Lessons from the performance of crypto assets beyond Bitcoin in previous bull markets
Author: BowTied Bull
Translation: Baihua Blockchain
As we enter 2025, it's customary at the turn of the year to reflect on the past and look ahead to the future.
Looking back at the history of the crypto industry, we can observe an interesting phenomenon: every four years, there is a so-called "altseason," during which everything in the sector seems to rise. You might even hear that your alcoholic uncle made a fortune buying some animal-themed meme coin—possibly while drunk.
In 2025, the real altseason hasn't fully arrived yet. While no one can predict how wild this cycle will be, I want to remind everyone that altcoin rallies typically escalate rapidly and may end just as suddenly. Once a crash begins, losses may not stop at -99.99%—they could go all the way to zero.
But until then, everyone is immersed in a mood of prosperity and entertainment. So, let’s take a moment to review previous altseasons—how did they unfold, and can we extract any valuable lessons?
2012–2013 Altseason: Early Enthusiasts, Peak Market Cap Reaches $15 Billion
We know that blindly following trends is likely to resurface among today’s market participants. This exact scenario played out in 2013—and the trajectory was quite fascinating.
During the 2013 altseason, Bitcoin was still in its early stages, with a total market cap around $1 billion and whale transactions averaging about $100,000. At the time, Mt. Gox was still operating, and many investors were enthusiasts from events like Magic: The Gathering trading card games (which also provides context for the later Mt. Gox incident).
Back then, people proposed improving Bitcoin transaction speeds by reducing block times—an innovation considered groundbreaking at the time.
Litecoin: Still active today, Litecoin’s core idea (proposed by Charlie Lee) was to shorten Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time to just 2.5 minutes.
LTC surged from around $0.10 to $48—a roughly 47,900% gain—and saw another major rally in 2017, after which Charlie Lee sold his entire holdings, stating “Bitcoin is fine without me.” (Everyone knows what it means when a founder sells 100% of their position.)
Namecoin: A Bitcoin fork aimed at creating decentralized domain names (a concept similar to ENS using ".eth" extensions). Its price briefly spiked to about $13 before crashing. From low to high, it gained approximately 30x. In fact, it still exists today, currently trading near $1.
Peercoin (PPC): One of the earliest Proof-of-Stake tokens (a mechanism now used to secure ETH), PPC experienced two major rallies—one in 2013 and another in 2017 during the ETH ICO boom. It once surged to around $7, marking a 60–70x increase. Naturally, it never achieved mainstream adoption and eventually fell to $0.42. (That said, unless something is a pure Ponzi scheme like Bitconnect or LUNA, most projects today don’t truly go to zero.)
The Hype: Bitcoin eventually reached $1,200, and increased interest in crypto lifted nearly all altcoins. Any project posted on BitcoinTalk could skyrocket purely on speculation. Today’s closest equivalent might be a celebrity-endorsed Memecoin or one named after a public figure.
Mt. Gox Collapse: When Mt. Gox collapsed, the party ended. A major hack triggered a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price—down roughly 85–90% depending on where you mark the bottom—while altcoins plummeted over 99%.
2017 Altseason: ICO Mania and Ethereum’s Rise, Peak Market Cap Hits $800 Billion
During the subsequent bear market, several pivotal developments occurred. Ethereum emerged as a smart contract platform designed to enable programmable money. This was genuine innovation—it didn’t just allow token transfers but enabled smart contracts, fundamentally changing the game.
Like many things in crypto, Ethereum came with familiar risks. The DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) was hacked, losing over $100 million, leading to a blockchain split into ETH and ETC. Some still believe the fork was a mistake, though we won’t debate that here—just noting the historical context.
By 2016, people realized new tokens could be issued on the Ethereum blockchain, giving birth to Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). In an ICO, projects directly sold tokens to investors. By 2017, ICO mania exploded, bringing countless scams and speculative ventures.
Ethereum (ETH): Demand for ETH to participate in ICOs drove its price from around $8 to nearly $1,400 in January 2018—an unimaginable return at the time. Today, ETH trades around $3,650.
Ripple (XRP): Still seen as the “banker’s coin,” the narrative was that Ripple would overnight replace SWIFT as the de facto financial standard. Despite being centralized (though most didn’t mind), it attracted millions. XRP soared from about $0.01 to $3.80 and currently trades at $2.41.
Oddly, XRP’s investor base remains largely retail. During the recent surge, similar patterns reappeared—XRP dominated TikTok discussions, sparking wild speculation like “What if it reaches Bitcoin’s market cap?”—talk of a “$4 trillion valuation” seemed surreal.
Litecoin (LTC): As previously mentioned, LTC rallied again, peaking at $360. Even after Charlie Lee sold all his holdings, it surged to $384 in 2021!
EOS: Raised $4 billion via ICO, branded itself the “Ethereum killer,” and briefly hit $22—but never reached new highs afterward.
NEO: Another self-proclaimed “Ethereum killer,” dubbed “China’s Ethereum.” NEO jumped from $0.20 to $200—a 1,000x return.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH): Roger Ver, a well-known figure in the Bitcoin community, supported larger blocks and championed Bitcoin Cash. At block 478,559 in August 2017, every BTC holder received 1 BCH. Backed by Ver, BCH surged to about $3,800 but gradually faded into obscurity.
