NOT's meteoric rise: what factors drove the surge?
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NOT's meteoric rise: what factors drove the surge?
NOT has seen a significant increase, but may undergo adjustments.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthors: Defi_Mochi & Crypto Stream
Translation: TechFlow
Public data shows that the $NOT token has risen nearly 40% in the past 24 hours and over 280% in seven days.
What factors are driving NOT's surge? Analysts have offered explanations based on token structure, recent catalysts, and secondary market movements.
We’ve compiled and translated their insights below.
@CryptoStreamHub: Staking, Burns, and Secondary Market Manipulation
Why the surge?
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Staking functionality
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Project team burning $NOT tokens
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Market manipulators pushing up the price
One reason is reduced circulating supply due to staking and token burns by ecosystem projects.
Approximately 18 million $TON (about $350,000) has been burned and permanently removed from circulation (reducing selling pressure). While this may not seem like much, investors might anticipate further burns—after all, this is crypto, where valuations don’t necessarily need to be rational.
Another theory is that market manipulators are inflating the token’s price. $NOT is backed by Binance, and there's ongoing discussion about how Binance-supported tokens often rise mysteriously.
For example, I recently read an article titled: "The Binance Cartel is Real."
(Translator’s note: A cartel refers to a monopolistic structure; the author is implying potential manipulation of markets and specific token prices.)
Will the rally continue?
It's hard to predict. Personally, I would avoid buying this token now due to high risk. There are other tokens with better risk-reward profiles in the market.
On the other hand, more liquidity could flow from $TON into $NOT, as it is now considered a blue-chip ecosystem token.
Bullish case for $NOT
As widely known, $NOT is the token behind a popular social tap game on Telegram, which later added leaderboards and squad features. At its peak, it reached an astonishing 35 million users!
Today, $NOT is the primary token of the Notcoin ecosystem, where you can explore and play mini-games on Telegram.
Moreover:
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Listed and supported by Binance
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100% of tokens in circulation
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Leveraged bet on the $TON ecosystem
Bearish case for $NOT
After sharp rallies, tokens often face significant corrections, especially in hype-driven situations like the one we're seeing with $NOT.
As more investors buy in due to fear of missing out (FOMO), the likelihood of a correction increases. These investors typically lack strong conviction and can be easily scared off by broader market pullbacks.
Summary
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Large gains, likely correction ahead
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Ecosystem projects may分流 liquidity
NOT is the first "blue-chip" token in the TON ecosystem. By "blue-chip," we mean it has investor attention and support from both the $TON ecosystem and Binance.
It's certain that other tokens will follow.
A better strategy might be researching and identifying other tokens within the $TON ecosystem that could replicate $NOT's success.
If you decide to buy the token at current prices, pay special attention to your risk management framework.
Risk Management Suggestions
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Consider dollar-cost averaging
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Never invest more than you can afford to lose
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Anticipate how you’ll feel during a correction
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Develop additional risk management steps
@defi_mochi: Accumulating During Dips, TON BETA Narrative, and Low Circulating Supply
Over the past few days, the following projects achieved returns approaching 2-4x:
Here’s a method for executing this strategy to achieve large liquidity returns.
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Accumulation Phase
During periods of high volatility, market swings can cause many tokens to drop 60–70% in price.
While other traders complain about losses, these volatile conditions are actually ideal for observing market strength and accumulating positions.
Below is an example of $NOT accumulation during $BTC’s recent dip to $66k (May 23–24).
One way to confirm this is by monitoring the $NOT/$BTC ratio—when $NOT stops closely tracking $BTC’s downward trend, it indicates accumulation is taking place.
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Catalyst / Speculation
In recent weeks, speculation around a potential $TON listing has been intense, further boosting $NOT’s price, as $NOT is currently the only spot "beta" token directly linked to $TON.
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Low Market Cap / No Upcoming Unlocks
Although I've frequently discussed low-market-cap tokens with high fully diluted valuations (FDV), it's widely understood in the market that most market makers have incentives to create a "soft floor" (maintaining a minimum price level) and tend to pump prices when circulating supply is low, artificially inflating the project’s book value.
For this strategy, look for tokens with market caps under $5 billion.
Examples:
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$NOT 480m
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$TNSR 99m
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$BB 128m
Ensure the token has no upcoming unlock schedules that could depress its price. Be cautious—this is not the safest or risk-free strategy.
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@CryptoStreamHub
