The trend of the United States embracing the crypto economy is irreversible | Uweb New York Study Tour Summary (Part 1)
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
The trend of the United States embracing the crypto economy is irreversible | Uweb New York Study Tour Summary (Part 1)
Wall Street is confident it is seizing dominance in crypto finance, but the two systems will coexist and interact for the long term.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: Meng Yan
On the eve of Thanksgiving, Uweb, Asia's largest digital asset education institution, organized a study tour to New York. I was fortunate to be invited and gained immensely from the experience. New York is undoubtedly the center of global capitalism and global finance, and is now becoming the center of the crypto economy. Despite the tightly packed one-week itinerary, the trip left me wanting more. This visit coincided with several key moments: the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, a temporary market correction in the AI sector amid widespread skepticism about its valuation bubble, and during our stay, a sudden overnight crash of over 10% in the crypto asset market. At this intersection of money and information—Wall Street—we were exposed to an intense flow of information. There’s much I could write about, but given the tightening regulatory environment for digital assets in China and the fact that this public account’s primary audience is domestic, I’ll skip vivid details and focus only on summarizing insights. While these views are presented by me, they originate from various experts and mentors who should rightfully be named and thanked. However, due to the sensitivity of Chinese online discourse, some names must be omitted to avoid unnecessary trouble for others. I hope you understand.
I’ve summarized nine key points, published in two parts.
1. The U.S. economy faces a dilemma between stimulating growth and curbing inflation
The current U.S. stance toward the crypto economy is first to "Americanize" it, so understanding the crypto economy requires a grasp of the broader U.S. economic landscape.
Two economists were invited on this tour to provide a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. economy, and their views were largely aligned: the U.S. economy currently exhibits structural contrasts. On the surface, economic growth is strong and inflation stable—appearing quite healthy. But under closer inspection, nearly all growth stems from AI investments, while structural inflation persists. Strip away AI-related sectors, and the economy is nearly stagnant. Trump’s push for "manufacturing renaissance" remains, at best, in its foundational stage, with no tangible results yet. Although headline CPI figures look good, service-sector inflation is severe—especially property insurance, which will surge in 2025. Long-standing issues like tipping not only remain unaddressed but are worsening. Combined with particularly difficult job prospects for this year’s graduates, ordinary Americans do not feel the same economic optimism seen during Trump’s early presidency. Economists describe this as "K-shaped growth"—AI-linked sectors soar while middle- and lower-class conditions deteriorate.
Americans are not like the Chinese. Chinese people may not care much about their personal well-being, getting excited over favorable macroeconomic data or passionately debating whether China can "defeat the West" in technological competition—truly selfless. But during our time in New York, we observed that Americans fall far short of such ideals. Even Wall Street elites prioritize whether life feels comfortable over questions of national victory. Thus, good-looking numbers alone don’t satisfy them; complaints are significant. If this continues, Republicans will likely lose at least one chamber in next year’s midterm elections.
Economists recognize this reality but disagree on solutions. Some insist December rate cuts are off the table, while others argue for prioritizing rate cuts to stimulate the economy. I once confidently asserted Powell wouldn’t yield, so near-term cuts were unlikely. Yet another seasoned financial expert believed the Fed couldn’t withstand pressure and would cut rates. Unexpectedly, our opposing views were reconciled by news that Powell plans to retire four months early in January next year. Trump’s appointee as new chair will swiftly push for rate cuts—allowing tough-guy Powell to preserve his reputation while strongman Trump achieves his goal. A happy ending for all.
Thus, despite the crypto market crash during our stay triggering widespread cries of bear market, I remain bullish on the future. Still, given current U.S. conditions, once rate cuts begin, inflation may immediately rebound. How long can this liquidity feast last?
2. AI is the sole engine driving U.S. growth
The U.S. GDP grew 4.1% in Q3, of which 4.0% came from AI-related activities—meaning U.S. growth is almost entirely AI-driven. Moreover, in venture capital, there’s already a “no AI, no investment” trend. Clearly unsustainable, this reflects an extreme phase of the current AI boom, but also highlights AI’s dominant role in today’s U.S. growth.
Prior to our New York visit, AI stocks dipped—Nvidia fell over 10% from its peak, Oracle over 30%. In Wall Street circles, AI investment bubbles became a hot topic. When I visited Silicon Valley in August, most VCs firmly rejected the idea of an AI bubble. But in November’s Wall Street, opinions differ—reflecting contrasting mindsets between innovation-driven and finance-driven perspectives.
Most on Wall Street believe current U.S. AI infrastructure spending is financially unhealthy—investments in AI data centers are simply not cost-effective. Some point out that companies like Nvidia report strong financials primarily because of orders from firms like OpenAI, which have committed $1.4 trillion in deals but generate less than $20 billion in revenue. Wall Street crunches the numbers—and the math doesn’t add up.
