable; however, hawkish Fed signals—including Walsh’s remarks and Deutsche Bank’s forecast—capped further upside for precious metals, though inflation expectations and safe-haven demand provided floor support. In the near term, oil-gold-silver correlations reflect a tug-of-war between risk sentiment and macro expectations. A substantive breakthrough in negotiations could weigh on oil; otherwise, volatility will persist. Consensus among institutions holds that geopolitics dominate oil markets in the short run, while the Fed’s path shapes cross-dynamics among precious metals and the dollar.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: $63,853, -0.66%
- ETH: $1,728, -0.6%
- Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.27 trillion, -0.6%
- 24h Liquidations: ~$141 million total; ~$97 million long liquidations.
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price ~$63,877; significant short liquidation clusters lie between $64,500–$65,500—indicating stronger upward liquidation pressure. Major long liquidation zones sit around $62,700–$63,200; a break below this level could trigger further downside.
Key Drivers Analysis: Geopolitical tension and hawkish Fed expectations jointly pressured risk assets. BTC/ETH faced near-term headwinds, yet total market cap held up resiliently. Leverage liquidations were concentrated on the long side, reflecting market caution amid rising volatility. ETF flows showed net outflows—suggesting institutional观望 (wait-and-see) posture. Technically, BTC oscillated near key support; ETH lagged comparatively. Macro factors (oil rebound, U.S. Treasury yields) and AI narratives acted as countervailing forces. Institutional views hold that near-term trends hinge on negotiation developments and Fed cues, while ETF inflows and hashpower demand remain positive long-term tailwinds. BTC/ETH divergence may persist; watch for rebound potential post-leverage deleveraging.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: ~51,564.7, +0.14%
- S&P 500: 7,500.58, +1.08%
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,517.93, +1.91%
Tech Giants’ Moves
- NVDA: $210.69, +2.95%
- AAPL: $297.20, +0.70%
- MSFT: $399.14, +2.15%
- GOOGL: $368.03, +1.17%
- AMZN: $243.15, -0.51%
- META: $577.22, +1.67%
- TSLA: $398.50, +0.55%
Summary & Key Drivers: The tech sector broadly strengthened, with semiconductor indices surging over 6% and chip stocks hitting all-time highs. Intel and other legacy players diverged from AI leaders like NVIDIA: the former benefits from long-term roadmaps redefined by advanced packaging and glass substrates; the latter drives compute demand. Amazon is negotiating sales of its Trainium custom AI chips externally, while Google and Broadcom replicate NVIDIA’s funding model—signaling AI infrastructure competition is shifting from single-supplier dominance to multi-party closed-loop ecosystems. Valuation pressures and company-specific events (e.g., SpaceX bond issuance, Meta’s data center agreement) drove stock-level divergence; overall, AI commercialization remains the dominant trend—but macro tightening signals warrant caution.
Crypto-Linked Equity Futures Overview
24H Total Volume: $3.16 billion (+35.01%)
Total Open Interest: $5.13 billion (+2.46%)
24H Total Liquidations: $9.18 million
Breakdown: Volume 3.01%, Open Interest 4.77%, Liquidations 6.35%
Sector Open Interest Breakdown (Major Sectors)
Technology: $2.64 billion
Financials: $169 million
Consumer Discretionary: $70.34 million
Industrials: $30.95 million
Biotech: $17.3 million
Market Heatmap (Open Interest Focused)
Top Assets by Open Interest (in USD billions):
SPCX: $0.703
MU: $0.469
SKHX: $0.365
NVDA: $0.258
SNDK: $0.254
INTC: $0.204
MRVL: $0.169
CRCL: $0.109
GOOGL: $0.096
MSFT: $0.092
TSLA: $0.087
MSTR: $0.078
On fund flows, MU, MRVL, SNDK, and INTC saw open interest increases—while SPCX, SKHX, NVDA, TSLA, MSTR, AMD, GOOGL, and MSFT experienced reductions.
Sector Momentum Watch
Semiconductor Sector surged over 6%
- Key names: SanDisk +11%, Intel +10%, Micron +8%, TSMC & Qualcomm +6%, NXP & Broadcom & WD & Applied Materials & AMD +4%, ASML +3%, NVIDIA +2.95%. Multiple stocks hit record closing highs.
- Drivers: AI inference demand is accelerating beyond training into commercial deployment—creating a compute gap far exceeding supply. Bernstein Senior Analyst Rasgon called this “the first true chip supercycle” of his career: industry revenue jumped from >$800 billion last year, targeting $1.3 trillion this year. Capacity constraints are spreading beyond GPUs to HBM memory, semiconductor equipment, power supply, and custom ASICs. NVIDIA GPUs and Broadcom-style custom chips will coexist long-term in this expanding market to absorb massive compute demand. Amid geopolitical and macro uncertainty, AI stands out as the “most certain” growth theme—driving concentrated capital flows across the entire semiconductor value chain.
