Bitget UEX Daily Report | US February CPI to Be Released; Oil Prices Experience Sharp Volatility; NIO Achieves First Quarterly Profit
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | US February CPI to Be Released; Oil Prices Experience Sharp Volatility; NIO Achieves First Quarterly Profit
Institutions recommend monitoring CPI and FOMC developments; adopt a defensive asset allocation in the short term, and maintain a positive outlook on AI and energy transition themes over the medium term.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
Key Senator Agrees to Advance Fed Chair Nomination Process
U.S. Senator Thom Tillis has agreed to initiate the confirmation process for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair, citing him as an outstanding candidate.
- Key points: No additional responses from Warsh are required; the nomination may be temporarily paused by the committee; Tillis had previously pledged to block such nominations.
- Market impact: This development could accelerate leadership transition at the Fed and bolster investor confidence in policy continuity—though potential delays add uncertainty.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to Deliver Speech Today
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech today, likely focusing on the interest rate path and economic outlook.
- Key points: Exact timing remains unconfirmed; topics may include inflation and employment data; timing aligns with the upcoming release of February CPI data.
- Market impact: A dovish tone could ease market concerns over elevated interest rates and fuel a rebound in risk assets.
International Commodities
EIA Significantly Revises Up Annual WTI & Brent Crude Price Forecasts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) significantly raised its price forecasts for WTI and Brent crude oil in its Short-Term Energy Outlook for 2026 and 2027.
- Key points: 2026 Brent forecast revised up to $78.84/bbl (previously $57.69); WTI revised up to $73.61/bbl (previously $53.42); corresponding 2027 forecasts are $64.47 and $60.81/bbl.
- Market impact: Reflects persistent geopolitical risk premiums; may support energy stocks but intensify inflation expectations, indirectly pressuring global equities.
G7 Tasks IEA with Developing Oil Reserve Release Plan
The Group of Seven (G7) has directed the International Energy Agency (IEA) to assess the scale and procedures for releasing strategic petroleum reserves if supply disruptions occur.
- Key points: Spearheaded by France, the current G7 presidency; IEA Council to discuss the matter today; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly halted, worsening market conditions.
- Market impact: Offers potential supply buffer, helping moderate oil price spikes and stabilize commodity markets and global growth expectations.
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Disrupts Helium Supply
Iran-related conflict has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, halting operations at Qatar’s helium facilities and cutting off one-third of global supply.
- Key points: South Korea imports 64.7% of its helium from Qatar; critical semiconductor raw material shortage; bromine supplies also heavily concentrated in Israel.
- Market impact: Raises chip manufacturing costs, potentially triggering tech stock volatility and amplifying supply chain disruption risks.
Macroeconomic Policy
Trump Urges Iran to Clear Mines from Strait of Hormuz
U.S. President Trump urged Iran to immediately remove any mines it may have deployed—or face severe military consequences.
- Key points: Current mining activity appears limited, but Iran retains large inventories of small vessels and naval mines (2,000–6,000 units); removal would signal positive de-escalation.
- Market impact: Escalates geopolitical tensions—but Iranian compliance could alleviate energy supply concerns and boost risk assets.
U.S. Government Instructs Israel to Halt Strikes on Iranian Energy Infrastructure
The Trump administration has issued its first explicit directive to Israel to cease further airstrikes on Iranian oil and other energy infrastructure.
- Key points: Motivated by concerns over soaring oil prices and Iranian retaliation; strikes deemed a “last resort,” permissible only if Iran acts first; reported by three anonymous sources.
- Market impact: Limits escalation risk, reduces global oil price uncertainty, and supports stability in FX and equity markets.
U.S. Energy Secretary Deletes Post, Prompting Iranian Response
U.S. Energy Secretary posted—and then swiftly deleted—a message about U.S. Navy escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran dismissed the post as false.
- Key points: Actual naval escorts have not yet commenced; internal deliberations are ongoing regarding timing; Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that U.S.-led operations fall within missile range.