But does this mean AI is in a bubble? Even within Wall Street, opinions vary. Some say yes—the entire AI industry has weak revenues, unable even to cover interest costs. Others remain optimistic, believing AI applications are rapidly expanding and will soon significantly boost U.S. economic growth. Some even argue AI is accelerating American innovation in small modular nuclear reactors, hydrogen power, aerospace, robotics, and 6G—potentially enabling 10% annual GDP growth by the 2030s. If so, current AI investments—even if unprofitable in the short term—are fully justified. After the investment phase, markets will naturally adjust pricing to ensure long-term profitability for investors.
This view isn’t foreign to Chinese audiences. China’s high-speed rail system has operated at massive financial losses for years, yet many argue it boosted overall economic and industrial development, making short-term losses worthwhile. Similar voices exist in the U.S. During our stay, Trump signed an executive order launching the Genesis Mission, modeled after the Manhattan Project, using government resources to advance AI—a clear manifestation of this thinking.
3. Despite debate, U.S. adoption of the crypto economy is irreversible
A major purpose of this New York trip was to observe Wall Street’s attitude toward the crypto economy. Over the past decade, Wall Street has generally been anti-crypto. After nearly a full year of relentless promotion by the Trump administration, has this changed?
In my observation, change is underway—about 10–20% complete.
First, anyone claiming Wall Street has fully embraced the crypto economy is misleading. Wall Street remains Wall Street—having built over centuries the world’s most advanced, complete, and prosperous financial ecosystem, enjoying the wealth and power it brings. Satisfied with the status quo, it cannot share the enthusiasm of tech geeks for a technology that claims to disrupt—or at least transform—a financial infrastructure centered on itself. Skepticism and caution are inevitable. JPMorgan Chase stands as the main representative of anti-crypto forces. Unverified market rumors suggest the November 20 crypto market plunge was linked to JPMorgan’s shorting of MicroStrategy. Regardless of credibility, a powerful conservative faction within Wall Street still resists and opposes crypto—that’s undeniable.
Yet transformation is occurring. Traders and fund managers on Wall Street have long closely monitored and participated in crypto markets. But the real shift depends on institutional attitudes. Wall Street institutions aren’t monolithic—from banks to asset managers, investment banks to brokers, exchanges to hedge funds—different roles lead to different perspectives on crypto.
At least for some institutions, blockchain technology offers solutions to two key problems:
First, expanding financial services globally via blockchain. Especially amid de-globalization, blockchain can bypass regulatory barriers in countries with weak governance, allowing Wall Street to keep growing its business. In this sense, the higher other nations’ financial walls and the more blocked traditional channels become, the greater blockchain-based finance’s appeal to Wall Street.
Second, attracting younger generations. A growing headache for Wall Street: young people raised in the internet era are increasingly impatient with its outdated, cumbersome service models, preferring to trade crypto rather than engage with Wall Street. Offering financial services on blockchain could win them back.
As a result, more and more Wall Street institutions are considering blockchain, with RWA and DeFi emerging as current focal points. A senior Wall Street investment banker told me the Jewish community on Wall Street is already "stirring"—an important signal not to ignore.
However, based solely on Wall Street, I wouldn’t say the trend is irreversible. If we imagine a future administration reverting to Biden-era policies of full-scale crypto suppression, could Wall Street return to square one? Given that Wall Street hasn’t invested heavily in crypto yet, reversing course remains feasible.
But looking at the U.S. as a whole, the conclusion is clear: America’s embrace of the crypto economy is now irreversible.
During the trip, we met the head of a prominent Democratic family’s investment fund. She revealed that top Democratic leaders now recognize crypto as a youth-driven movement. During the Biden era, Democrats aggressively suppressed the crypto economy to appease Wall Street conservatives, alienating young voters—a non-trivial factor in their 2024 election loss. In today’s U.S. politics, older voters’ preferences are fixed; winning youth votes is decisive for both parties. Thus, even under future Democratic administrations, crypto policy won’t regress. She also disclosed that her family’s fund has made substantial allocations to crypto assets.
Meanwhile, some economists and central bankers we spoke with supported the crypto economy from another angle. One economist shared research showing that since the July 2025 Stablecoin Act passed, the dollar’s global usage has increased—indicating stablecoins are indeed strengthening the dollar’s position as expected. This strongly incentivizes lawmakers, driving Congress to actively advance the Market Structure Act.
Taken together, my view is that consensus among U.S. policymakers in favor of embracing the crypto economy is growing stronger. Under these circumstances, Wall Street will inevitably follow the tide.
4. Stablecoin payment use cases are primarily B2B, not B2C
I recall that before the July passage of the Stablecoin Act, the crypto community widely held optimistic expectations. Like many others, I anticipated that once enacted, dozens or even hundreds of major U.S. corporations would issue USD stablecoins, driving mass consumer adoption. Particularly for leading internet companies, issuing stablecoins to enhance their network effects seemed a natural move.
But none of this happened—at least not yet. While stablecoin issuance continues to grow steadily, there’s no visible expansion into e-commerce or offline consumer use cases. Why?
