Bitget UEX Daily Report | Oil Price Briefly Surpassed $110, U.S. Stock Index Futures Tumbled Across the Board, and Iran’s New Leader Takes Office
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Bitget UEX Daily Report | Oil Price Briefly Surpassed $110, U.S. Stock Index Futures Tumbled Across the Board, and Iran’s New Leader Takes Office
Analysts recommend diversifying allocations to safe-haven assets, closely monitoring the evolution of the Middle East situation, and avoiding excessive leverage.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
U.S. retail gasoline prices may breach $4, triggering a notable uptick in inflation. Surging oil prices have driven up gasoline costs, potentially intensifying inflationary pressures.
- The national average gasoline price reached $3.45 on Sunday, up 16% week-on-week.
- Analysts project prices will rise to $4, contributing an estimated 0.3–0.5 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase.
- Combined with ripple effects from diesel and food prices, the Federal Reserve faces heightened stagflation risks, possibly delaying rate cuts and impacting overall asset pricing.
Global Commodities
Major oil-producing nations cut output; WTI and Brent crude both surge past $100. Escalating tensions in Iran prompted production cuts among key exporters, sending oil prices sharply higher past critical thresholds.
- WTI crude surged over 21%, briefly exceeding $111 per barrel—the highest since July 2022.
- Brent crude rose over 15%.
- The UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq have initiated production cuts. Disruptions in Strait of Hormuz traffic have further tightened supply. This has disturbed global energy supply chains, elevated energy costs, and may amplify inflation risks while dampening economic growth.
Trump responds to soaring oil prices: Short-term price increases are a “worthwhile cost for security and peace”; prices will drop rapidly once threats subside.
- He emphasized that this cost is “negligible” for both the U.S. and the world.
- “Only fools would think otherwise.”
- Further escalation could push oil prices even higher, heightening market sensitivity to geopolitical risk and boosting safe-haven assets.
Macroeconomic Policy
Insider report: Trump administration plans economic agreement with Cuba. The Trump administration intends to sign an economic agreement with Cuba, relaxing multiple restrictions to improve bilateral relations.
- Measures include easing travel by U.S. citizens to Havana, providing President Díaz-Canel with an exit mechanism, and permitting the Castro family to remain on the island.
- Agreements involve port, energy, and tourism-related transactions, and contemplate lifting some sanctions.
- Trump leverages unique bargaining power to advance the deal, potentially reshaping regional economics and boosting trade and investment opportunities.
Mujtaba Khamenei elected Iran’s new Supreme Leader. Iran’s Assembly of Experts selected Mujtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, granting him authority over major state affairs and armed forces.
- Born in 1969, he is the second son of late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- Trump stated the new leader “won’t last long without my approval.”
- This leadership transition heightens geopolitical uncertainty, potentially affecting Middle Eastern stability and global energy market volatility.
U.S. official bluntly says “What the hell?”—U.S.-Israel rift emerges over strike on Iranian fuel depots. Israel’s strike on Iranian fuel facilities exceeded U.S. expectations, marking the first major divergence between the two allies.
- Israel struck 30 fuel depots on Saturday; although the U.S. was notified in advance, it was stunned by the scale.
- The U.S. fears infrastructure strikes could backfire—driving up oil prices and rallying Iranian public support.
- The rift underscores coordination challenges among allies, potentially tempering conflict escalation but amplifying short-term market panic.
The second plenary session of the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) Fourth Session will be held this morning. China’s NPC convenes its second plenary session to hear reports from the Standing Committee and the Supreme People’s Court and Supreme People’s Procuratorate (“the Two Highs”).
- Held at 9:00 a.m. at the Great Hall of the People, followed by the “Ministerial Channel” press interviews.
- The session focuses on policy direction and may signal new economic stimulus measures.
- As a pivotal annual event, it may influence Asian market confidence and cross-border investment flows.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot gold: Down 2.46% to $5,062.10/oz, marking two consecutive days of correction, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.
- Spot silver: Down 3.62% to $81.83/oz, with weak industrial demand exacerbating losses.
- WTI crude: Up over 21%, briefly surpassing $111/barrel, driven by geopolitical conflict-induced supply concerns.
- Brent crude: Up over 15%, briefly breaking above $110, primarily due to supply disruptions and production cuts.
- U.S. Dollar Index: Up 0.69%, briefly crossing 99.6, currently at 99.533—remaining strong.
According to JIN10, surging prices for crude oil and other commodities—including natural gas, metals, and agricultural products—triggered by Iranian hostilities have sent traders flooding into options markets. Unprecedented hedging activity by producers, airlines, and utilities has pushed crude oil’s implied volatility to exceptionally rare levels, while European natural gas implied volatility hit a new high since 2023. The CME Group reported that its energy complex set a single-day volume record of over 8 million contracts last Friday. Rebecca Babin, Senior Energy Trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, said: “This is clearly one of the largest volatility events of the past 20 years.”
