US Stock Market Trend (July 10): Geopolitical Conflicts Priced In by Market, Oil Prices Retreat, Chip Stocks Gain 3.06%
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
US Stock Market Trend (July 10): Geopolitical Conflicts Priced In by Market, Oil Prices Retreat, Chip Stocks Gain 3.06%
The real test comes from earnings season.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: TechFlow Research
After Iran launched counterattacks on US military bases, the market judged that the conflict between the two sides was controllable, and the oil price speculation ended accordingly. Brent crude fell 2.6% to close at $76, inflation expectations eased, and US Treasury yields declined across the board. Chip stocks seized this opportunity, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging 3.06%. Micron announced a $250 billion investment plan in the US, and SK Hynix's US listing was oversubscribed 7 times, directly driving the Nasdaq up 1.30% for two consecutive days of gains. Gold and Bitcoin both rebounded, and market sentiment shifted from geopolitical anxiety to anticipation for earnings season.
Market Performance
S&P 500 rose 0.81% to 7,543.64 points. Dow Jones rose 0.27% to 52,487.41 points. Nasdaq rose 1.30% to 26,206.89 points. Nasdaq 100 rose 1.62% to 29,727.097 points. Russell 2000 rose 1.22% to 2,992.541 points. VIX fell 6.27% to 15.84.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.06% to 12,960.003 points, strengthening for two consecutive days. Micron rose 4.5%, announcing a huge investment plan; SanDisk surged 7.6%, Arm rose over 9%, Nvidia rose 3.65%, Broadcom rose 3.20%. TSMC ADR fell slightly 0.03%, AMD rose 5.67%. Memory Chip and Hardware Supply Chain Index rose 5.11% to 227.13 points.
Meta rose 4.7%, hitting a new high since May 29. The Magnificent Seven index including Apple, Amazon, and Google rose 0.55%. Semiconductor ETF rose 2.48%, Technology Sector ETF rose 2.18%, Global Technology Stock Index ETF rose 2.06%. Consumer Staples ETF fell 1.40%, Energy Sector ETF fell 1.40%.
WTI Crude fell 2.4% to $71.87/barrel. Brent Crude fell 2.6%, falling back to $76, pulling back from a high near $80 during the session. Spot Gold rose 1.1% to $4,121.67/ounce. Bitcoin rebounded to $63,230, Ethereum was at $1,745.16. 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.55%, 30-year held above the 5.00% level. The US Dollar was under pressure and fell.
Macro & Outlook
Iran launched counterattacks on US military targets in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, but the market viewed this exchange of fire as a conflict within controllable limits. Oil prices immediately turned downward, with Brent falling back from near $80 to $76. The market consensus is that neither side intends to escalate further and prefers to maintain leverage through negotiations.
Eased inflation expectations were directly transmitted to the US Treasury market. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points; although the 30-year still held above the 5% level, auction demand was strong, indicating that long-end investors are beginning to reprice yields. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes gained room for correction.
Micron announced it will invest over $250 billion in new capacity in the US by 2035, which is a direct confirmation of AI chip demand. SK Hynix's US listing subscription multiple exceeded 7 times, and memory demand remains hot. These two pieces of news combined drove the entire chip industry chain upward.
Market focus has shifted to the upcoming earnings season. Analysts generally expect S&P 500 earnings per share in the second quarter to grow 24% year-over-year, with technology companies contributing most of the increment. The current expected P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is about 20 times, lower than 21 times a month ago. However, merely "beating expectations" is no longer enough to support continued stock price increases; companies also need to demonstrate that profit margins remain high, guidance is robust, and prove that AI-driven earnings growth has sufficient breadth to support valuations.
Chip stocks outperformed the Magnificent Seven. Goldman Sachs called this "breadth diffusion" rather than a comprehensive rise. Structural differentiation shows that risk appetite repair remains uneven. Downstream companies benefiting from AI investment even outperformed the investors themselves.
TechFlow Perspective
The geopolitical situation shifted from yesterday's repeated tug-of-war to being viewed by the market as "priced in" today; this transition took only one trading day. The market's logic is straightforward: Iran's counterattack is to maintain leverage for negotiations, not to truly fight a full-scale war. Once this expectation was established, the oil price falling from $78 to $76 was a natural result.
Behind the rebound in chip stocks are two overlapping signals: eased geopolitical risks cooled inflation expectations, and news from Micron and SK Hynix directly proved that AI demand is still expanding. These two signals resonated, causing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to strengthen for two consecutive days.
The real test comes from earnings season. The market has already priced in 24% earnings growth; the next question is whether companies can not only beat expectations but also prove the sustainability of this growth. If earnings reports show that AI investment scales have not significantly decreased, chip stocks still have further room to rise; if data shows companies are starting to cut costs carefully, the current rebound may be an overly optimistic pricing of Micron's huge investment plan.
Earnings season kicks off next Monday, which will be the moment to test market judgments.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
@chaoxiangooo