Other Ethereum Killers: Several other tokens were marketed as “Ethereum killers” (e.g., ADA, Tron). Simply having a whitepaper seemed enough to trigger 10x or 100x gains. Others like Filecoin and Tezos launched during this period.
Yield Scams: If you think BlockFi, LUNA, Celsius, and Voyager were the first yield scams, think again! The first large-scale Ponzi yield scheme was Bitconnect, which cost many millions.
Regulatory Crackdown: Just like in the 2021 cycle, regulatory intervention and the collapse of Ponzi schemes devastated the market. The U.S. SEC began investigating projects like EOS, triggering a solid 85% correction. By March 2020, Bitcoin had dropped to around $3,500.
Most tokens at the time were outright scams, so the altcoin market crashed almost completely—close to -99.999999%. Back then, if your token got a Super Bowl ad, its price could instantly quintuple. VIBE was a classic example.
VIBE surged from $0.04 to over $2, but eventually its market cap collapsed to just $262.
2021 Altseason: DeFi, NFTs, and Memecoins, Peak Market Cap Reaches $3 Trillion
In 2021, due to well-known circumstances, everyone was working from home, staring at screens with nothing better to do. The U.S. government printed $10 trillion—just in federal spending.
DeFi protocols fueled liquidity mining, NFTs brought JPEGs into the mainstream (selling for millions), and memecoins reached absurd valuations. Bitcoin broke $69,000, ETH hit $4,800, and total crypto market cap surpassed $3 trillion in November 2021.
Dogecoin: Started as a joke, but Elon Musk’s interest sent its price parabolic, making it a hot topic on Reddit. Now, it’s practically Elon’s meme coin and symbol of government efficiency. It surged from ~$0.005 to $0.74—a ~15,000% gain.
Solana: Hyped as the next “Ethereum killer,” it attracted attention with fast transactions and low fees—largely promoted by SBF (now imprisoned). Price jumped from $1 to ~$260—a 26,000% rise.
Shiba Inu: A Dogecoin-inspired memecoin that minted thousands of paper millionaires. From near-zero market cap, it gained up to 500,000%.
DeFi Tokens: AAVE, UNI, SUSHI, YFI, and others rose between 10x and 50x. Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi surpassed tens of billions. Today, many DeFi protocols have even higher TVL than at their peak!
NFTs:
CryptoPunks: Sold for millions—cheapest Punk priced above 100 ETH.
Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC): Became a cultural phenomenon, with floor prices reaching astonishing levels.
Airdrop Mania: Longtime users with just a $100 .eth domain could receive $40,000 in airdrops. You could earn 2% daily or weekly yields just by bridging assets. Projects like BAYC airdropped dozens of high-value NFT collections—totaling billions in value.
Even crazier… nearly every token was pumping. Coins like SAFEMOON gained popularity through figures like Dave Portnoy. Celebrities such as Snoop Dogg and Paris Hilton endorsed various projects. Tom Brady and Stephen Curry promoted crypto exchanges. Even the now-defunct FTX paid for naming rights to the Miami Heat arena.
Ponzi Schemes: Massive Ponzi schemes flourished. While some blamed us for being involved, we weren’t. Fortunately, many avoided significant losses. Entrusting your assets to third-party yield products has never been a wise move.
Death Spiral: As liquidity dried up (with no more capital inflows to sustain them), these Ponzi schemes collapsed. Then FTX imploded due to stolen user funds, followed by renewed SEC enforcement. A wave of fraud and rug pulls ultimately ushered in a strict regulatory era for crypto on- and off-ramps.
Key Lessons
1) Take Profits Timely: Markets move fast, and greed creeps in quickly. If you catch yourself thinking, “I wish I’d bought twice as much of X,” then you should probably sell half and lock in gains. Whether you convert into Bitcoin, Ethereum, or stablecoins doesn’t matter—the key is avoiding greed.
2) Hype Cycles Repeat: Each altseason has a narrative theme: Bitcoin forks, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, or Memecoins. Once you identify a theme, stick with it—because knowledge built in one cycle often vanishes by the next. Rather than jumping around, focus on one area and ride it to success.
3) Risk Management Is Crucial: Returns can be huge, but everyone’s situation differs. You’re not me, and I’m not my neighbor. Build a personal strategy and stick to it—don’t let someone with $100K saying “$10M isn’t enough to retire” distort your goals.
4) Survivors Thrive: Altcoins come and go, but Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate every cycle. The longer a project survives, the lower its chance of going to zero. If Solana finds real utility beyond Pump.fun by 2025, it may reach similar resilience.
Have we learned from Ponzi schemes? Not really. Judging from current behavior, people still don’t understand the principle of “Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins,” You can buy crypto stocks or leveraged crypto products through brokers, but understand: holding ETFs or equities doesn’t mean you own actual cryptocurrency. You’ll never know how these firms manage or misuse your invested assets.
During bull markets, we're often criticized for not joining the latest memecoin craze. While such speculation may seem exciting now, careful observation reveals that those who stick to their strategies and stay calm are quietly accumulating wealth.
In contrast, speculators chasing quick “10x returns” may grab short-term attention, but their capital and strategies pale in comparison to anonymous whales who consistently invest month after month. These large players usually have stronger financial foundations and clearer long-term plans. Ultimately, market performance and data will show which strategy leads to real success.
Wishing everyone good luck in 2025.
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