We discussed this with senior experts from banking and internet payment industries in New York and reached a startling conclusion: for the foreseeable future, stablecoin use in real-world payments will focus on B2B—inter-institutional transactions—not consumer-facing (B2C) applications.
This conclusion is shocking because within the crypto industry, countless entrepreneurs and researchers firmly believe stablecoins—with instant global settlement, integrated clearing and settlement, and ultra-low fees—hold overwhelming competitive advantages over traditional bank and internet transfers. Once promoted, they expect stablecoins to quickly dominate retail and e-commerce payment scenarios. Many investors and startups have poured vast resources into stablecoin payment tools, hoping to seize first-mover advantage. Yet over recent months, even technically and cost-efficient stablecoin payment products have faced immense resistance—some failing entirely to gain traction.
A leading expert in global electronic and internet payments analyzed the reasons. He noted that global stablecoin transaction volume reached $46 trillion in 2024—an impressive figure. But $37 trillion of that comes from automated trading bots on chains and exchanges. Of the remaining $9 trillion, most occurs within on-chain asset trading and transfers—real-world payments are negligible. Why? Because stablecoins offer no real advantage over credit cards or internet payments in daily consumer transactions.
He explained that stablecoin advocates assume fee savings of 1–3% alone can defeat traditional electronic payments—a complete illusion and arrogance. Traditional systems have built robust trust loops and ecosystems with powerful network effects, offering superior user experiences. Whether WeChat/Alipay users in China or VISA users in the U.S., payment experiences are already near-perfect. In a sense, VISA’s fees reflect the premium of its network effect. Stablecoins struggle to breach this moat.
So where lies stablecoin’s opportunity? The expert argues their real strength isn’t speed or low cost, but programmability through smart contracts. By programming stablecoins via smart contracts, structured and conditional payments become possible—e.g., automatic proportional disbursement upon receipt, or escrow-like third-party guarantee payments similar to Alipay. Such contract-based structured payments are extremely common in inter-institutional transactions—this is where stablecoins truly shine.
Therefore, he believes the current wave of innovation in the stablecoin space is "off track"—ignoring their true strengths and actual user needs while challenging opponents they cannot beat. The outcome, he says, is bound to be disappointing. The stablecoin industry should immediately refocus on B2B use cases, leveraging smart contract capabilities. This programmability represents the true dimension-upgrade advantage of stablecoins over traditional payments.
This insight was eye-opening for me. For years, we’ve collaborated with the Monetary Authority of Singapore on trials for stablecoin-based cross-border trade payments—all enterprise-to-enterprise, institution-to-institution scenarios. The anticipated B2C use cases never materialized. It dawned on me: if B2B is stablecoin payments’ primary domain, then enterprise wallets and corporate account management systems represent a critical weak link. That, perhaps, should be the real focus of innovation.
5. Wall Street is confident in seizing dominance over crypto finance, but two systems will coexist and interact long-term
If you’re a Chinese-speaking Twitter user overseas, spending just a short time observing the overseas Chinese crypto community gives a distinct impression: the center of the crypto economy lies in Dubai and Singapore. But this perception may be misleading—the epicenter is shifting toward New York.
During our week in New York, virtually every Wall Street expert we met expressed the same view: the crypto economy is transitioning from the retail era to the institutional era. To them, this shift is both an inevitable market evolution and a sign of U.S. institutional power reasserting itself. Once institutional players take the lead, the global crypto center will inevitably return to the U.S.—particularly New York and Miami. The former is the hub of capital, regulation, and compliance; the latter, with its open tax regime, innovative policies, and vibrant startup culture, has become the most active testing ground for integrating crypto with the real economy. Their reasoning is simple: Wall Street holds overwhelming advantages in capital scale, institutional strength, and talent, while the entire crypto market remains too small—its total size smaller than a single Wall Street stock. Faced with a true flood of capital and regulatory restructuring, the "decentralization" of decentralized finance may prove relative at best.
In their view, ongoing U.S. regulatory developments—the Stablecoin Act, the Market Structure Act, and future rules on crypto securities, custody, and trading—aren’t really about regulating retail investors or stifling innovation. Rather, they’re granting Wall Street a license for a "new frontier rush." Once the framework is set, institutional capital can enter en masse under legal protection, capturing pricing power,话语权, and liquidity control. From that moment, the rules, benchmarks, and even the ecosystem structure of the crypto market will be reshaped—centered around Wall Street.
Yet this doesn’t mean Asia’s offshore crypto ecosystems will vanish. On the contrary, Dubai and Singapore will remain vital hubs for global crypto innovation. They offer flexibility from regulatory gray zones, cultural inclusivity, and entrepreneurial dynamism—elements the U.S. system cannot fully replicate. Therefore, the future global crypto landscape will feature a "dual-system coexistence." New York represents the mainstream onshore ecosystem—institutionalized, financialized, dollarized—while Asia’s offshore ecosystem embodies openness, experimentation, and cross-border collaboration. These two systems will interact long-term, though clearly with a hierarchy.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
Yan Meng
