US Stock Trend (July 8): Oil Prices Surge Coupled with Samsung Earnings Release, Nasdaq Closes Down 1.16%
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US Stock Trend (July 8): Oil Prices Surge Coupled with Samsung Earnings Release, Nasdaq Closes Down 1.16%
If the Hormuz risk is resolved in the short term, declining oil prices will ease inflation expectations, and a rebound in tech stocks is expected to return.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: TechFlow Research
Affected by the tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, the US revoking Iran oil sales exemptions, coupled with profit-taking sell-offs triggered by Samsung's earnings release and other factors, tech stocks are under significant pressure. Brent crude rose over 6% intraday, the oil price rebound directly pushed inflation expectations, US Treasury yields rose across the board, and the 30-year US Treasury bond surpassed the 5% threshold. Defensive sectors and energy stocks took the lead, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a new low since June.
Market Performance
S&P 500 fell 0.45%, closing at 7503.85 points. Dow Jones fell 0.25%, closing at 52925.15 points. Nasdaq fell 1.16%, closing at 25818.69 points. Nasdaq 100 fell 1.77%, closing at 29173.017 points. Russell 2000 fell 0.90%, closing at 2982.488 points. VIX rose 3.60%, closing at 16.13.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.65%, closing at 12300.516 points, hitting a new closing low since June 10. Intel fell 10.1%, AMD fell 6.51%, TSMC ADR fell 4.23%, Western Digital fell over 7%, SanDisk fell over 7%. The US Memory Chip Index fell 6.8%. Nvidia rose 0.71% against the trend.
Meta rose 2.55%, Amazon rose 0.75%, Microsoft rose 0.54%, Google A rose 0.16%, Apple fell 0.64%, Tesla fell 4.02%. The energy sector rose 3.2%, Chevron rose 3.6%. Defensive sectors such as healthcare, insurance, and consumer staples saw capital inflows, Biotech Index ETF rose 1.50%, Energy Sector ETF rose 2.84%. The majority of components within the S&P 500 rose, and the equal-weight index outperformed the market-cap weighted index.
WTI crude closed up 2.7%, at 70.44 USD/barrel. Brent crude rose 3%, at 74.16 USD/barrel, rising over 6% intraday. Spot gold fell 1.2%, at 4114.57 USD/ounce. Spot silver fell 4%, at 59.51 USD/ounce. In terms of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin fell 1.06%, at 63363.99 USD; Ethereum fell 1.56%, at 1771.45 USD. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.54%, the 30-year surpassed the 5% threshold, hitting the highest since May 22. US Treasury yields across the board rose over 6 basis points. New York Fed inflation expectation data climbed to a three-year high.
Macro and Outlook
A commercial ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US Treasury subsequently announced the revocation of Iran oil sales exemptions; the original exemption was valid until August 21, and no new related transactions are permitted effective immediately. Oil prices reacted quickly; the key moving forward is the sustainability of the geopolitical conflict. If the situation calms within a day or two and oil prices fall, tech stocks may see a rebound opportunity; if the situation further escalates, the rally in defensive stocks may extend into next week.
Samsung's Q2 profit surged 19 times to hit a record, but the stock price fell 9% intraday. The market had already fully digested this bright expectation earlier; the earnings release instead became an opportunity for capital profit-taking. Investors' pricing logic for the company is shifting from 'how fast the growth' to 'how solid the cash flow'; this shift is expected to continue suppressing chip stock performance.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a new low since mid-June, reflecting the concentrated unwinding of momentum positions in the AI, chip, and storage sectors. Morgan Stanley strategists believe capital is flowing back to sectors that have underperformed this year, and structural rotation within the tech sector has become the key variable currently. The majority of components within the S&P 500 rose, indicating this is not systemic panic, but rather a structural adjustment.
Rising oil prices directly pushed inflation expectations, US Treasury yields rose comprehensively, and the 30-year US Treasury bond hit a new high since May. Meanwhile, the market also needs to absorb the 3-year Treasury auction and the issuance of Amazon's 25 billion USD corporate bonds. The climb in US Treasury yields exerts obvious pressure on tech stocks.
Microsoft sparked market attention by considering self-developed models to replace OpenAI and Anthropic products to cut costs. Additionally, US Senate Democratic members issued inquiries to Nvidia, Oracle, Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, and Amazon regarding Pentagon AI contract issues. Changes in the policy environment and adjustments in procurement strategies may affect performance growth expectations for AI chip enterprises.
TechFlow Perspective
Geopolitical conflict and profit-taking in the chip sector form dual pressure, sufficient in the short term to suppress tech stock rebounds. Samsung's earnings turning point is more symbolic; it marks the market pricing logic switching from 'growth theory' to 'cash flow theory', and high-valuation tech stocks will continue to be under pressure in the short term. The rotation into defensive stocks and energy stocks is natural; in an environment of surging oil prices and bond market pressure, the attraction of these sectors to institutions naturally rises. Improved breadth within the S&P 500 indicates this sell-off is more about position clearing than panic selling.
Whether the rotation can sustain depends key on the future direction of oil prices. If the Hormuz risk is resolved in the short term, falling oil prices driving loose inflation expectations, tech stock rebounds are hoped to reappear; if the geopolitical situation continues to heat up, the defensive stock lead trend may extend into next week, which will directly challenge the core logic of going long on tech stocks as the mainstream this month.
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