US Stock Market Trend (July 13): Geopolitics Pushes Oil Prices Higher, Ending Four-Week Losing Streak; Earnings Season Kicks Off
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US Stock Market Trend (July 13): Geopolitics Pushes Oil Prices Higher, Ending Four-Week Losing Streak; Earnings Season Kicks Off
Geopolitics provides volatility, earnings reports provide direction; this week may set the tone for the US stock market's trajectory in the second half of the year.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: TechFlow Research
Iran formally ordered a complete navigation ban on the Strait of Hormuz last Friday. Commercial shipping monitoring shows only 11 vessels passed through the strait in the past 24 hours, touching a historic low in traffic volume. Brent crude oil accumulated a 5.39% gain for the week, ending four consecutive weeks of declines, recording the first weekly gain in five months. Market panic over geopolitical conflicts eased significantly after Trump expressed willingness to negotiate on Friday. However, US stock futures in Asian trading on Monday still dipped slightly, as the market awaits dense earnings reports and data this week for directional pricing. Wall Street's five major banks will report earnings on the same day Tuesday, Fed Chair Walsh will testify before Congress for the first time, and TSMC and ASML's performance will directly test the true quality of AI demand.
Market Performance
S&P 500 rose 0.42%, closing at 7575.39 points, up 1.23% for the week, hitting a new high in over a month. Dow rose 0.29%, closing at 52637.01 points, down 0.50% for the week, falling for the first time in five weeks. Nasdaq rose 0.29%, closing at 26281.607 points, up 1.74% for the week, rising for two consecutive weeks, closing positive for three consecutive sessions.
SK Hynix's US stock debut performed brilliantly, rising over 10%, hitting a new high since IPO. Meta rose 6%, hitting a new high since May 29, up nearly 15% for the week, rising for two consecutive days after releasing the paid large model. Nvidia led chip giants, rising 4%. Stablecoin first stock Circle rose 5%.
WTI August crude oil futures accumulated a 3.96% gain for the week, closing at 71.41 USD/barrel. Brent September crude oil futures accumulated a 5.39% gain for the week, closing at 76.01 USD/barrel, once rising over 3% intraday after the Hormuz closure news was announced. Spot gold fell slightly by 0.21% for the week, closing at 4104.1 USD/ounce. Bitcoin once broke above 64,000 USD, hitting a new high in over two weeks; offshore renminbi broke above 6.78 intraday, for the first time in over two weeks. US Dollar Index turned down briefly intraday on Friday.
10-year US Treasury yield rose about 8 basis points for the week to 4.56%, 2-year rose about 7 basis points for the week to 4.21%.
Macro and Outlook
Iran announced on Friday the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prohibiting all vessel passage until the US stops intervention. Commercial shipping data shows only 11 ships passed within 24 hours, with tankers and cargo ships dropping significantly. US Central Command subsequently stated the strait remains open for vessels passing legally, but commercial shipping data indicates actual passage trips have nearly stalled. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba announced retaliation against the US and Israel, while Trump responded that 1,000 missiles are already aimed at Iran. Geopolitical tensions escalated pushed oil prices to record the first weekly gain in five weeks.
The market's pricing logic for geopolitical conflicts is shifting. Trump expressed willingness to continue negotiations with Iran on Friday, 10-year US Treasury yield refreshed intraday highs before falling back, showing market expectations for continued conflict escalation are converging. Oil prices surged after the Hormuz closure news was announced, but gains narrowed significantly by Friday's close, indicating the market is gradually digesting this event, tending to believe the conflict is short-term controllable rather than full-scale war.
The opening of earnings season this week became the core focus of the market. Wall Street's five major banks JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup will report earnings on the same day Tuesday, this will be an extremely dense trading day. ASML is scheduled to release Q2 report on Tuesday, TSMC is scheduled to release full financial report on Wednesday. The performance of the three will directly verify the true prosperity of global AI chip demand. Analysts expect S&P 500 Q2 earnings per share to grow 24% year-over-year, among which technology companies contributed most of the increment. Current dynamic P/E ratio is about 20 times, valuation has tended to be reasonable, but whether enterprises can cash in this growth expectation will become the biggest suspense in the next two weeks.
Fed Chair Walsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, to explain the FOMC Monetary Policy Report. US June CPI and PPI data will be released simultaneously, these data will directly affect market expectations for the Fed's next policy path. Currently market implied probability for July rate hike is only 24%, but if inflation data unexpectedly strengthens, coupled with Walsh's possible hawkish statements, it will directly pressure US Treasury yields, and affect stock market valuations.
SK Hynix US stock listing subscription was hot, reflecting strong market expectations for memory chip demand. Long-term agreements are gradually locking global HBM supply, estimated by 2027, about half of global DRAM capacity will be unable to supply small buyers, structural advantages on the supply side are forming.
TechFlow Perspective
Monday Asian market futures dipped slightly, reflecting market wait-and-see sentiment between geopolitical shocks and the opening of earnings season. Geopolitical conflict escalation constitutes short-term pressure, but the market is digesting this as a controllable confrontation rather than full-scale war, oil prices falling from highs is proof. The core variable truly determining next week's direction is still earnings season data.
If the five major banks and TSMC, ASML's earnings confirm 24% earnings growth and AI demand continuation, the market is expected to break through geopolitical pressure and regain upward trend. If earnings show enterprises start to budget carefully on AI spending, current optimistic assumptions on AI investment sustainability will be pierced. SK Hynix's strong buying pressure may only be a one-week sentiment pulse, the true test lies in enterprises' subsequent actual capital commitments.
Next week's schedule is dense, every earnings report, every data item, every statement by Walsh could become a trigger for market repricing. Geopolitics provides volatility, earnings provide direction, this week may set the tone for US stocks in the second half of the year.
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