XRP leads the rally as established altcoins rebound: a sign that altcoin season is returning?
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XRP leads the rally as established altcoins rebound: a sign that altcoin season is returning?
When will the curtain rise on the return of knockoff season?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Chandler, Foresight News
Bitcoin's price continues to hit new highs, surpassing the $99,000 mark and driving activity across the entire cryptocurrency market. Established altcoins are also stepping into the spotlight, with Ripple (XRP) standing out particularly. According to Bitget market data, on November 22, XRP broke through 1.4 USDT, currently trading at 1.416 USDT, surging over 30% in 24 hours.
Compared to the heated Meme market, these legacy altcoins have been quietly climbing—less flashy than Meme coins but steadily accumulating market attention through consistent gains.
Data from Kaiko shows that as of November 18, weekly altcoin trading volume has soared above $300 billion for the first time since 2021. Among this, DOGE, XRP, SOL, and PEPE account for 60% of total trading volume.
Since the beginning of November, XRP has quietly risen from around $0.50 to a high of $1.435, an increase of 182.4%, reaching its highest level in over three years. ADA climbed from $0.33 to $0.90, gaining nearly 170% this month; XLM surged from $0.09 to $0.294, up more than 220%. These signs suggest that established altcoins are gradually emerging from stagnation and reclaiming their positions through tangible performance.
If this trend continues, the revival of legacy coins combined with active interest in trending tokens could usher in a broader "alt season" across the market.
Gary Gensler Announces Upcoming Departure, Ending Years-Long Litigation?
XRP’s recent strong rally is driven by multiple converging factors, with shifts in market sentiment being the most immediate catalyst.
On July 13, 2023, when the court ruled that sales of XRP on digital trading platforms did not constitute securities offerings, Ripple secured a partial victory. However, the court found that Ripple’s direct sales of XRP to institutional investors were unregistered securities. It also ruled that individual XRP sales by executives Garlinghouse and Larsen did not violate securities laws. On August 7, 2023, the court issued a final judgment requiring Ripple to pay a civil penalty of $125.0351 million and prohibited the company from further violations of the Securities Act.
On October 3, the U.S. SEC stated it would appeal the Second Circuit Court of Appeals' prior ruling regarding Web3 payments firm Ripple, arguing that “the district court’s decision in the Ripple case conflicts with decades of Supreme Court precedent and securities law,” adding, “We look forward to presenting our arguments before the Second Circuit.”
However, with Donald Trump winning the presidential election, regulatory pressure may ease.
On November 22, according to the official SEC website, SEC Chair Gary Gensler will officially step down on January 20, 2025. Markets now anticipate significant changes in future regulatory conditions, raising hopes that lawsuits against companies like Ripple could soften, settle, or even be dropped.
Gensler’s long-standing strict stance toward the crypto industry—especially Ripple—has kept XRP under dual legal and market pressure. Now, signs of potential regulatory relaxation offer the market a renewed opportunity to reassess XRP’s value.
Data-wise, CoinGlass reports that open interest (OI) in XRP futures contracts has approached $2.44 billion, hitting a record high. This figure reflects unprecedented speculative enthusiasm for XRP. Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding and unsettled futures or options contracts, commonly seen as a key indicator of market activity and trader engagement.
Institutions Rush to Launch ETFs
Beyond regulatory easing, multiple institutions have begun filing for XRP ETFs.
On October 2, a Bitwise spokesperson confirmed the submission of an XRP ETF application, formally filed on Delaware’s government website. According to its S-1 registration document submitted to the U.S. SEC, the XRP custodian will primarily use cold storage to hold trust assets, transferring only limited amounts to hot wallets as needed for efficient basket creation and redemption.
A week later, cryptocurrency investment firm Canary Capital filed a registration application with the U.S. SEC for a spot XRP ETF called the "Canary XRP ETF." The fund aims to provide investors access to XRP without direct ownership, using CME’s CF Ripple Index as the pricing benchmark. Founder Steven McClurg said positive regulatory developments and growing investor demand for diversified crypto assets were the main drivers behind the application.
On October 16, Grayscale Investments submitted an application to the U.S. SEC to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). As of September 30, the fund was composed primarily of Bitcoin (74.7%), followed by Ethereum (18.55%), with the remainder including SOL, XRP, and AVAX. The firm previously converted both its Bitcoin and Ethereum funds into ETFs.
On November 2, 21Shares submitted an application to the U.S. SEC for an XRP ETF named the "21Shares Core XRP TRUST."
This wave of consecutive applications signals a steady recovery in XRP’s status within the crypto market, reflecting growing confidence in its future potential. With Ripple’s legal battle against the SEC making incremental progress, concerns about XRP’s legality have eased. Against the backdrop of approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, this surge in XRP ETF filings marks a significant step forward for the industry.
Is an Altcoin Comeback Imminent?
The CMC Altcoin Season Index is a real-time metric used to determine whether the current cryptocurrency market is entering an altcoin-dominated phase. Based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, it provides detailed charts and indicators to track market trends and altcoin market capitalization share.
Current index data shows the CMC Altcoin Season Index at 27/100, indicating that Bitcoin still dominates the market and altcoins have not yet entered a period of strong dominance. However, the trend over the past seven days is noteworthy. The index rose gradually from its low on the 17th and jumped significantly to 28 on the 21st, signaling a resurgence of market interest in altcoins.
Historically, while the current reading remains far below the annual peak of 50, it has clearly rebounded from the beginning-of-month low of 13. This upward trajectory may indicate that capital is beginning to rotate from mainstream assets like Bitcoin into the altcoin sector. Especially given the strong recent performance of legacy altcoins such as XRP and ADA, this trend could strengthen further.
At the same time, altcoin market capitalization is steadily rising. While growth has not yet reached a level sufficient to fundamentally shift market dynamics, the gradual stabilization and modest climb reflect subtle shifts in market sentiment. Investors are starting to reevaluate the value of altcoins and slowly shifting their focus toward these assets.
If this momentum sustains and maintains steady growth over the coming weeks, a true "alt season" may finally arrive.
Yet, based on the Top 100’s performance over the past 90 days, Meme coins—with their high speculation and social media-driven momentum—still maintain a firm grip on market attention in the short term.
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