Bitget UEX Daily Report | Iran Confirms Death of Larijani; “Woodstock” Bullish on AI; Micron’s Stock Hits New High Before Earnings Release
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Iran Confirms Death of Larijani; “Woodstock” Bullish on AI; Micron’s Stock Hits New High Before Earnings Release
Short-term volatility is intensifying; investors are advised to monitor FOMC signals and EIA inventory data. If oil prices remain elevated, precious metals and cryptocurrencies will likely retain support, while U.S. equities may continue to diverge.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
Middle East Conflict Reinforces Fed’s “Hold” Consensus
- Nick Timiraos of the “New York Fed Wire” noted that escalating Middle East tensions have solidified market expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady this week, shifting focus from “when to cut” to “whether to cut.”
- Three key observation windows are the policy statement language, the dot plot projections, and Chair Powell’s press conference.
- Market impact: A hawkish signal would directly suppress rate-cut expectations, increase volatility in risk assets, and boost the U.S. dollar’s appeal.
Global Commodities
Geopolitical Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher Amid Volatility
- Brent crude stands at $103.05 per barrel; WTI crude at $94.78 per barrel—both pressured upward amid ongoing Middle East conflict.
- U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending March 13 will be released today at 22:30 ET.
- Market impact: Inventory changes may further amplify oil price volatility; combined with supply-chain disruption risks, this could intensify global inflationary pressures and affect energy-sector performance.
Macroeconomic Policy
Trump Weighs NATO Exit; Iran Accelerates Retaliatory Strikes
- Trump stated he could unilaterally decide to withdraw from NATO without congressional approval, expressing dissatisfaction with the status quo; Iran confirmed the death of Larijani and announced an accelerated campaign, having already appointed successors for key positions; the Israeli military threatened to hunt down new leadership figures.
- The EU has restarted the approval process for its trade agreement with the U.S.; the European Parliament’s Trade Committee will vote on Thursday—if approved, transatlantic friction may ease.
- Market impact: Elevated geopolitical uncertainty coupled with signals of trade de-escalation may support safe-haven assets; persistently high oil prices could compel the Fed to maintain a higher-for-longer interest-rate path.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot gold: Up 0.17% to ~$5,014/oz, consolidating near highs with resilience supported by geopolitical risk.
- Spot silver: Up 0.85% to ~$79.97/oz.
- WTI crude: Down 1.34% to $94.27/bbl—geopolitical drivers remain strong, but inventory expectations prompted profit-taking at elevated levels.
- Brent crude: Down 0.81% to $102.60/bbl—impacted similarly by Middle East supply disruptions but under intraday pressure.
- U.S. Dollar Index: Up 0.04% to 99.599, trading narrowly amid a balance between safe-haven demand and Fed rate-path expectations.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Down 1.54% over 24H to ~$73,800—continuing range-bound consolidation at highs, supported by institutional inflows but facing short-term pullback pressure.
- ETH: Down 1.13% over 24H to ~$2,321—adjusting with broader markets, with network upgrade expectations providing underlying support.
- Total crypto market cap: Down 1.13% over 24H to ~$2.61 trillion—relatively resilient amid geopolitical risk.
- Liquidations: ~$256 million liquidated over 24H—longs: ~$135 million; shorts: ~$121 million.
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price ~$73,800. A dense cluster of long liquidations exists between $72,500–$74,000; if price falls into this zone, cascading long liquidations and increased downside pressure may follow. Conversely, heavy short liquidation leverage is concentrated between $75,000–$77,000; a breakout above this range could trigger a short squeeze and accelerate upward momentum.
- Spot ETF Net Flows: BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of $30 million yesterday; ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows of $10 million.
- BTC Spot Flows: $2.83 billion inflow vs. $2.928 billion outflow yesterday, resulting in net inflows of $237 million.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): Up 0.10% to ~46,993—rising for two consecutive days, supported primarily by defensive sectors (e.g., utilities, financials). Trading narrowly within the 46,900–47,000 range, reflecting investor preference for value stocks amid risk-off sentiment.
- S&P 500: Up 0.18%–0.25% to ~6,716—energy sector strength (bolstered by high oil prices) drove modest gains; tech and growth stocks remained mixed. The index stabilized above 6,700, signaling cautious market balancing between inflation and rate-path concerns.
- Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): Up 0.47% to ~22,479—tech stocks diverged, yet AI themes and select cloud-service names rallied, lifting the index back into the 22,400–22,500 range. This reflects sustained institutional allocation to AI infrastructure, despite short-term volatility from geopolitical risk.
These results continue the recent rotation between defensive and cyclical stocks, with the DJIA and S&P 500 showing relative stability while the Nasdaq maintains resilience amid tech-sector divergence. Near-term attention centers on FOMC signals—hawkish commentary could prompt index corrections.