- Market impact: Highlights information chaos, exacerbating short-term volatility—but deletion may signal intent to de-escalate, easing safe-haven sentiment.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: +0.35% to $5,211/oz, supported consecutively by geopolitical risks.
- Spot Silver: +0.52% to $88.74/oz, tracking gold but with lower volatility, influenced by industrial demand.
- WTI Crude: -0.87% to $82.70/bbl, driven by Trump’s comments softening expectations of Iran-related conflict and reducing risk premiums.
- Brent Crude: -0.51% to $82.86/bbl, similarly driven by easing Strait of Hormuz supply concerns.
- Dollar Index: -0.1% to 98.83.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: +1.05% over 24 hours to $69,969, rebounding from recent lows—driven by recovering risk appetite and ETF inflows.
- ETH: +0.54% over 24 hours to $2,034.
- Cryptocurrency Market Cap: +0.8% over 24 hours to $2.46 trillion—driven by easing geopolitical tensions and renewed institutional demand.
- Market Liquidations: $297 million liquidated in 24 hours—$134 million longs, $169 million shorts.
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Cumulative short liquidations above $69,960 total $475.99M—far exceeding cumulative long liquidations ($33.75M) below that level. A rally could trigger massive short squeezes. Leverage clusters—especially 50x and 100x—are heavily concentrated around key levels including $70,000–$71,000 and $73,000–$74,000, potentially amplifying volatility and cascading liquidations.
- Spot ETF Net Flows: BTC spot ETFs recorded $61M net inflow yesterday; ETH spot ETFs recorded $12.6M net inflow.
- BTC spot flows: $3.529B inflow vs. $3.461B outflow—net outflow of $57.4M.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.07% to 47,706.51—retracing after earlier gains, sensitive to oil price swings.
- S&P 500: -0.21% to 6,781.48—with notable divergence between technology and energy sectors.
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.01% to 22,697.1—driven by strong performance among memory and optical communications stocks.
Tech Giants’ Moves
- Apple: +0.37%, lifted by anticipation of new product launches—but capped by broader market volatility.
- Amazon: +0.39%, buoyed by bond issuance to fund AI expansion and strengthen investor confidence.
- Meta: +1.03%, following acquisition of AI platform Moltbook to reinforce its AI ecosystem.
- Microsoft: -0.89%, reflecting broad tech sector pullback amid intensifying AI competition.
- Google: +0.22%, after launching multimodal model Gemini Embedding 2 to enhance technical competitiveness.
- NVIDIA: +1.16%, fueled by expanding AI chip orders and Groq’s 70% output increase.
- Tesla: +0.14%, aided by EV market recovery—but constrained by lingering supply chain concerns.
Sector Momentum Observations
Memory Stocks surged over 3%
- Examples: Micron Technology (+3%+); Western Digital (+1%+).
- Catalyst: Anticipated memory supply shortages, driving demand for PCs and AI-related applications.
Optical Communications Stocks rose nearly 6%
- Examples: Ciena (+~6%); Lumentum (+~5%).
- Catalyst: 5G rollout and data center expansion, benefiting from AI infrastructure investment.
Solar Stocks gained over 7%
- Examples: SolarEdge Technologies (+10%+); Enphase Energy (+~7%).
- Catalyst: Policy support for energy transition and rising renewable energy demand.
Rare Earth Stocks jumped nearly 13%
- Examples: Critical Metals (+~13%); NioCorp Developments (+~4%).
- Catalyst: Supply chain disruption concerns amid surging demand from EV and tech manufacturing.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Oracle – AI Orders Drive Stronger-Than-Expected Results
Event Summary: Third-quarter revenue and EPS both exceeded expectations by 20%; cloud revenue grew 44% YoY; Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) revenue surged 84%. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) jumped 325% to $553 billion—driven by large AI contracts and customer prepayments. FY2027 revenue guidance was raised to $90 billion (+34% YoY); FY2026 capex remains at $5 billion, with spending in the first nine months doubling YoY. The company expects no additional debt issuance needed in calendar year 2026. After-hours shares rose as much as 10%.
Market Interpretation: Analysts remain broadly optimistic—Goldman Sachs highlighted robust AI order momentum and raised its price target to $180, maintaining a Buy rating.