Market Implication: This momentum reflects more than short-term sentiment—it signals deepening AI capex cycles and supply-chain restructuring. Near-term beneficiaries include equipment, materials, and foundry segments; medium-to-long term success hinges on execution capability and yield ramp-up. Investors should monitor how Fed policy paths influence capex timing—and watch for diversified supplier opportunities beyond NVIDIA.
III. Deep Dives: U.S. Equities
1. Intel (INTC) – CEO Sets Long-Term Ambition
Event Summary: Intel’s new CEO Lip-Bu Tan laid out his strategic vision in a podcast interview—explicitly targeting a 10x return over 5–10 years. The company is systematically rebuilding its technology roadmap via EMIB advanced packaging, glass substrate innovation, and synthetic diamond materials to overcome traditional silicon physics limits. The explosion of Agentic AI is notably reviving CPU demand; foundry efforts focus on yield improvement and client trust rebuilding, alongside joint initiatives like Terafab with Musk-affiliated projects. Market consensus expects Intel’s full potential to unlock post-2030, with differentiated positioning in data centers and AI edge computing gradually materializing. Market Interpretation: Institutions broadly endorse this systemic transformation, seeing it not only aligned with AI’s shift from training to inference, but also building long-term moats via materials and packaging innovation. Analysts assess Intel’s potential within GPU/CPU hybrid ecosystems—especially strategic differentiation in NVIDIA-dominated landscapes. Execution risk and competitive pressure remain near-term hurdles, but long-term catalysts are clear. Investment Takeaway: Monitor yield improvements and Terafab rollout closely in the near term; longer term, Intel’s differentiated AI infrastructure role warrants strategic allocation—ideal for investors bullish on semiconductor cycle recovery.
2. Amazon (AMZN) – Expanding Custom AI Chip Sales
Event Summary: Amazon is actively negotiating external sales of its Trainium custom AI accelerators—a move aimed squarely at weakening NVIDIA’s absolute dominance in the AI chip market. AWS AI lead Peter DeSantis confirmed third-gen Trainium chips are nearly sold out, with strong demand for fourth-gen products. Leveraging internal scale, Amazon seeks to expand its custom-chip business from self-use to external sales—building a more complete AI supply-chain loop. Market Interpretation: This expansion is viewed as Amazon directly replicating—and challenging—NVIDIA’s playbook. Institutions see it reshaping cloud and AI hardware supply chains. Analysts believe Amazon’s massive data-center footprint and financing capacity could accelerate industry transition from NVIDIA-centric to multi-supplier competition—but technical iteration speed and ecosystem compatibility remain tests. Investment Takeaway: Watch Amazon’s diversification potential within the AI ecosystem; intensifying competition may reshape industry profit distribution; ideal as a long-term play on integrated cloud + hardware advantage.
3. SpaceX – Planning Massive Bond Issuance
Event Summary: Following its record-setting IPO, SpaceX plans to launch investor calls as early as this week to issue at least $20 billion in investment-grade USD bonds—replacing a $20 billion bridge loan due in 2027. The original bridge loan was syndicated by Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley—who will also lead this bond offering. Terms remain subject to change, but signal proactive capital structure optimization. Market Interpretation: Institutions view this as SpaceX’s critical step toward transitioning from costly bridge financing to stable, long-term debt—reflecting strong growth prospects and disciplined financial management. Successful issuance would lower financing costs and provide flexible capital for future expansion (e.g., Starship, satellite networks); investors will focus on cash-flow sustainability and valuation underpinning. Investment Takeaway: Bond issuance completion would significantly enhance financial flexibility—positive for long-term valuation; suitable for long-term investors focused on aerospace and high-growth tech infrastructure.
4. Energy Fuels (UUUU) – U.S. Government Backing Rare-Earth Projects
Event Summary: The U.S. government signed a conditional $725 million loan agreement with Energy Fuels to support domestic rare-earth separation and processing capacity—aiming to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. This initiative strengthens U.S. critical-minerals autonomy; UUUU shares rose over 8% Thursday on the news. Market Interpretation: Institutions regard this as a pivotal step in U.S. supply-chain security strategy. Amid geopolitical strain, demand for rare earths—vital for AI, EVs, and defense—is surging; Energy Fuels stands to benefit from policy tailwinds and long-term contracts. Investment Takeaway: Track loan disbursement and project execution near-term; long-term structural opportunities exist in U.S. rare-earth capacity expansion—ideal for investors focused on commodities and national-security themes.