Tech Giants’ Updates
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Down 0.69% to $181.93—supported by AI platform progress and analyst buy ratings, but profit-taking emerged amid broader tech-sector weakness.
- Google (GOOGL): Up 1.75% to $310.92—optimism around AI and cloud-service competitiveness drove the rebound.
- Apple (AAPL): Up 0.56% to $254.23—stable expectations from new product launches and service ecosystem expansion eased supply-chain concerns.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Down 0.14% to $399.41—cybersecurity incidents and soft guidance drew scrutiny, though continued AI investment preserves long-term growth potential.
- Amazon (AMZN): Up 1.63% to $215.20—AWS AI sales forecasts and logistics optimization initiatives boosted investor confidence.
- Meta (META): Down 0.76% to $622.66—coexistence of metaverse restructuring and stable ad revenue was overshadowed by intensified short-term market fragmentation.
- Tesla (TSLA): Up 0.94% to $399.27—collaborations on battery plants and autonomous driving prospects supported the rebound.
Sector Rotation Highlights
Memory Stocks up >5%
- Key tickers: Western Digital (+9.64%), Seagate Technology (+5.59%), Micron Technology (+4.5% to $461.69—a new all-time high).
- Catalysts: Sustained AI data center demand, balanced by pre-earnings profit-taking and bullish sentiment.
China-U.S. Listed Stocks diverging
- Key tickers: Bilibili (+4.45%), Tencent Music (-24.65%).
- Catalysts: Sector rotation and divergent earnings expectations across individual stocks.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. NVIDIA — CEO Jensen Huang Significantly Raises AI Revenue Outlook
Event Summary: At the GTC 2026 keynote on March 17, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang significantly raised demand expectations, announcing that cumulative sales of Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI accelerator chips are projected to reach at least $1 trillion by 2027 (up from the prior $500 billion forecast for 2026). This figure covers only core AI chip products—not Vera CPUs, storage systems, or other business lines—meaning group-wide revenue is likely to substantially exceed this level. He also revealed plans to enhance shareholder returns in H2, allocating ~50% of free cash flow to share repurchases and dividends. Market Interpretation: Goldman Sachs, Bernstein, and others view this as a powerful rebuttal to market skepticism regarding the sustainability of AI capital expenditures. “Demand far exceeding expectations” further cements NVIDIA’s leadership in AI infrastructure and significantly enhances clarity on its long-term growth trajectory, potentially lifting its valuation anchor. Investment Implications: AI data center construction remains in its early explosive phase. Investors should closely monitor the actual execution of H2 buybacks and dividends—these not only directly support EPS but also provide additional valuation cushion in a high-rate environment. Simultaneously, tracking capacity delivery timelines is critical to assessing the feasibility of fulfilling $1 trillion in orders.
2. Apple — CEO Tim Cook Strongly Denies Retirement Rumors
Event Summary: In a March 17 interview with Good Morning America, Apple CEO Tim Cook explicitly refuted rumors about his imminent retirement, stating, “I never said that—it’s just a rumor,” and emphasizing he has worked at Apple for 28 years and “can’t imagine life without Apple.” This statement arrives during Apple’s 50th anniversary celebrations and a sensitive period of senior leadership reshuffling—delivering a vital stabilizing signal to markets. Market Interpretation: Analysts at Morgan Stanley and others see this as a positive development, viewing leadership continuity as instrumental in alleviating investor concerns about management instability—particularly at this pivotal stage of Apple Intelligence rollout, supporting long-term confidence in AI strategy and services ecosystem. Investment Implications: Executive stability serves as Apple’s moat through macro volatility; investors should track the pace of AI hardware application deployment and services revenue growth—these two segments are expected to drive top-line expansion over the coming years.
3. Meta — Further Contraction of Metaverse Strategy
Event Summary: Meta announced Quest headset users will no longer be able to access Horizon Worlds virtual spaces, shifting the platform’s strategic focus toward mobile devices. This marks another significant scaling-back of Zuckerberg’s original metaverse vision. The company is gradually reducing aggressive VR hardware investments, instead prioritizing core advertising operations and AI application development. Market Interpretation: Evercore ISI and multiple Wall Street banks view this as a rational, pragmatic realignment—concentrating resources on high-return areas improves profitability and capital allocation efficiency, enhancing investor confidence in overall operational quality amid persistent Reality Labs losses. Investment Implications: Short-term cost discipline and profit realization will support the stock; long-term, watch for viable commercial applications of VR/AR—if none materialize, related investments may continue weighing on valuation.
