Bitget UEX Daily Report | U.S. Government Shutdown Crisis Eases; Iran Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher; Gold Prices Rebound; Microsoft Earnings Results Mixed
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | U.S. Government Shutdown Crisis Eases; Iran Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher; Gold Prices Rebound; Microsoft Earnings Results Mixed
Trump signed an executive order to pressure countries supplying oil to Cuba.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Focusing on Balancing Growth and Inflation
- The Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5%–3.75% range, emphasizing steady economic expansion and a stabilizing labor market.
- Key points: No clear guidance on rate cuts was provided; inflation remains above target and requires continued monitoring; economic data supports gradual policy adjustments.
- Market impact: Supports equity market stabilization, but persistent inflation concerns limit expectations for further easing and may cap upside potential for risk assets.
International Commodities
Escalating Middle East Tensions Drive Crude Oil Prices Higher
- Iran conducted live-fire drills while the U.S. deployed additional destroyers, heightening geopolitical risk and pushing oil prices up.
- Key points: WTI crude futures rose 3.50% to $65.42 per barrel; Brent crude rose 3.38% to $70.71 per barrel; spot gold rebounded to $5,418 per ounce, fully recovering over $300 in prior losses and turning positive.
- Market impact: Energy stocks received support, but rising energy prices intensify global inflationary pressure—potentially influencing the Fed’s policy path and boosting safe-haven demand.
Macroeconomic Policy
Trump Signs Executive Order Targeting Nations Supplying Oil to Cuba
- The U.S. declared a national emergency and threatened tariffs against countries supplying oil to Cuba.
- Key points: Aims to compel relevant nations to adjust policies in line with U.S. security objectives; the order may be modified based on progress; also threatens to impose a 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft.
- Market impact: Disrupts global energy trade patterns, increases supply-chain uncertainty, potentially amplifies commodity price volatility, and affects international relations.
U.S. Treasury Does Not Designate Any Economy as a Currency Manipulator
- The Treasury intensified scrutiny of foreign exchange practices but refrained from accusing major trading partners of currency manipulation.
- Key points: Thailand was newly added to the monitoring list due to widening trade surplus; Japan, South Korea, and nine other countries remain on the list; emphasis placed on preventing competitive devaluations.
- Market impact: Eases some trade friction concerns, but enhanced monitoring may constrain emerging-market currency flexibility and reinforce the U.S. dollar’s relative strength.
Crypto Structure Bill Passes Amid Bipartisan Divide
- The Senate Agriculture Committee passed the CLARITY Act, with unanimous Democratic opposition.
- Key points: The bill focuses on crypto market structure; an amendment targeting Trump family interests failed to pass; Bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000 following the vote.
- Market impact: Advances regulatory framework development, yet partisan divisions exacerbate uncertainty—potentially dampening crypto sentiment in the short term while supporting long-term compliant growth.
II. Market Recap
### Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: +0.67%; consecutive rebound erased prior-day losses, entering an upward oscillatory channel.
- Spot Silver: +1.68%; technically strong, supported by both industrial demand and safe-haven sentiment.
- WTI Crude: −0.17%; rose for three consecutive days, driven by Iran-related geopolitical tensions and U.S. naval deployments.
- Dollar Index: +0.28%; weak dollar supported commodity rebounds, though the Fed’s steady stance capped further downside.
### Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: −5.83%; extended decline broke below $84,000, entering low-range consolidation.
- ETH: −6.00%; breached key support levels; ETF outflows intensified selling pressure.
- Total Crypto Market Cap: −5% to $2.95 trillion, pressured by weak tech equities and leveraged liquidations.
- Liquidations: Long-dominant; ~$899 million liquidated in past 24 hours.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.11%; stabilized consecutively, lifted by blue-chip stocks.
- S&P 500: −0.13%; pulled back after nearing record highs, with heightened volatility.
- Nasdaq Composite: −0.72%; weighed down by tech sector, with AI-related stocks showing divergence.
Tech Giants’ Developments
- Microsoft (MSFT): −9.99%; earnings beat expectations, but soaring capital expenditures raised profitability concerns.
- Meta Platforms (META): +10.40%; robust advertising revenue boosted investor confidence.
- Tesla (TSLA): −3.20%; lowered delivery forecasts intensified competitive pressures.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): +0.52%; sustained AI demand continues supporting chip business.
- Alphabet (GOOG): +0.71%; stable search and cloud services propelled shares to new closing highs.
- Apple (AAPL): −1.10%; market paused ahead of earnings, with emerging supply-chain challenges.
- Amazon (AMZN): −2.00%; e-commerce growth slowed; cost control became a focal point. Overall, tech giants showed divergent performance, largely driven by debates during earnings season around AI investment returns versus spending discipline—Microsoft dragged down the sector while Meta offered support.
Sector Movement Observations
Software Sector: −6.50%
- Representative stocks: ServiceNow (NOW), −9.80%; Salesforce (CRM), −6.20%.
- Catalyst: Despite Microsoft’s earnings beat, record-high AI-related capex triggered profit concerns, prompting broad sector-wide valuation re-rating.
Semiconductor Sector: +0.14%
- Representative stocks: Lam Research (LRCX), +3.59%; KLA Corp (KLAC), +3.53%.