The Strait of Hormuz—which normally handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments—is nearly paralyzed. WTI crude surged 12% last Friday and posted its largest-ever weekly gain of 35%. On Monday, oil prices surged past $100. The UAE and Kuwait have begun cutting oil output, worsening the supply crunch. Disruptions and price spikes in Middle Eastern LNG shipments have triggered ripple effects across metal and fertilizer producers. U.S. agricultural markets are also feeling the shockwaves. Options traders are betting that corn prices—already elevated—will climb further, driven by rising fuel costs and fertilizer supply constraints.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Down 1.19% in 24 hours to $66,508, continuing its correction amid deteriorating macro risk sentiment.
- ETH: Down 0.62% in 24 hours to $1,955.72, with weakening network activity testing key support levels.
- Total crypto market cap: Down 1.2% in 24 hours to $2.35 trillion, dominated by geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility.
- Liquidations: $341 million liquidated in 24 hours—$234 million longs, $107 million shorts.
- Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap: Current price ~$66,424. Dense long liquidations cluster near $65,000–$66,000; a break below may trigger cascading long liquidations and accelerate downside momentum. Heavy short liquidation pressure lies in the $68,000–$69,000 zone; a rebound and breakout could spark a short squeeze and rapid upside acceleration.
- BTC inflows/outflows: $2.045 billion inflow vs. $2.079 billion outflow yesterday—net outflow of $120 million.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
As of Friday’s close:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.95% to 47,501.55—under sustained pressure amid stagflation concerns.
- S&P 500: Down 1.33% to 6,740.02—dragged down by tech and financial sectors, reflecting low market sentiment.
- Nasdaq Composite: Down 1.59% to 22,387.68—semiconductor stocks led losses; drivers included cooling nonfarm payrolls and Middle East conflict.
Goldman Sachs notes that U.S. equities face stagflation headwinds, yet mega-cap tech firms show resilience; it forecasts a near-term S&P 500 rebound to 5,300.
Tech Giants’ Updates
- Apple: Down over 1% to [price unspecified], pressured by broader tech weakness amid stagflation worries dampening consumer spending outlooks.
- Amazon: Down nearly 3% to [price unspecified], weighed down by slowing e-commerce demand and rising supply chain costs.
- NVIDIA: Down over 3% to [price unspecified], with chip demand volatility intensifying amid energy price spillovers.
- Tesla: Down over 2% to [price unspecified], highlighting EV supply chain disruption risks.
- Meta: Down over 2% to [price unspecified], with ad revenue prospects dented by economic uncertainty.
- Google: Down nearly 1% to [price unspecified], with cloud services growth slowing.
- Broadcom: Down nearly 1% to [price unspecified], amid soft semiconductor demand. Core driver across all: sharp slowdown in nonfarm payrolls and Middle East conflict driving oil prices higher, intensifying stagflation concerns and pressuring tech valuations.
Sector Rotation Observations
Financial Sector: Down over 2%
- Key names: BlackRock down over 7%; Blackstone and KKR down over 4%.
- Catalyst: Turmoil in private credit markets—UK-based private equity firm MFS collapsed amid fraud allegations; Barclays and other major banks revealed over £2 billion in exposure, sparking credit tightening concerns.
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Sector: Broadly rallied
- Key names: Trio Petroleum up over 21%; Battalion Oil up nearly 18%.
- Catalyst: Iranian conflict-driven production cuts among oil exporters, surging oil prices stimulating exploration demand, and geopolitical premiums enhancing sector appeal.
Aerospace & Defense Sector: Mixed performance
- Key names: Boeing and AeroVironment up over 4%; Raytheon Technologies up nearly 3%.
- Catalyst: Trump’s planned meeting with Pentagon contractor executives; Middle East conflict boosts defense demand, though rising oil prices increase aviation operating costs.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Marvell Technology – Earnings and Revenue Outlook Both Beat Expectations
Event Summary: Marvell Technology’s latest earnings report shows Q4 FY2026 revenue up over 20% year-on-year to a record $2.22 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.80—both slightly above analyst estimates of $2.21 billion and $0.79. Net income surged 97.9% YoY to $396 million. Data center revenue rose 21% to $1.65 billion, beating expectations. The company benefits from AI-driven demand fueling chip business expansion, with an optimistic outlook. Market Interpretation: Institutional views are broadly positive; Goldman Sachs and others highlight Marvell’s competitiveness in the data center space and maintain Buy ratings. Investment Implication: Amid the AI wave, the stock still offers upside valuation potential and suits medium-to-long-term holding.
