Insights from the Review of Non-Bitcoin Crypto Assets in Previous Bull Markets
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Insights from the Review of Non-Bitcoin Crypto Assets in Previous Bull Markets
How to Survive in Bull Market "Traps"?
Dédié à des analyses Web3 approfondiesWritten by: BowTied Bull
Translated by: Baicai Blockchain
As we enter 2025, it's customary at this turning of the year to reflect on the past and look ahead to the future.
Looking back over the history of the crypto industry, we can observe an interesting pattern: every four years there is an "altseason," a period during which everything in the space seems to rise. You might hear that your alcoholic uncle made a fortune buying some animal-themed meme coin—possibly even while drunk.
In 2025, a true altseason hasn't fully arrived yet. While no one can predict how wild this upcoming cycle might be, I want to remind everyone that altcoin rallies typically escalate rapidly—and can end just as suddenly. When the crash comes, losses may not merely be -99.99%; they could mean total collapse.
Until then, everyone is immersed in a mood of prosperity and entertainment. So, let’s take a moment to review previous altseasons—how did they unfold, and what valuable lessons can we learn?
2012–2013 Altseason: The Early Enthusiasts, Peak Market Cap Reaches $15 Billion
We know that blindly following trends will likely bring familiar characters back into the spotlight. This happened before—in 2013—and the trajectory was particularly fascinating.
During the 2013 altseason, Bitcoin was still in its early stages, with a total market cap around $1 billion. A whale transaction amounted to roughly $100,000. At the time, Mt. Gox was still operating, and investors were often people who frequented Magic: The Gathering trading card events (which also provides context for the eventual Mt. Gox incident).
The idea of improving Bitcoin’s transaction speed gained traction—specifically, reducing block times—which was considered a profound innovation at the time.
Litecoin: Still active today, the entire concept (proposed by Charlie Lee) was to shorten the block time from Bitcoin’s 10 minutes down to 2.5 minutes.
LTC rose from about $0.10 to $48—a gain of approximately 47,900%—and surged again in 2017. Charlie Lee then sold all his holdings, stating “Bitcoin is fine without me.” (Everyone knows what it means when a founder sells 100% of their stake.)
Namecoin: A Bitcoin fork aiming to create decentralized domain names (similar in concept to ENS with ".eth"). Its price once spiked to ~$13 before crashing. From low to high, it appreciated roughly 30x. In fact, it still exists today, currently trading near $1.
Peercoin (PPC): One of the earliest Proof-of-Stake tokens (a mechanism now used to secure ETH), experiencing two major rallies—one in 2013 and another in 2017 during the ETH ICO boom. It once reached ~$7, a 60–70x increase. Naturally, it never achieved mainstream adoption and eventually dropped to $0.42. (That said, aside from outright Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect or LUNA, few assets today truly go to zero.)
The Hype: Bitcoin eventually hit $1,200, lifting all cryptocurrencies due to rising public interest. Any project posted on BitcoinTalk could skyrocket purely through speculation. Today, the closest equivalent might be a memecoin promoted by—or named after—a celebrity.
Mt. Gox Collapse: When Mt. Gox collapsed, the party ended. A major hack led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price—down roughly 85–90% depending on where you mark the bottom—while alts fell more than 99%.
2017 Altseason: ICO Mania and Ethereum’s Rise, Peak Market Cap Hits $800 Billion
During the subsequent bear market, many notable developments occurred. Ethereum emerged as a smart contract platform designed to enable programmable money. This was genuine innovation—it didn’t just allow token transfers but enabled smart contracts, fundamentally changing the game.
Like many things in crypto, Ethereum came with familiar risks. Its DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) was hacked, losing over $100 million, ultimately resulting in a blockchain split creating both ETH and ETC. Some still argue the fork was a mistake, but we won’t dive into that debate here—just noting the historical context.
By around 2016, people realized new tokens could be issued on the Ethereum blockchain, giving birth to Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). In an ICO, projects directly sell tokens to investors. By 2017, ICO mania erupted, bringing countless scams and get-rich-quick schemes.
Ethereum (ETH): Demand for ETH to participate in ICOs drove its price from ~$8 to $1,400 by January 2018—an almost unimaginable return. Today, ETH trades around $3,650.
Ripple (XRP): Still seen as the "banker’s coin," the narrative was that Ripple would overnight replace SWIFT as the de facto financial standard. Despite being centralized (though most didn’t mind), it attracted millions. XRP surged from ~$0.01 to $3.80, currently trading at $2.41.
Oddly, XRP’s investor base remains largely retail. In the latest rally, similar patterns emerged—XRP dominated TikTok discussions, sparking debates like “What if its market cap matched Bitcoin?”—talk of a "$4 trillion valuation" seemed surreal.
Litecoin: As mentioned, LTC surged again, reaching $360. Even after Charlie Lee sold all his coins, it climbed to $384 in 2021!
EOS: Raised $4 billion via ICO, branded itself the “Ethereum killer.” Peaked at $22 but has never reclaimed that high.
NEO: Another so-called “Ethereum killer,” dubbed “China’s Ethereum.” NEO rose from $0.20 to $200—a 1,000x return.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH): Roger Ver, a well-known figure in the Bitcoin community, supported larger blocks and backed Bitcoin Cash. At block 478,559 in August 2017, every 1 BTC holder received 1 BCH. With Ver’s backing, BCH briefly hit ~$3,800 but gradually faded from relevance.
