US Stock Trend (July 6): Gold and Crypto Rebound Ahead of US Stocks, Interest Rate Hike Minutes Set Weekly Direction
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US Stock Trend (July 6): Gold and Crypto Rebound Ahead of US Stocks, Interest Rate Hike Minutes Set Weekly Direction
If the minutes under Waller's lead are not more hawkish than market expectations, the futures rebound is likely to continue after Monday's open.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: TechFlow Research
Last Friday, the US stock market was closed for the Independence Day holiday, yet Nasdaq 100 futures surged over 1% against the trend, significantly cooling worry about the AI sector. Weekend Russia-Ukraine calls did not bring cooling down; instead, both sides escalated attacks, yet Middle East risk premium retreated early, and gold rebounded throughout the week to rewrite four consecutive losses. This week, Fed meeting minutes, tariff hearings, and SpaceX Nasdaq entry press on the market simultaneously; whether the bullish sentiment accumulated during the market closure can be realized depends on whether liquidity can hold up.
Market Performance
At the beginning of Monday's Asian session, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 1.2%, continuing the rebound momentum from last Friday's futures session. Spot gold rebounded 2.16% for the week to $4176.94/ounce, spot silver rose 5.52% to $62.4158/ounce; the strength of both reflects funds continuing to seek safe-haven exits during the US stock market holiday closure. Brent crude oil still fell 0.66% for the week to $72.12/barrel, falling for four consecutive weeks to create the longest record in nearly two years, mainly due to the retreat of Middle East risk premium. Bitcoin is currently reported near $63,600, up 0.8% in 24 hours, with a seven-day gain of 7.9%; Ethereum is reported at $1,784.58, up 15.1% in seven days, significantly exceeding Bitcoin's gain; the strength of high-volatility assets is usually seen as a leading signal of risk appetite.
Macro and Outlook
On Tuesday, SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index; the speed from listing to index inclusion breaks records, and passive funds tracking the index will be forced to buy accordingly; on the same day, the U.S. Trade Representative Office holds a hearing on imposing tariffs on 60 economies, trade friction risks are back on the table; the Sun Valley Annual Summit opens on the same day, heads of Apple, Amazon, Meta, and OpenAI will attend, but Jensen Huang and Musk cannot be found in this year's seating chart; who is absent is often more worth pondering than who is present; OpenAI scheduled the release date of GPT-5.6 at the juncture when the Claude Fable 5 quota scheme expires; such scheduling is hard to say is a coincidence; the arms race of AI models has intensified to the release schedule itself, and the pricing logic of chip and computing power-related stocks may be recalibrated accordingly.
On Thursday, the Fed releases the first meeting minutes presided over by Wosh after taking office; half of the committee members in the June dot plot already lean towards raising interest rates within the year; the market wants to see if tougher wording is confirmed in the minutes; two voting members will also speak publicly in the same week, but this round of speeches this year is scheduled much more sparsely than usual; such abnormal quietness has appeared around every policy turn in the past.
Around Friday, SK Hynix's US stock ADR is expected to list, with an issuance scale exceeding 45 trillion Korean won; this volume is enough to remind people of Alibaba's record-breaking US stock listing back then; sentiment for semiconductor and storage chain stocks may be driven thereby. This week, Fast Retailing, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, etc., release financial reports first, officially opening the prelude to US stock Q2 earnings; from July 9, overseas giant performance forecasts will enter the peak period.
TechFlow Perspective
The bulls' logic is very direct; futures rebounded in advance during the market closure, gold and cryptocurrencies strengthened synchronously, indicating risk appetite was not interrupted by geopolitical and tariff noise. The bears' concerns are equally clear; interest rate hike minutes, tariff hearings, and SpaceX Nasdaq entry superimposed in the same week; any link going wrong may cause the optimistic sentiment accumulated during the market closure to fail to materialize. The true watershed lies in the wording of the interest rate hike minutes; if the minutes led by Wosh are not more hawkish than market expectations, the futures rebound is likely to continue after Monday's opening; if the minutes confirm the tendency to raise interest rates, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will give pullback signals first.
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