2. Hims & Hers Health – Novo Nordisk Plans to Sell Weight-Loss Drugs on Its Platform
Event Summary: Novo Nordisk plans to sell weight-loss drugs on the Hims platform, ending a dispute that had escalated to litigation. According to insiders, the partnership could be announced as early as next week. A similar agreement collapsed last year after Hims sold generic versions of the drug. This collaboration marks reconciliation; Hims surged nearly 40% after hours, signaling market recognition of its growth potential. The telemedicine-focused platform serves strong demand for weight-loss drugs, which could significantly boost revenues. Market Interpretation: Analysts view the partnership as expanding Hims’ user base; Morgan Stanley raised its price target and considers this a pivotal turning point for the telemedicine sector. Investment Implication: Favorable health-tech trends suggest opportunity—consider positioning post-short-term volatility.
3. JD.com – Goldman Sachs Says Its Differentiation Is Underappreciated by the Market
Event Summary: JD.com delivered double-digit growth in both revenue and active users in 2025. Though core retail sales dipped modestly due to high subsidy-related base effects, advertising revenue remained robust and food delivery losses narrowed. Management issued a cautiously optimistic 2026 outlook, including low-single-digit retail growth and logistics revenue growth exceeding 20%. Goldman Sachs highlights JD.com’s distinctive self-operated + marketplace model and superior supply chain advantages, noting AI deployment will further strengthen profitability resilience. Market Interpretation: Goldman Sachs stresses JD.com’s undervaluation, maintains a Buy rating, and raised its price target; institutional consensus remains bullish on its diversified structure. Investment Implication: Amid e-commerce recovery, JD.com offers significant re-rating potential—worthy of attention.
4. Samsara – Q4 Results Beat Expectations + Strong Guidance
Event Summary: Industrial IoT provider Samsara reported Q4 revenue of $444.3 million, exceeding expectations of $422.26 million; adjusted EPS of $0.18 beat forecasts of $0.13. First-quarter revenue guidance of $454–$456 million exceeds market expectations. Focused on its connected operations cloud platform, Samsara benefits from digital transformation trends—its stock surged over 19%. Market Interpretation: Analyst views are uniformly positive; JPMorgan calls its growth trajectory clear and maintains an Overweight rating. Investment Implication: Strong IoT demand supports solid growth prospects—ideal for growth-oriented investors.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
- The Trump administration unveiled a cybersecurity strategy pledging support for cryptocurrency and blockchain security, aiming to bolster industry confidence.
- The U.S. Bitcoin reserve initiative has progressed slowly, with no substantive developments in the past year—raising investor concerns about policy implementation.
- Kalshi and Polymarket are pursuing a $20 billion valuation in financing talks, reflecting rapid expansion in the prediction markets space.
- Circle completed an internal $68 million transfer using its own stablecoin in just 30 minutes, demonstrating blockchain efficiency advantages.
- Bitcoin whales recently sold off 66% of their recent gains, triggering market corrections; short-term holders transferred over 27,000 BTC to exchanges to lock in profits.
- In a report submitted to Congress, the U.S. Department of the Treasury acknowledged that cryptocurrency mixers can serve legitimate financial privacy purposes—lawful users may employ them to protect sensitive information related to personal wealth, commercial payments, or charitable donations on public blockchains.
- Yesterday, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor again posted Bitcoin Tracker updates, writing: “The Second Century Begins.” Per historical patterns, MicroStrategy consistently discloses Bitcoin purchases the day after such announcements.
- Tokens including APT, STRK, and SEI face large token unlocks this week, with APT’s unlock valued at approximately $10.5 million.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 07:00 | Germany | Industrial Production Index | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 12:00 | Saudi Arabia | GDP Growth Rate (YoY), Final | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 13:30 | United States | Consumer Inflation Expectations | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
- Daylight Saving Time begins in North America: All day—financial market trading hours shift forward by one hour; monitor opening time changes.
Institutional Views:
Top-tier investment bank analysts hold a cautiously optimistic stance on yesterday’s market moves. Goldman Sachs notes U.S. equities face stagflation pressure, yet tech giants exhibit resilience; it expects a near-term S&P 500 rebound to 5,300. JPMorgan analysis finds commodities like gold and crude benefit from geopolitical risk, while silver retains upside potential after short-term pullbacks; the Dollar Index may oscillate around 99. In crypto, S&P Global views BTC’s pullback as normal correction, with institutional inflows expected to drive a mid-year breakout above $100,000; ETH faces ETF outflows but benefits from upcoming network upgrades long-term. In FX, Barclays expects EUR/USD to stabilize near 1.05, supported by Eurozone inflation data. Overall, analysts recommend diversified allocation to safe-haven assets, close monitoring of Middle East developments, and avoidance of excessive leverage.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