5. Meta Platforms (META) – Data Center AI Compute Agreement
Event Summary: Meta struck a new agreement with data-center developer Crusoe to purchase ~1.6 GW of compute capacity across two sites—supporting AI infrastructure scaling. Crusoe’s existing signed capacity totals 4.9 GW, with a pipeline exceeding 40 GW. Market Interpretation: Institutions see this as Meta’s continued large-scale AI investment, signaling aggressive compute acquisition to bolster content recommendation, ad algorithms, and Llama model training—maintaining leadership in the fiercely competitive AI arena. Investment Takeaway: Monitor conversion efficiency of AI capex; longer term, Meta’s synergy between social + AI merits attention—ideal for investors bullish on digital advertising and generative AI growth.
IV. Market & Project Updates
1. Institutional reports note Bitcoin held its $59,200 low after multiple tests and rebounded 3.54% this week to close at $65,655. This rally stemmed more from exhaustion of selling pressure than fresh buying demand: futures open interest has dropped significantly from May highs; short-term holders sold at losses; exchange balances fell to a seven-year low—marking a phase of de-leveraging and sell-pressure release. Short-term holders remain ~17–19% underwater; potential overhead resistance remains heavy. BTC currently sits between two key ranges: cyclical realized-price support near $54,000 below, and short-term holder profit-taking resistance near $68,000 above—reflecting a “sell-pressure pause but no confirmed buy-side conviction” structure.
2. Cryptocurrency mining firm Ionic Digital released its May 2026 Mining & Operations Update, reporting 24.77 BTC mined—up 21.1% month-on-month—with zero BTC sold and zero debt maintained; total holdings rose to 2,861 BTC.
3. 10x Research analysis highlights potential flaws in BlackRock’s Bitcoin yield-enhancing ETF BITA: its strategy of selling call options may underperform spot Bitcoin in most market conditions—and fail to deliver attractive absolute returns.
4. Data: Tokens including H, XPL, and SAHARA saw major token unlocks this week—H’s unlock valued at ~$54.8 million.
5. Yesterday, Strategy—the Bitcoin treasury company founded by Michael Saylor—released another update on its Bitcoin Tracker. Per historical pattern, Strategy typically discloses its Bitcoin purchases the day after such announcements.
V. Market Calendar
June 23 (Monday)
Index Rebalancing Effective
- MRVL (Marvell Technology) added to S&P 500
- FLEX (Flex) added to S&P 500
- ALAB (Astera Labs) added to Nasdaq-100
- CRWV (CoreWeave) added to Nasdaq-100
- NBIS (Nebius) added to Nasdaq-100
- RKLB (Rocket Lab) added to Nasdaq-100
- TER (Teradyne) added to Nasdaq-100
June 24 (Tuesday)
U.S. Earnings
- FDX (FedEx) reports after-market close
June 25 (Wednesday)
U.S. Earnings
- MU (Micron Technology) reports after-market close
- Consensus EPS estimate: $20.70
- Consensus revenue estimate: $35.56 billion
- TCOM (Trip.com) reports after-market close
June 26 (Thursday)
U.S. Macro Data
- U.S. May PCE Price Index
- U.S. Q1 GDP Final Reading
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Key Events
- NVDA (NVIDIA) holds 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting
- Blackwell chip production progress
- Vera architecture chip progress
- AI ecosystem commercialization progress
- Capital return program updates
June 27 (Friday)
U.S. Macro Data
- U.S. June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Reading
To Watch (Timing Unconfirmed)
OpenAI
- GPT-5.6 series models expected next week
- Mini version
- Standard version
- Pro version
SK Hynix
- SEC approval of ADR listing application expected as early as week of June 22
- U.S. listing earliest possible in August
Institutional Views:
Top-tier investment banks widely agree that near-term markets are dominated by U.S.-Iran negotiation uncertainty and hawkish Fed signals. Oil gains geopolitical support, but broader risk assets remain pressured. Deutsche Bank’s rate-hike upgrade reinforces the “higher-for-longer” narrative—bearish for precious metals and growth equities; Goldman Sachs monitors spillovers into bond markets. Tech and AI sectors show pronounced divergence; the semiconductor supercycle thesis remains intact, though valuation and competitive risks warrant vigilance. Crypto leverage reduction offers potential rebound room; ETF outflows signal caution. Overall, institutions advise focusing on data validation and negotiation progress—maintaining neutral-to-cautious allocations and prioritizing protection against geopolitical and policy risks.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled via AI search and verified manually before publication. It does not constitute investment advice. Data herein may contain unavoidable inaccuracies—please refer to real-time market data for accuracy.
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