Those who wanted to buy have already bought: The retail frenzy around SpaceX has subsided, and real selling pressure is still expected in August.
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Those who wanted to buy have already bought: The retail frenzy around SpaceX has subsided, and real selling pressure is still expected in August.
This round of pump-and-dump involved only 5% of the circulating supply, and insiders can dump up to 44% of their shares by early September.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Tyler Durden (anonymous pseudonym of ZeroHedge)
Translation & Editing: Source: ZeroHedge
TechFlow Introduction: SpaceX plunged for three consecutive days, crashing 16.4% on Monday alone—erasing $600 billion in market value and falling back to its $150 IPO opening price. This analysis bluntly states that those who wanted to buy have already done so—and more critically, the real selling pressure has yet to fully materialize. The recent pump-and-dump maneuver involved only 5% of the float; insiders could sell up to 44% of their shares by early September.
The beginning was a bang. SpaceX went public on June 12, opening at $150—well above its $135 offering price. Within two days, aggressive traders began frantically buying call options expiring two days later with a $380 strike price, attempting to rocket the stock higher and trigger a gamma squeeze (a phenomenon where options market makers are forced to buy shares to hedge, thereby driving up the price).
@zerohedge tweeted: They’re really going for it.
In a report released this morning, Canaccord described the “new wave of optimism” accompanying SpaceX’s IPO as follows:
“SPCX’s trading activity signals the market has entered a new tier of frenzy. Prior to this historic IPO, AI-related optimism had already reached saturation—and at times, excess—but buying was largely driven by rational (albeit exuberant) institutions: large, well-capitalized public companies and private equity investors. In our view, SPCX opens a new chapter, marked by dramatically heightened retail participation—propelling the stock into the world’s top six by market capitalization and adding value equivalent to half of META’s market cap within its first week. Its market cap has already far surpassed that of its sister company TSLA, despite generating only about 20% of TSLA’s revenue. Despite the ‘Space’ in its name, its revenue is predominantly derived from connectivity services—Starlink contributed $11.39 billion, launch services $4.1 billion, and AI compute $3.2 billion in 2025.”
Vanda Track put it even more starkly. In a recap published earlier Monday, it wrote: “SpaceX’s first week post-IPO set records. Retail investors net-bought $405 million worth of SPCX shares during the first five trading days—the strongest retail participation in an IPO in recent memory. Buying intensity was extreme in the first few days before tapering off toward week’s end. The funding pattern increasingly resembles long-term position-building rather than chasing a short-term meme stock.”
Caption: Retail fund flows into SPCX over its first five trading days
Source: Vanda Track
Put into context, the scale of retail buying in SPCX becomes even more staggering. Last week, retail investors bought more SPCX shares than the combined total purchased across all other Magnificent Seven stocks—NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL, and GOOG—which totaled just $278 million over five days. Retail purchases of SPCX also exceeded the combined retail inflows into SPY and QQQ—the two largest ETFs—($352 million). A stock that only began trading last week is already competing with the market’s biggest individual stocks and ETFs for retail capital.
Caption: Retail buying in SPCX vs. retail buying in Magnificent Seven stocks
Source: Vanda Track
The old playbook played out again. As the stock surged, retail investors rapidly flocked to various SpaceX leveraged products—demand remained equally robust. During the first few trading days, retail investors purchased $65.8 million worth of Leverage Shares 2x Long SPCX Daily ETF—a sizable figure, though still far below typical levels seen during full-blown retail speculation frenzies. Even so, it dwarfed recent thematic ETF launches: Roundhill’s DRAM ETF attracted only $5.6 million in its first four trading days. It took DRAM 22 trading days for cumulative retail buying to surpass the amount already absorbed by the SpaceX leveraged ETF.
Caption: Retail fund flows into SPCX leveraged ETF vs.同期 thematic ETFs
Source: Vanda Track
After bursting out of the gate, momentum quickly fizzled—and the fantasy of “riding a reusable rocket straight into orbit via gamma squeeze” evaporated. June 16 marked the peak: SPCX hit an all-time high of $225, briefly surpassing Microsoft in market cap. Thereafter, daily retail fund flows collapsed, and retail turnover nearly ground to zero.
Caption: Daily retail fund flows into SPCX—precipitous decline after peak on June 16
Source: Vanda Track
This brings us back to Canaccord’s statement. Based on SpaceX’s early price action, the firm concluded that “tech stocks may sustain momentum in the near term”—but it simultaneously warned: “Beneath these stocks now lies a more perilous vacuum.”
Indeed, once momentum dissipated—and as the market realized trillions of shares were about to unlock—the stock fell for three straight days, culminating in Monday’s crash. That day, SpaceX issued over $20 billion in investment-grade bonds—its first such offering—seeking to refinance a much higher-interest bridge loan while bond markets remained euphoric and before the issuance window closed. SPCX promptly plunged 16.4%, erasing a record $600 billion in market value in a single day. Adding Wednesday’s 5% drop and Thursday’s 3.5% decline, the stock now trades barely above its $150 IPO opening price from two weeks ago.
Caption: SPCX price trajectory since IPO—from $225 peak down to ~$150
Source: ZeroHedge
Worse still, SPCX dipped to $150—the IPO opening price—in after-hours trading. If it opens below that level tomorrow, every investor who bought and held in the secondary market will be underwater.
Caption: SPCX dips to $150 IPO opening price in after-hours trading
Source: ZeroHedge
Notably, this pump-and-dump occurred when only 5% of the float was available for trading—95% of shares remain locked up. But that will change soon.
Caption: SPCX unlock structure—only 5% currently floating; 95% locked
Source: ZeroHedge
Jeff Jacobson, strategist at 22V Research, noted that a 20% insider share unlock will occur following SpaceX’s earnings release in early-to-mid August. Additionally, a 10% unlock is triggered if the stock price rises 30% above the IPO price; further 7% unlocks are scheduled around August 21 and September 10.
Caption: SPCX lock-up release schedule
Source: 22V Research
Jacobson estimates insiders could sell up to 44% of SpaceX’s shares by early September—expanding the current float by approximately 900%.
In other words, pushing the stock higher will only become increasingly difficult going forward. Meanwhile, Michael O’Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at JonesTrading, stated that “the sellers have reasserted control,” adding: “Everyone in the world who wanted to buy has already bought.”
Bloomberg, commenting on today’s decline, wrote that SpaceX’s drop “dragged down much of the broader market.”
Whether that’s truly the case remains uncertain. Yet in a market that has risen almost entirely on retail exuberance and momentum-chasing since March’s lows—once retail confidence wanes, SpaceX will be first, followed by the memory bubble, and ultimately semiconductor stocks that have feasted on AI-driven trading tailwinds…
@zerohedge tweeted: The divergence between hyperscale cloud providers and semiconductors is no longer sustainable: massive capital expenditures are the key variable.
…then it will be time to recite Eliot’s line in reverse: “The whimper of selling will become a bang.”
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