Investment Takeaway: With AI themes gaining traction, consider accumulating positions on dips to capture upside from cloud infrastructure expansion.
2. NIO – Achieves First-Ever Quarterly Profit
Event Summary: Q4 2025 operating profit reached RMB 1.25 billion; revenue hit RMB 34.65 billion (+75.9% YoY); gross margin stood at 17.5%. Vehicle deliveries totaled 124,800 units; gross profit on vehicles reached RMB 6.074 billion—up 100.8% QoQ. Cash reserves rose to RMB 45.9 billion (+nearly RMB 10 billion QoQ). Q1 2026 delivery guidance is 80,000–83,000 units (+90.1%–97.2% YoY); revenue guidance is RMB 24.48–25.18 billion (+103.4%–109.2% YoY).
Market Interpretation: Morgan Stanley views this as a turning point for the EV industry, upgrading its rating to Overweight and raising its price target to $15.
Investment Takeaway: Strong cost control and delivery growth suggest continued momentum—EV market recovery may propel further share appreciation.
3. Boeing – Wiring Issues Delay 737 MAX Deliveries
Event Summary: Scratches found on wiring of newly produced aircraft traced back to machining errors—leading to delayed deliveries of certain 737 MAX units. Repairs require several days per aircraft, affecting monthly progress—but the annual delivery target of 500 units remains unchanged. February deliveries totaled 43 units, down from 51 units last month—the highest since 2017.
Market Interpretation: Citigroup analysts expressed concern over supply chain stability, lowering their price target to $250 and maintaining a Neutral rating.
Investment Takeaway: Near-term delivery pressure is mounting—consider waiting for clarity on resolution before entering positions.
4. BioNTech – Co-Founders Transition to New mRNA Venture
Event Summary: Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci plan to join management of a new independent company by year-end. BioNTech will contribute mRNA technology rights to support next-generation innovation. The Supervisory Board has launched succession planning to ensure smooth transition. Shares plunged nearly 18% intraday.
Market Interpretation: UBS analysts hold mixed views—acknowledging innovation potential while flagging leadership transition risks; Neutral rating maintained.
Investment Takeaway: While the mRNA space holds long-term promise, near-term uncertainty remains high—caution advised during transition phase.
5. Amazon – Plans Bond Issuance of at Least $37 Billion
Event Summary: Launching USD and EUR-denominated bond offerings targeting $37–42 billion—potentially among the largest corporate bond issuances ever—to finance AI initiatives. The deal comprises 11 tranches, with maturities ranging from 2 to 50 years; the longest-dated tranche priced at a 1.55% premium. EUR portion may launch as early as Wednesday, with up to €10 billion in size.
Market Interpretation: Moody’s downgraded the rating to A2; S&P assigned a Negative outlook; Goldman Sachs maintains Buy rating, citing AI investment upside.
Investment Takeaway: Financing strengthens AI positioning—long-term growth prospects remain compelling for value investors.
6. CRCL – Stablecoin Adoption Drives Strong Share Rally
Event Summary: Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares surged 86% over the past month, adding nearly 10% Monday to trade near $118—valuing the company at $27.79 billion. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $1.676 billion, benefiting from elevated USDC reserve yields. GAAP profitability is projected for FY2027. Though volatile post-IPO, strong Q4 results triggered short-covering, propelling shares upward from lows. Rising inflation expectations amid Iran conflict further amplify stablecoin demand in payments and AI agent use cases. Circle dominates the stablecoin market, with USDC commanding leading circulation.
Market Interpretation: Analysts remain upbeat—Bernstein raised its price target to $190, emphasizing stablecoin expansion across payments, commerce, and AI; Mizuho lifted its target to $100, viewing CRCL as a high-beta crypto proxy; average analyst rating is Buy, with a 12-month consensus target of $122.25—despite cost concerns, growth visibility remains strong.
Investment Takeaway: As stablecoin ecosystems expand, monitor geopolitical developments and regulatory shifts—accumulate on pullbacks to capture opportunities in crypto-native payments.
