Crypto Morning Brief: US CPI Declines for First Time Since 2020, DeepSeek May File for IPO as Early as This Year
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Crypto Morning Brief: US CPI Declines for First Time Since 2020, DeepSeek May File for IPO as Early as This Year
The tweet volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the X platform has dropped to a nearly 12-month low.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: TechFlow
Yesterday's Market Dynamics
IBM Stock Plunges 25%, Largest Single-Day Drop Since 1987
According to Bitget market data, IBM (IBM.N) plunged 25%, marking the largest single-day intraday drop since 1987. Previously, second-quarter revenue and adjusted profits both fell short of market expectations.
US CPI Falls for First Time Since 2020, Core Metric Flat
US consumer prices fell for the first time in six years in June, and a key metric measuring underlying inflation remained basically flat, which alleviated some pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% compared to May and rose 3.5% year-over-year. The core index excluding food and energy remained flat compared to May and rose 2.6% year-over-year.
The report shows that as the most severe period of energy price shocks triggered by the Iran war began to fade, the drop in gasoline prices in June brought some relief to consumers. Before the Federal Reserve meets at the end of this month, Fed officials may welcome this data; however, reignited US-Iran hostilities leading to rising oil prices again may prolong the inflationary impact triggered by the conflict.
As investors reduced bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in July, US stock index futures rose and Treasury yields fell. Data shows that core inflation indicators were suppressed, mainly attributed to falling prices of goods such as clothing and used cars. Motor vehicle insurance premiums also dropped significantly.
Masayoshi Son: Nuclear Fusion Will Replace Natural Gas in 15 Years, AI Bubble Theory Extremely Stupid
According to Sina Finance, SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son predicted that as power demand for AI data centers expands sharply, nuclear fusion will replace natural gas within the next 15 years to become a cheaper, cleaner major energy source. He expects that by 2040, the power capacity required by global data centers will reach 3 terawatts. Regarding voices questioning AI return on investment, Son strongly refuted them, stating directly, "People who propose the AI bubble theory neither understand AI nor have truly used AI in depth; this is an extremely stupid question." He also warned that if Japan fails to recognize the potential contained in AI, it will miss a huge wealth creation opportunity.
DeepSeek Preparing for IPO, May File Application as Early as This Year
According to Bloomberg, DeepSeek has begun preparations for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) and may file an application as early as this year.
Insiders stated that DeepSeek is collaborating with accounting firms and expects to complete financial reports by the end of December this year, which is necessary preparation for submitting an IPO application. The company plans to formally submit listing applications at the end of this year or early 2027.
New Hampshire Signs "Blockchain Foundation Act", Further Consolidating Status as Crypto-Friendly State
According to Decrypt, New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte signed Bill HB 639, the "Blockchain Foundation Act," last week, providing comprehensive legal protection for blockchain developers, miners, validators, and crypto users, and allowing for the establishment of a specialized blockchain dispute tribunal in the Superior Court.
Keith Ammon, the state representative and main sponsor of the bill, stated that this move aims to protect the basic rights of individuals to control digital assets through self-custody, and to provide a clear legal framework for next-generation fintech enterprises, attracting entrepreneurs, investors, and developers to the state.
Previously, New Hampshire became the first state in the US to pass a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill in May 2025, allowing state finances to invest up to 5% of public funds in Bitcoin and precious metal assets such as gold and silver.
South Korean Stock Market Funds Flow Back to Crypto Sector, Upbit 24-Hour Trading Volume Up 1426.2%
According to CoinGecko data, in the past 24 hours, Upbit trading volume reached $4.27 billion (up 1426.2% compared to the previous 24 hours), and the top five tokens by trading volume were:
BTC (Trading volume share 11.36%, turnover approx. $485 million)
XRP (Trading volume share 9.1%, turnover approx. $389 million)
USDT (Trading volume share 7.19%, turnover approx. $307 million)
ETH (Trading volume share 6.69%, turnover approx. $286 million)
XEC/eCash (Trading volume share 6.07%, turnover approx. $259 million)
White House Chief Crypto Advisor Patrick Witt to Take Military Leave at End of Month, May Impact Key Negotiation Process of "Clarity Act"
According to Crypto in America, White House Chief Crypto Advisor Patrick Witt will go to the Georgia Army National Guard for JAG (Judge Advocate General) training starting July 27, and is expected to end his work at the White House next Friday. The timing of this departure is sensitive, coinciding with Senate Republicans accelerating the promotion of crypto market structure legislation "Clarity Act", striving to complete legislation before Congress adjourns in August, otherwise this Congress may miss the window for passage.
Witt had previously postponed training originally scheduled to start in April to continue leading the "Clarity Act" negotiations, including coordinating core controversies such as stablecoin yields, ethical clauses, and law enforcement agency concerns, but a second postponement is no longer possible. During his absence, Deputy Director Harry Jung will take over relevant duties. Witt previously also led important policy issues such as the implementation of the strategic Bitcoin reserve and the landing of the "GENIUS Act"; whether he will return after training remains unclear.