- Catalyst: Sustained strong AI and chip demand, coupled with optimized supply chains and technological advances, pushed the sector to new all-time highs.
Memory Sector: +0.2%
- Representative stocks: SanDisk (SNDK), +2.21%; Seagate (STX), +0.82%.
- Catalyst: Data center expansion and positive earnings signals partially offset broader market volatility.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Microsoft – Sharp Post-Earnings Decline
Event Summary: Microsoft reported quarterly results exceeding revenue and profit expectations, but AI-related capital expenditures surged to historic highs—triggering investor concerns over near-term profitability. Shares plunged over 10% intraday and closed down 9.99%. While Azure cloud growth remained robust, monetization of AI initiatives lagged expectations, pressuring the broader software sector. Market Interpretation: Analyst views diverged: Goldman Sachs maintained a “Buy” rating, citing enduring long-term AI leadership; Morgan Stanley cut its price target, warning that rising capex could erode margins. Investment Insight: Short-term volatility presents buying opportunities, but investors should closely monitor AI revenue conversion. Diversifying across tech stocks helps mitigate single-event risk.
2. Meta Platforms – Strong Advertising Recovery
Event Summary: Meta’s earnings report revealed advertising revenue growth of 20%, surpassing expectations, fueled by Reels and AI-driven optimization—boosting user engagement and driving shares up 10.40%. Despite regulatory headwinds, the company announced increased metaverse investment, yet core business strength underpinned overall resilience and helped offset broader tech weakness. Market Interpretation: Analysts were broadly optimistic: Barclays upgraded to “Overweight,” highlighting digital ad market recovery; UBS acknowledged privacy regulation risks but underscored massive AI-driven growth potential. Investment Insight: Advertising cycle recovery favors long-term holding; investors may use user growth metrics as entry signals.
3. SanDisk – Earnings Beat Drives Surge
Event Summary: SanDisk posted strong quarterly results, benefiting from surging data storage demand and AI application expansion—revenue rose 15% and after-hours shares jumped nearly 14%. Supply chain optimization and capacity expansion supported gains across the memory sector, though intensifying competition warrants caution. Market Interpretation: Citigroup expressed optimism, citing expanding market share; Jefferies maintained a “Neutral” rating, citing raw material cost inflation risks. Investment Insight: AI infrastructure demand supports the upward trend; consider building positions on pullbacks and monitor M&A activity in the sector.
4. IBM – Consulting Strength Lifts Performance
Event Summary: IBM shares rose nearly 5%, buoyed by strong consulting and AI services demand—offsetting Microsoft’s drag. Cloud business growth accelerated, though hardware faced headwinds; total revenue met expectations. Market Interpretation: Deutsche Bank raised its price target, highlighting enterprise AI transformation opportunities; some analysts voiced concerns about intensifying competition. Investment Insight: Steady enterprise service growth merits attention; diversification helps reduce exposure to tech-sector volatility.
5. OpenAI – Preparing Q4 IPO
Event Summary: OpenAI is preparing for a Q4 IPO, having held informal discussions with Wall Street banks and hired new executives to aid preparations. Valuation has surged, yet regulatory and competitive risks persist—broader AI sector stands to benefit. Market Interpretation: Analysts are optimistic, expecting the listing to catalyze the AI sector; others caution against valuation bubbles. Investment Insight: The IPO may spark thematic investment enthusiasm; track regulatory developments and avoid chasing momentum blindly.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. Moonbirds opened $BIRB token claims; Nesting 2.0 is now live.
2. Garrett Jin, agent of the “1011 Insider Whale”, posted on X stating that multiple structural factors—trading cycles, market microstructure, and alleged market manipulation by certain exchanges, market makers, or speculative funds—explain why ETH and BTC did not rally alongside other risk assets.
3. Metaplanet raised $137 million to expand its Bitcoin reserves.
4. 21Shares launched a Solana staking product based on JitoSOL in Europe, enhancing European access.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 08:30 | U.S. | Durable Goods Orders | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 08:30 | U.S. | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 10:30 | U.S. | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 00:00 | Japan | Housing Starts YoY | ⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
- Trump announces nominee for Fed Chair: Morning—watch for potential monetary policy shifts and market reaction.
- OpenAI IPO preparation updates: Throughout day—track Wall Street bank discussions and assess implications for the AI sector.
Bitget Research Viewpoint:
U.S. equities dipped slightly amid Microsoft’s earnings drag, yet resilient macro data supports a rebound; U.S. equities are expected to outperform overseas markets through 2026. Gold volatility spiked sharply; silver rebounded strongly post-decline, supported by industrial demand. Crude oil faces lingering short-term oversupply risks. A modest dollar decline aided commodity rebounds. Crypto markets remained under pressure—BTC and ETH each fell over 5%, with $319 million in leveraged liquidations in the past 24 hours. Analysts warn that short-term safe-haven sentiment dominates, though regulatory clarity—such as Project Crypto—could bolster long-term confidence. Goldman Sachs recommends buying gold on dips; Morgan Stanley is bullish on the U.S. equity recovery.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled via AI search and verified manually prior to publication. It does not constitute any investment advice.
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