Other Ethereum Killers: During this period, various tokens were marketed as “Ethereum killers” (ADA, Tron, etc.). Simply having a whitepaper seemed enough to drive 10x or 100x gains. Others, like Filecoin and Tezos, launched during this era.
Yield Scams: If you think BlockFi, LUNA, Celsius, and Voyager were the first yield scams, think again. The first large-scale Ponzi scheme in this space was Bitconnect, which cost many investors millions.
Regulatory Crackdown: As in the 2021 cycle, regulatory intervention and the bursting of Ponzi schemes devastated the market. The SEC began targeting projects like EOS. The market corrected sharply—down ~85%—and by March 2020, Bitcoin had fallen to around $3,500.
At that time, most tokens were pure scams, leading alt markets to drop nearly -99.999999%. Back then, if your token got advertised during the Super Bowl, its price could instantly jump fivefold. VIBE was a classic example.
VIBE surged from $0.04 to over $2—but eventually saw its market cap shrink to just $262.
2021 Altseason: DeFi, NFTs, and Memecoins, Peak Market Cap Reaches $3 Trillion
In 2021, due to widely known circumstances, people worked from home, glued to their phones and computers. The U.S. government printed $10 trillion—just in direct spending.
DeFi protocols fueled yield farming, NFTs brought JPEG images into the mainstream (selling for millions), and memecoins reached absurd valuations. Bitcoin broke $69,000, ETH hit $4,800, and total crypto market cap surpassed $3 trillion in November 2021.
Dogecoin: Started as a joke, but Elon Musk’s interest sent its price parabolic, making it a hot topic on Reddit. Now practically Elon’s official memecoin, symbolizing government efficiency departments. Price jumped from ~$0.005 to $0.74—an increase of about 15,000%.
Solana: Marketed as the next “Ethereum killer,” praised for fast transactions and low fees. Promoted heavily by SBF (now imprisoned). Price soared from $1 to ~$260—a 26,000% gain.
Shiba Inu: A Dogecoin-inspired memecoin that minted thousands of millionaires. From near-zero market cap, it appreciated by 500,000%.
DeFi Tokens: AAVE, UNI, SUSHI, YFI, and others saw gains between 10x and 50x. Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi exceeded hundreds of billions. Today, many DeFi protocols have higher TVL than during the peak!
NFTs:
CryptoPunks: Sold for millions; the cheapest Punk now costs over 100 ETH.
Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC): Became a cultural phenomenon, with floor prices reaching incredible levels.
Airdrop Frenzy: Longtime users of certain platforms could receive massive airdrops—owning a $100 .eth domain could net you $40,000. You could earn 2% daily or weekly yields just by bridging assets. Projects like BAYC airdropped numerous high-value NFT collections, totaling billions in value.
Even crazier… almost every token was rising. Coins like SAFEMOON gained popularity through figures like Dave Portnoy. Celebrities like Snoop Dogg and Paris Hilton endorsed various projects. Tom Brady and Stephen Curry promoted crypto exchanges. Even the now-defunct FTX paid for naming rights to the Miami Heat arena.
Ponzi Schemes: Countless Ponzi schemes emerged. While some accused us of involvement, we weren’t part of them. Fortunately, many avoided major losses. Entrusting your assets to third parties has never been a wise move.
Death Spiral: As liquidity dried up (the funding that previously propped up these projects disappeared), the aforementioned Ponzi schemes collapsed. Then FTX failed due to customer fund theft, followed by renewed SEC enforcement. Widespread fraud and rug pulls led the crypto industry into a strict regulatory phase.
Key Lessons
1) Take Profits Early: Markets move fast, and greed can creep in. If you catch yourself thinking, “I wish I’d bought twice as much of X,” it’s probably time to sell half and lock in gains. Whether you convert to BTC, ETH, or stablecoins doesn’t matter. The key is to avoid greed.
2) Hype Cycles Repeat: Each altseason has a theme: Bitcoin forks, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, or memecoins. Once you identify a theme, stick with it—because the knowledge you accumulate in that niche tends to vanish quickly when the cycle ends. Instead of jumping around, focus on one area and reap the rewards.
3) Risk Management Is Crucial: Returns can be huge, but everyone’s situation differs. You’re not me, and I’m not my neighbor. Create a personal plan and stick to it—don’t keep raising your targets because someone with $100K says “$10M isn’t enough to retire.”
4) Survivors Will Thrive: Altcoins come and go, but Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate each cycle. If a project has lasted this long, its risk of going to zero is relatively low. If Solana finds real-world utility beyond Pump.fun by 2025, it might join that tier.
Have we learned from Ponzi schemes? Not really. Judging from current behavior, people still don’t understand “Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins,” You can buy crypto stocks or leveraged crypto products through brokers, but realize: holding ETFs or equities means you don’t actually own any cryptocurrency. And you’ll never know how those companies manage your invested assets.
During bull markets, we’re often criticized for not chasing the latest memecoin hype. While such speculation may seem exciting now, careful observation reveals that those sticking to their strategies and staying calm are quietly building wealth.
In contrast, speculators obsessed with “10x returns” may grab short-term attention, but their capital size and strategies pale compared to anonymous whales who consistently invest month after month. These big players usually have stronger financial foundations and clearer long-term plans. Ultimately, market performance and data will show which strategy leads to real success.
Wishing everyone good luck in 2025.
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