SK Hynix Accelerates Mass Production of HBM4 for Nvidia
According to The Bell, SK Hynix has officially launched mass production shipments of 12-layer HBM4 for Nvidia, and the product has entered the capacity ramp-up phase. Different from previously supplied products which were all classified as samples, this is the first time HBM4 is facing Nvidia's next-generation AI platform "Vera Rubin" with final specifications completing all quality certifications.
It is reported that starting from September this year, SK Hynix will formally expand HBM4 shipment scale to fully undertake Nvidia's high-end computing power chip supply demand.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Tweet Volume on X Platform Drops to Nearly 12-Month Low
According to The Block, Bitcoin and Ethereum tweet volume on the X (Twitter) platform has dropped to a nearly 12-month low, with Bitcoin-related mentions at about 130,000 and Ethereum at about 40,000, comparable to levels in 2020 before institutions entered on a large scale.
It is worth noting that tweet volume is usually regarded as a rough indicator of retail investor attention. Current data shows that social heat on the retail side has fallen back to pre-2020 institutional era levels, while at the same time, institutional participation shows a completely opposite trend—tokenization has become a hot topic at major financial conferences and traditional financial media.
Analysts point out that historically low tweet volume often coincides with price stagnation or decline cycles. However, there is also a view that as institutional infrastructure becomes increasingly perfect, crypto market price trends may no longer rely on the drive of large-scale public attention like in the past.
Today's Market Performance
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Robinhood Chain Earned $800,000 in Two Weeks, Ethereum Only Received $1,500
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32529
Robinhood Chain created about $816,000 in revenue in just two weeks of launch, but 89% was taken by Robinhood itself, 10% went to Arbitrum, and Ethereum as the underlying settlement layer only received about $1,538 (0.15%). This controversy over revenue distribution once again pushes Ethereum to a core question: ETH won enterprise chain building, but did not win value capture.
Coinbase CEO Admits Base Content Token Strategy Failed, ZORA Down 95%, "Turning Page" to Trading and AI
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32519
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly admitted on the X platform that Base's content coins strategy pushed hard over the past year plus failed, stating "We messed up, it's time to turn the page." The core vehicle of this strategy, ZORA token, has plummeted about 95% from its high in August last year, causing losses for many participants. Base completed the pivot at the beginning of this year, and current resource priorities are trading, payments, and AI agents in order.
While You Are Still Figuring Out How to Use GPT, US Companies Have "Collectively Pivoted" to Chinese AI Models
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32515
Latest data from OpenRouter shows that US enterprises are embracing Chinese AI models on a large scale: the proportion of Chinese model calls has skyrocketed from less than 5% at the beginning of 2025 to a high of 46%, DeepSeek has become the platform's largest model supplier due to extremely low prices and high cost-performance, and the pattern where US AI models long occupied dominance is being rewritten.
All In Latest Podcast | OpenAI vs Anthropic IPO Showdown: Trillion Valuation, Price War, and China Open Source Pivot
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32510
In this All-In Episode 280, Friedberg is on leave, Brad Gerstner is substituting. The show starts with a trillion-level IPO race: SpaceX has successfully listed with a $1.75 trillion valuation, Anthropic secretly filed an application on June 1, and OpenAI is close behind. Gavin Baker predicts Anthropic's revenue this year may exceed $100 billion, and listing valuation could reach $3 trillion. Brad said without hesitation that Altimeter will buy heavily into both companies' IPOs.
But Chamath poured cold water. He found his company's token costs double every 45 days, and downstream productivity improvement is at most 5%. He asked Claude 5 a question: How much EPS growth did AI bring to the S&P 500? The answer is 50%. But removing the part where Nvidia sells chips to Amazon, the actual EPS growth of S&P 493 is only 9%, most of which comes from pricing power and buybacks above inflation, and the real AI ROI is between 0 and 2%. Chamath's judgment is: if you can list now, list now, while these numbers haven't seeped into the market waterline.
The latter half of the topic turned to China. Reuters reported CCP is considering restricting overseas access to China's top AI models, classifying AI research leaks as national security crimes. Sacks talked about this topic in Washington with the White House and Treasury Department, his judgment is: China's strategy is the same as Sam Altman's back then, open source before catching up, closed source after catching up. He also revealed there are distillation watermarks of US frontier models inside GLM-5.2, and the US government is likely to take action against distillation. At the end of the show, Brad spent nearly an hour talking about Trump Accounts, a plan to give every US newborn $1,000 to invest in S&P 500, the App opened 1.5 million accounts in 24 hours of launch, absorbing over $1 billion in deposits.
Morgan Stanley Research Report Interpretation: Nvidia's Biggest Problem is No One to Take Over
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32508
Growth of 95% last quarter, management says it is still accelerating, free cash flow yield exceeds 5% next year, over half may be returned to shareholders. This is the performance delivered by Nvidia. But the stock price just won't rise. After intensive communication with Jensen Huang and CFO during last week's roadshow, Morgan Stanley gave a counter-intuitive judgment: the problem is not in fundamentals, but in buyers. Nvidia's market cap size is already so large that there is not enough incremental capital to take over, and the largest potential buyer group may come from someone who rarely bought semiconductors in the past. At the same time, Nvidia is trying a new business model, exchanging credit support for revenue sharing of cloud services, creating recurring income with 100% gross margin beyond hardware. If this model works, the market's valuation logic for Nvidia needs to be rewritten.
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