Crypto Morning Brief: Large Token Unlocks for TIA, OP, SUI This Week; U.S. Election May Trigger Market Volatility
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Crypto Morning Brief: Large Token Unlocks for TIA, OP, SUI This Week; U.S. Election May Trigger Market Volatility
Election could trigger significant market volatility, with delayed vote counting emerging as a key risk factor.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: TechFlow
Yesterday's Market Dynamics
Data: TIA, OP, SUI and other tokens face major unlocks this week, with TIA unlock valued at $900 million
According to data from Tokenomist.ai, several tokens will undergo significant token unlocks this week:
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Celestia (TIA) will unlock approximately 176 million tokens on October 30 at 20:00, representing 80.13% of the current circulating supply, worth around $900 million.
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Optimism (OP) will unlock about 31.34 million tokens on October 31 at 08:00, accounting for 2.50% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $50.15 million;
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Sui (SUI) will unlock roughly 64.2 million tokens on November 1 at 08:00, making up 2.32% of circulating supply, worth about $112 million;
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Immutable (IMX) will unlock around 32.47 million tokens on November 1 at 08:00, representing 1.98% of circulating supply, valued at approximately $43.52 million;
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ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock about 53.89 million tokens on November 1, accounting for 11.72% of circulating supply, worth around $36.6 million;
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Tribal Token (TRIBL) will unlock approximately 22.07 million tokens on October 31, representing 19.06% of circulating supply, valued at about $13.4 million;
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Cardano (ADA) and dydx (DYDX) will also unlock tokens worth $6.2 million and $8.1 million respectively.
Morgan Stanley: Election could trigger market volatility, vote-counting delays a key risk factor
Morgan Stanley analysts Monica Guerra and Daniel Kohen highlighted in a recent report that the 2024 U.S. presidential election may trigger significant market volatility, primarily due to risks such as delayed vote counting, economic uncertainty, and shifts in voter sentiment. The analysts emphasized that while political outcomes and corresponding policy changes may impact corporate earnings, business and economic cycles remain the key drivers of market performance.
The report specifically warned that tight races in key swing states, along with uncertainties surrounding the timing of mail-in ballot counts, could delay final results by days or even weeks. Additionally, unexpected political events—so-called "October surprises"—could influence the election outcome during the final stretch. Analysts advised investors to focus on long-term strategies and avoid overreacting to election-driven market fluctuations.
Moonshot to list AI agent concept coins ai16z and LUNA
On October 27, according to Moonshot Listings monitoring, Moonshot will list AI agent concept tokens ai16z and LUNA.
DEX share of spot trading volume vs CEX hits new high since May 2023, reaching 14.12%
On October 28, data from The Block and DefiLlama showed that DEX share of spot trading volume relative to CEX reached 14.12% in October, the highest level since May 2023.
This metric compares monthly DEX and CEX trading volumes and excludes flash loan transactions—where traders borrow large sums to execute high-volume trades before immediately repaying—to ensure data accuracy.
Vitalik: Ethereum Foundation avoids staking ETH to prevent stance conflicts during contentious hard forks
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin responded on social media to questions regarding why the Ethereum Foundation (EF) does not stake its ETH holdings. In response to community inquiries about “why EF doesn’t stake its ETH and instead relies only on income to cover expenses,” Vitalik explained that the main reason EF avoids staking is to prevent being forced into an “official stance” during controversial hard forks.
Vitalik revealed that EF is considering a new grant model allowing grantees to stake EF’s ETH and earn yield, offering support under the principle of “you can stake our ETH, you can decide how to stake it, as long as it’s ethical, and we retain upside potential.” He also noted that decentralizing legitimacy and resources across the Ethereum ecosystem is part of the solution, pointing out that there are now multiple trusted representative organizations within the ecosystem—a marked improvement compared to two years ago.
In response to criticism over EF’s regular ETH sales, Vitalik stressed that these funds are primarily used to support researchers and developers.
Coinbase launches Based Agent, enabling creation of AI agents with crypto wallet functionality
Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase launched a new tool called “Based Agent” on October 26. The tool allows users to create AI agents with crypto wallet capabilities in just three minutes, capable of executing on-chain transactions, token swaps, staking, and more. Lincoln Murr, a Coinbase developer, stated that the template is built on Coinbase SDK, OpenAI, and Replit platforms, requiring only a Coinbase Developer Project API key and an OpenAI key to use.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been actively promoting the application of AI agents in crypto. On October 23, he publicly provided a standalone crypto wallet for the AI chatbot Truth Terminal. Furthermore, James Ross, founder of Mode Network, predicted that by April 2025, over 80% of blockchain transactions could be executed by AI agents.
Willy Woo: Current altcoin cycle dominated by Meme coins, retail may finally understand the insider game
Crypto analyst Willy Woo posted on X, stating that after analyzing the performance of over 10,000 altcoins, he found the current crypto market is undergoing its third major cycle since 2017—one exhibiting entirely different characteristics from previous cycles. The first cycle began in 2017 when altcoins entered mainstream awareness, leading to substantial losses among retail investors. The second cycle occurred between 2020–2021, driven by the “innovation wave” of DeFi and NFTs, which again resulted in widespread retail losses.
The current third cycle is led by Meme coins. “Unlike the prior two cycles, Meme coins do not pretend to be disruptive world-changing technologies; they openly admit their speculative nature,” Woo noted. “This might mean retail investors are finally starting to grasp the risks involved—after all, people usually need three lessons to truly learn.”
Regarding Bitcoin dominance, Woo believes the market is still searching for long-term equilibrium. He said that although mid- and small-cap altcoins may rally following Bitcoin price increases, the intensity of such “altseasons” may weaken over time. He particularly cautioned investors about biases in altcoin market cap calculations, noting that the metric only reflects successful projects while excluding failed ones.
For investment advice, Woo reminded investors never to hold altcoins unless they have deep insider knowledge. “It’s fine to trade if you want, but unless you truly understand how things work behind the scenes, never hold altcoins long-term. This is essentially an insider’s game—like a casino—where the house always wins in the end.”
Magic Eden: Test token TestME claim open from October 29–31
NFT marketplace Magic Eden announced that claims for its test token TestME will be available from October 29 to 31. While TestME holds no monetary value, it serves as a critical step for users to familiarize themselves with the ME token claim process. Users from the United States and the United Kingdom are excluded from eligibility. Qualified users must complete the claim via the Magic Eden mobile wallet.
The platform emphasized that TestME eligibility does not guarantee qualification for the official ME token and urged users to beware of fake claim links, advising participation only through official channels. The sole claim portal will be available via the Magic Eden Foundation’s official X account. Holders are not required to retain TestME, and the platform explicitly discourages any trading activity involving the test token.
Standard Chartered: Bitcoin could reach $73K on election day, potentially hitting $125K by year-end if Republicans win
According to Bitcoin.comNews, Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, released a new report forecasting that Bitcoin could reach $73,000 on November 5, 2024—the U.S. election day. The report further analyzed that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could rise 4% immediately after the result is confirmed, with cumulative gains potentially reaching 10% within days.
The research team stated that if Republicans achieve a sweeping victory in congressional elections, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by year-end. In contrast, if Harris wins the presidency, Bitcoin might experience a short-term pullback, but is still expected to hit a new high of $75,000 by the end of 2024. This forecast is based on daily BTC volatility levels and analysis of major options strike prices.
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