House set to vote as U.S. government begins "long restart"
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House set to vote as U.S. government begins "long restart"
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that a six-week shutdown would reduce fourth-quarter GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of approximately $11 billion.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Zhao Ying
Source: Wall Street Insight
According to media reports, the U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote Wednesday evening local time on a spending bill to end the record-long government shutdown.
The shutdown, which began on October 1, has now lasted 43 days, forcing hundreds of thousands of federal employees into furlough or unpaid work. Flight delays, disruptions in key economic data releases, threats to food assistance for millions of families, and closures of national parks and museums have occurred. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed optimism about the bill's passage, and the House Freedom Caucus has signaled support.
Senate Democrats previously insisted that any agreement to reopen the government must include an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. However, eight Democratic members ultimately defected, supporting the Republican proposal to reopen the government first and vote on healthcare subsidies by mid-December. House Democratic leaders urged their members to oppose the bill, citing its lack of healthcare provisions.
After the shutdown ends, the government will face a prolonged restart process. Returning to normal operations may take several days or even over a week, with payroll systems needing updates to cover back pay for multiple weeks, and backlogs in funding approvals, loan applications, and customer inquiries requiring clearance. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said flight restrictions would begin lifting within a week of reopening—just in time for the Thanksgiving travel peak. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a six-week shutdown will reduce fourth-quarter GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of approximately $11 billion.
Last-Minute Controversy Fails to Halt Process
A provision in the bill allowing senators to claim $500,000 if federal investigators collect their phone records without their knowledge sparked bipartisan backlash before the vote. The clause appears tailored to eight senators whose records were obtained during former special prosecutor Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
Several Republican lawmakers said they did not want to delay the government’s reopening over opposition to this provision, instead planning to repeal it later through separate legislation. Johnson said Republicans would introduce a standalone bill next week to eliminate the provision.
The House Freedom Caucus praised the appropriations package in a memo as “a comprehensive victory for HFC, conservative leadership, and messaging.” Victoria Spartz, a Republican House member who voted against the temporary funding bill in September, said she would now support this one. With Republicans holding a narrow majority in the House, most Democrats are expected to oppose the bill, though possible defectors include Representatives Jared Golden of Maine and Henry Cuellar of Texas.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Democrats would continue pushing for legislation extending healthcare subsidies, including a new bill proposing a three-year extension. At a press conference Wednesday, he said Democrats would pressure Republicans to back the proposal. “This fight isn’t over,” he said.
Restart Process May Take Days or Even Weeks
The government restart process cannot officially begin until the appropriations bill passes Congress and is signed by President Trump. The House could pass the Senate-approved legislation as early as Wednesday evening, but many agencies may not resume operations until Friday or even next Monday, depending on the speed of the legislative process.
Federal officials warn some shutdown-related restrictions will persist. Transportation Secretary Duffy said flight restrictions would begin easing within a week of reopening—timed just before the Thanksgiving travel rush. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said Thanksgiving holiday travel should be “fine.”
While federal employees will receive back pay, agencies warn that recalculating wages may take time. A 2019 law requires agencies to pay employees full back wages “as soon as possible” after a funding lapse ends. But after the 2019 shutdown, air traffic controllers took about two to two-and-a-half months to receive full compensation, said Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association.
Duffy promised faster action this time. He said controllers would receive 70% of their back pay within 24 to 48 hours of reopening, with the remainder paid about a week later.
Economic Impact Cannot Be Fully Reversed
Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said this is more of a stimulus than a shock for the economy—but the stimulus is growing larger. Government shutdowns lasting more than a few weeks leave lasting economic scars, and we’re only beginning to see that now.
A report released last month by the Congressional Budget Office found the combined impact of a six-week shutdown would reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points. Government reopening will reverse most effects, as back pay is distributed to workers. But there will still be a net GDP loss of about $11 billion. Some canceled travel plans won’t be rescheduled, and some federal contractors won’t recover all losses.
Shutdowns do not save government money. A bipartisan Senate report from 2019 found the shutdown cost the U.S. over $300 million in additional administrative work, lost revenue, and penalties. Moreover, although the White House laid off thousands of employees during the shutdown, funding legislation requires them to be rehired. Federal employees will receive back pay regardless of whether they were on duty.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will return to its regular payment cycle after weeks of uncertainty, following state-imposed delays and rationing of benefits. But this won’t happen immediately: states say they need up to a week to update beneficiary records and reload debit cards. With only two major card vendors, bottlenecks may occur when every state simultaneously seeks to restore benefits.
The shutdown also caused cancellations or delays in economic data releases. More importantly, no new price and employment data were collected, leaving policymakers with a data gap that could distort forecasts for months. Analysts estimate each additional week of shutdown costs the economy $10–15 billion. While back pay and paused federal spending can be reversed, economists say some costs from this record-long shutdown will never be recovered.
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