4. Micron Technology — Stock Hits All-Time High Ahead of Earnings
Event Summary: Micron’s share price surged 4.5% intraday to $461.69—a new record high—with YTD gains reaching 61.33%. The company will release its latest quarterly results after market close today; markets are keenly focused on its HBM and DRAM performance amid surging AI server demand. Market Interpretation: Multiple brokerages have raised their price targets, citing robust AI data center demand for high-performance memory as propelling the memory industry into an upcycle. Micron’s 2026 HBM capacity is nearly sold out, and rising market share alongside improving gross margins are expected to drive valuation re-rating. Investment Implications: An earnings beat and raised guidance tonight could catalyze a fresh rotation into memory stocks; investors should prioritize monitoring HBM capacity ramp-up, pricing trends, and supply-demand dynamics—the decisive variables for sustaining Micron’s premium valuation.
5. Amazon — AWS AI Sales Forecast Doubled
Event Summary: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, in an internal all-hands meeting, forecast that AI will propel AWS annual revenue to $600 billion by 2036—double the prior $300 billion expectation—and clarified that massive capital expenditures stem entirely from clear, robust customer demand signals, enabling rapid monetization once AI capacity goes live. Market Interpretation: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and others endorse this long-term outlook, seeing Amazon firmly capturing the AI cloud infrastructure wave. Expected shorter ROI cycles on capex will further widen AWS’s competitive moat, cementing it as the company’s primary profit engine over the next decade. Investment Implications: AWS’s AI monetization capability is central to Amazon’s valuation re-rating; investors should track cloud revenue’s share of total sales and capex execution efficiency—long-term positioning offers compelling upside and durable earnings elasticity.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. The U.S. SEC and CFTC jointly issued a 68-page cryptocurrency guidance document clarifying that most digital assets—including stablecoins and digital commodities—are not securities. It also outlines rules for mining, staking, and airdrops, delivering a clear regulatory framework for the industry.
2. Eight hours ago, BlackRock withdrew 2,449 BTC from Coinbase. Over the past two days, it withdrew 6,167 BTC from Coinbase and deposited 2,267 BTC.
3. Yesterday, Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF recorded single-day net inflows of $17.81 million. SOL spot ETFs have achieved cumulative net inflows of $803 million to date. As of publication, total assets under management (AUM) for SOL spot ETFs stand at $937 million, with a SOL net asset ratio of 1.73%, and historical cumulative net inflows totaling $989 million.
4. CryptoQuant notes that although Bitcoin exhibits bullish derivatives signals ahead of the Fed’s rate decision—including rising long positions, positive funding rates, and dominant buy-side order flow—it may face resistance between $75,000 and $85,000 if the rally persists.
5. Circle minted an additional 500 million USDC on Solana, bringing the total USDC minted on Solana in 2026 to $28.5 billion.
6. According to Kaiko, U.S.-based crypto exchanges’ spot market share has risen from 8% to 15% over the past year. BTC on-chain liquidity on U.S. platforms is now deeper and growing faster than on several offshore venues. Kaiko attributes this market-share rebound to improved institutional access, ETF-driven demand, and enhanced compliance, transparency, and operational resilience.
7. Based Foundation announced that the community token $BASED will undergo its Token Generation Event (TGE) on March 30.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 22:30 | U.S. | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| All Day | U.S. | FOMC Meeting Signals (Statement / Dot Plot) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
March 18 (Wednesday)
- U.S. February PPI data release;
- Micron Technology reports latest quarterly results—markets will scrutinize memory chip cycle signals, serving as a bellwether for the semiconductor sector.
March 19 (Thursday)
- Fed announces interest rate decision—expected to hold rates steady;
- Dot plot may signal only one rate cut in 2024, markedly narrowing from prior market expectations;
- lululemon reports latest quarterly results.
March 20 (Friday)
- FedEx reports latest quarterly results.
*This week’s U.S. equity theme centers on the Fed’s rate decision, economic data releases, earnings from Micron and others, and NVIDIA’s GTC conference—expect heightened volatility.
Institutional Views:
Wall Street analysts broadly note that the third week of Iran-related conflict has kept Brent crude above $103, reshaping the inflation trajectory. The Fed’s March 17–18 meeting is expected to hold rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% and may revise its 2026 dot plot upward, shifting focus from “when to cut” to “whether to cut.” Despite pressure, Bitcoin rose ~0.5% over 24H to ~$74,000—up nearly 5% since the conflict began, outperforming gold (flat) and the S&P 500 (down ~0.2%), buoyed by ETF inflows and the SEC/CFTC guidance. Goldman Sachs and Bernstein strategists emphasize Bitcoin’s transition from a risk asset toward “digital gold,” with geopolitical uncertainty reinforcing its safe-haven role; the energy sector stands to benefit from higher oil prices, while tech stocks face valuation adjustments. Short-term volatility is expected—monitor FOMC signals and EIA inventory data. If oil sustains elevated levels, precious metals and cryptocurrencies retain support, while U.S. equities may continue diverging.
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