IV. Crypto Project Updates
1. According to data shared by Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart, the top 30 holders of spot XRP ETFs held approximately $211 million in shares as of end-2025, with Goldman Sachs holding nearly $154 million—the largest stake. Seyffart noted that only a “small fraction” of investors appear in 13F filings, as “the vast majority do not file 13Fs.” Another Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, Eric Balchunas, speculated these holdings stem primarily from XRP “superfans,” not typical retail investors.
2. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan reiterated in his latest memo that Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin. He emphasized that viewing Bitcoin as a competitor to gold in the global store-of-value market clarifies its long-term potential: the total global store-of-value market stands near $38 trillion—gold accounts for ~$36 trillion, Bitcoin ~$1.4 trillion (<4% share).
3. CoinDesk reported that Strategy executed the largest single-day STRC equity offering in history on Monday, raising capital to purchase roughly 1,420 Bitcoin. That day, STRC traded nearly $300 million—more than double its 30-day average volume of $124 million. The company also amended its Omnibus Sales Agreement to allow multiple agents to execute stock sales outside regular trading hours—enhancing financing flexibility for BTC acquisition via STRC.
4. Matrixport observed in its analysis yesterday that Bitcoin has remained largely range-bound since early February. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, weakening U.S. labor data, and broad equity market corrections—including sharp declines in Korean equities—Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience. Even amid weekend oil price spikes, BTC merely retested support near $66,000, which continues to hold. In prior reports, the firm noted increasing odds that Bitcoin regains strength and re-enters the $70,000–$80,000 range. As markets gradually digest the implications of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin may shed geopolitical noise and trend toward higher price levels.
5. DeFi platform Aave experienced a rare $27 million liquidation event triggered by an oracle pricing failure—an incident observers linked to updates in its risk assessment system—highlighting persistent stability challenges in DeFi.
6. Stablecoin growth may erode traditional bank profits, Jefferies analysts warned—digital dollar adoption in payments and crypto markets could gradually drain bank deposits, forcing institutions to seek more expensive funding alternatives.
7. U.S. Senators proposed a compromise on stablecoin yield rules to break the deadlock on the Crypto Clarity Act—potentially accelerating legislative progress and delivering regulatory clarity.
8. Aptos will unlock $10.88 million worth of 11.31 million APT tokens on March 12, representing 0.69% of circulating supply. With 69% of supply staked, selling pressure may ease—but market absorption warrants close monitoring.
9. Virtuals Protocol, in collaboration with the Ethereum Foundation, introduced the ERC-8183 AI Agent standard and launched a $1 million monthly rewards program—its token rose 3.9%, aiming to incentivize user participation.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 20:30 | U.S. | Feb CPI YoY | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
March 11 (Wednesday)
- 20:30 — U.S. February CPI YoY (forecast: 2.4%);
- Fed Governor Michelle Bowman delivers speech;
- Apple launches iPhone 17e and new iPad Air.
March 12 (Thursday)
- 20:30 — U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending March 7 (forecast: 213,000);
- Adobe reports earnings after U.S. market close.
March 13 (Friday)
- 20:30 — U.S. January core PCE price index YoY (forecast: 3.1%);
- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba meets Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss Middle East developments.
Institutional Views:
Top-tier investment banks adopt a cautiously optimistic stance on 24-hour market action. Goldman Sachs notes gold and Bitcoin are testing key resistance levels—supported by Trump’s Iran-related remarks easing geopolitical risk and falling oil prices alleviating inflation fears—but warns that CPI data above expectations would reinforce hawkish Fed expectations and weigh on equities and crypto. JPMorgan observes sector divergence in U.S. equities, with tech giants benefiting from AI orders while energy drags overall performance; FX markets show strong dollar safe-haven demand, supporting gold and silver as hedges. Crypto’s rebound reflects ETF inflows and improved risk appetite—but Jefferies cautions that stablecoin expansion could squeeze bank margins and indirectly affect liquidity. Overall, institutions recommend prioritizing CPI and FOMC developments—allocating to defensive assets short term, while maintaining longer-term exposure to AI and energy transition themes.
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