Focus on the U.S. Treasury Secretary Nomination: Can the Crypto Industry Gain Another Ally?
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Focus on the U.S. Treasury Secretary Nomination: Can the Crypto Industry Gain Another Ally?
The nomination results will be announced as early as this week, with varying degrees of crypto-friendliness among the major candidates.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
As President-elect Trump's second term draws near, key positions within his cabinet have gradually emerged over the past few days. However, the race for the Treasury Secretary role has intensified.
According to current market expectations, the nomination for the next Treasury Secretary could be announced as early as this week, though Trump’s team has yet to finalize a decision. This morning, Fox Business journalist Charles Gasparino reported that Trump’s team has sought input from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and at least one other BlackRock executive. Additionally, Trump is scheduled to meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss personnel appointments for the incoming administration.
The prediction market Polymarket has already launched a betting pool on the Treasury Secretary position. As of around 10:00, trading volume in this market had surpassed $2 million. The following are currently the most likely potential candidates (limited to the top six, as others have minimal chances):
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Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh;
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Scott Bessent, founder of Key Square Group;
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Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald;
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Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management;
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Robert Lighthizer, former U.S. Trade Representative;
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Senator Bill Hagerty.
Currently, the market strongly hopes for a figure more favorable toward cryptocurrency to take control of financial policy, thereby providing the industry with a more lenient environment for growth. Below, Odaily Planet Daily will review each of these six potential candidates’ historical stances on the crypto industry.
Front-runner: Kevin Warsh
Firstly, it’s worth celebrating that Kevin Warsh, the current frontrunner for nomination (at 46%), has long been seen as a supporter of cryptocurrency—even before Trump shifted his own stance.
As early as early 2021, in an interview with CNBC, Warsh stated: "Bitcoin makes sense as part of an investment portfolio during times of economic weakness and a weakening dollar."
In 2022, Warsh invested in Bitwise, one of the leading forces behind BTC and ETH ETFs.
However, Warsh remains somewhat controversial due to his repeated support for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which may not sit well with the crypto community that values decentralization.
The latest update is that Trump’s team supports Warsh for Treasury Secretary, and Warsh has been invited to discuss the role at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, though discussions are still ongoing.
Soros’s Former Deputy: Scott Bessent
Scott Bessent, founder of hedge fund Key Square Group and former deputy to George Soros, was once considered the most likely candidate for Treasury Secretary. His nomination odds previously led Polymarket until Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent’s appointment, causing his odds to drop sharply.
As Musk criticized Bessent for being someone who would “just keep doing business as usual,” Bessent has been viewed as a more traditional figure. The Associated Press once labeled him a “crypto skeptic.”
However, as Trump has grown increasingly supportive of cryptocurrency, Bessent has shifted his stance. In July, he said: "I’m excited that the president embraces crypto. I think it aligns very well with the Republican Party—crypto represents freedom, and the crypto economy is here to stay."
The latest reports suggest Bessent may instead take on the role of Chair of the National Economic Council, although this remains unconfirmed.
The Man Behind Tether: Howard Lutnick
Elon Musk not only opposed Bessent but also publicly supported Howard Lutnick, co-chair of Trump’s transition team and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. Following Musk’s endorsement, Lutnick’s nomination odds surged—though they later declined amid rumors that Warsh might secure the position.
Lutnick himself is an unequivocal supporter of cryptocurrency and could even be considered the most pro-crypto among all the candidates.
Lutnick’s firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, manages over half of Tether’s stablecoin reserves. He personally spoke at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville and has advocated for classifying Bitcoin as a commodity similar to gold and oil. He has also called for clearer regulation within the cryptocurrency sector.
The Steward of $700 Billion: Marc Rowan
Marc Rowan, CEO of asset management giant Apollo Global Management, has only recently entered the list of potential candidates.
While Rowan’s company focuses on alternative asset investments, he has rarely commented publicly on cryptocurrency. In 2022, Rowan told Bloomberg that "the ecosystem built around crypto is absolutely astonishing." But earlier this year, when asked whether cryptocurrency would play a role in the future of the U.S. financial system, he replied that the topic was "beyond my comprehension."
According to the Financial Times, some Wall Street executives view Rowan’s potential nomination positively, though they also believe it would be difficult for him to leave his role leading Apollo Global Management, which oversees nearly $700 billion in assets.
The Architect of the 'Trade War': Robert Lighthizer
Robert Lighthizer has not clearly expressed his views on cryptocurrency, but markets should still pay attention to his potential appointment.
Lighthizer served as U.S. Trade Representative during Trump’s first term and is widely regarded as a staunch trade protectionist. Politico once described him as the "architect" of Trump’s tariff-driven trade war with China. Markets generally worry that Lighthizer’s appointment could negatively impact the vitality and stability of global commerce.
Champion of Crypto Legislation: Bill Hagerty
Tennessee Republican Senator Bill Hagerty has a relatively low chance of becoming Treasury Secretary, but as a sitting senator, he has actively advanced cryptocurrency-related legislation.
In October this year, Hagerty released a legislative discussion draft aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Investment bank TD Cowen noted in a report that this draft could serve as the blueprint for future legislation in 2025.
Hagerty has also voiced support for Trump’s initiative to make the U.S. a global cryptocurrency hub. In July, regarding the Bitcoin industry, he stated: "We need to make sure this happens in America."
A Regulatory Spring for Cryptocurrency
In summary, the identity of the next U.S. Treasury Secretary is expected to emerge soon. Judging from the list of potential successors, aside from Robert Lighthizer, whose stance remains unclear, most of the names currently in contention hold relatively friendly views toward cryptocurrency.
For the cryptocurrency industry, which has long struggled under strict regulation, the coming years may represent the most permissive regulatory environment in its history. This period of regulatory spring could become the best opportunity for all players in the space to pursue growth and innovation.
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