Bitget UEX Daily Report | Spot Gold and Silver Continue to Decline Amid Bitcoin Plunge; Amazon’s $200 Billion Capital Expenditure Raises Concerns; U.S. Job Openings Fall to 2020 Lows
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Spot Gold and Silver Continue to Decline Amid Bitcoin Plunge; Amazon’s $200 Billion Capital Expenditure Raises Concerns; U.S. Job Openings Fall to 2020 Lows
The U.S. dollar rebounded 0.75% amid hawkish nomination sentiment, while the cryptocurrency market cap dropped 7%, accompanied by $1.45 billion in liquidations. JPMorgan remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price target of $266,000, but expects short-term weakness to persist.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
U.S. Job Openings in December Unexpectedly Fell to the Lowest Level Since 2020, Signaling Weakening Labor Demand
- Key Event: Job openings declined from 6.93 million to 6.54 million—below expectations—dragged down primarily by professional services and retail sectors.
- Key Points: Layoffs edged higher; hiring rebounded slightly but remained broadly sluggish; the ratio of unemployed persons per job opening fell to 0.9, indicating a more balanced labor market.
- Market Impact: Reinforces the Fed’s view that wage growth is not inflationary, potentially supporting a gradual easing path—but may heighten near-term equity market volatility.
Trump Nominee Walsh May Face Legal Action Over Interest Rate Stance; Treasury Secretary Says Decision Rests with the President
- Key Event: Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that any decision to pursue legal action against Walsh rests solely with President Trump, contingent on whether Walsh responds to calls for rate cuts.
- Key Points: Trump previously joked about suing Walsh but is widely expected to push for rate cuts; the Senate has yet to schedule a confirmation hearing.
- Market Impact: Nominee uncertainty amplifies expectations volatility around Fed policy, potentially boosting the U.S. dollar and weighing on risk assets.
International Commodities
CME Raises Margin Requirements for Gold and Silver Futures; Prices Continue Declining
- Key Event: CME raised gold futures margin requirements to 9% and silver to 18%, effective February 6.
- Key Points: The adjustment applies to select futures contracts to mitigate leverage-related risks; spot gold fell 0.8%; silver dropped nearly 5% further.
- Market Impact: Higher margins intensified selling pressure; silver’s YTD gains were fully erased, potentially dampening leveraged trading enthusiasm across commodity markets.
Silver’s Collapse Continues—YTD Gains Fully Erased
- Key Event: Spot silver plunged another 5% following yesterday’s 20% crash, breaking below the $70/oz threshold.
- Key Points: Down over 40% from its January 29 high; platinum and palladium also fell over 1%; market turbulence reached levels unseen since 1980.
- Market Impact: This historic selloff underscores commodity market fragility, possibly triggering investor rotation into safer assets and amplifying broad market volatility.
Macroeconomic Policy
Trump Prefers Negotiating a New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Over Extending the Current One
- Key Event: Trump emphasized rebuilding U.S. military strength, criticized violations of the existing treaty, and called for a modernized replacement agreement.
- Key Points: Referenced expansion of the Space Force and nuclear arsenal modernization; claimed the current treaty helped prevent multiple potential nuclear conflicts—including the Russia-Ukraine war.
- Market Impact: Rising geopolitical policy uncertainty may lift safe-haven demand, though near-term escalation in global trade tensions could weigh on equities.
Canada Announces New EV Strategy, Including Collaboration with China
- Key Event: Prime Minister Carney unveiled Canada’s new EV strategy, reinstating purchase incentives and partnering with China to boost domestic production and exports.
- Key Points: Aims to diversify auto exports via existing trade agreements; targets global EV leadership.
- Market Impact: Enhanced Canada-China cooperation could ease supply chain constraints, though trade policy uncertainty may fuel sectoral volatility.
II. Market Recap
### Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: Down 0.42% to $4,755/oz; continued decline driven by USD strength and margin hikes.
- Spot Silver: Down 1.93% to $69.54/oz; collapse persists; YTD gains fully erased; volatility hit record highs.
- WTI Crude Oil: Down 0.82% to $62.76/bbl; eased geopolitical tensions and demand concerns dominated; early rebound faded.
- U.S. Dollar Index: Up 0.02% to 97.946; hawkish nominee sentiment ended recent weakness.
### Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Down 14.21% to $63,086; consecutive declines; key $60,000 level now under threat.
- ETH: Down 12.96% to $1,874; fell to August lows amid broad market selloff.
- Total Crypto Market Cap: Down 12.3% to $2.23 trillion; driven by leveraged liquidations and risk aversion.
- Liquidation Data: Long liquidations dominated—$2.314B vs. $305M short liquidations; total liquidations: $2.663B.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 1.2%; third straight decline, weighed down by tech stocks.
- S&P 500: Down 1.23%; entered negative territory for 2026.
- Nasdaq Composite: Down 1.59%; tech-led selloff extended to three consecutive days with >1% drops each.
Tech Giants’ Performance
- Amazon (AMZN): Down 4.42%; concerns mounted over $200B annual capex exceeding expectations.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Down 4.95%; rising uncertainty around AI investment returns.
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Down 0.54%; 2026 capex guidance of $175–185B exceeds consensus.
- Meta (META): Up 0.18%; relatively resilient but pressured by broader tech weakness.
- Apple (AAPL): Down 0.21%; comparatively defensive but dragged down by market-wide sentiment.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Down 1.33%; storage chip shortages delayed new GPU launches.
- Tesla (TSLA): Down 2.17%; growth stocks under pressure amid sector rotation. Core driver: AI capex surges have sparked free-cash-flow concerns, triggering broad tech selloff.
Sector Movement Highlights
Semiconductor Equipment: Down 0.29%
- Representative Stocks: Kulicke & Soffa up 19%; FormFactor up 17%.
- Catalyst: Despite persistent supply bottlenecks, robust demand supported equipment stock rebounds.
Gold & Silver Miners: Down Over 7%
- Representative Stocks: First Majestic Silver down nearly 10%; Pan American Silver down nearly 9%.
- Catalyst: Plunging spot prices and margin hikes triggered broad selloffs.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Amazon – Annual Capex Forecast Surges to ~$200B, Exceeding Expectations
Event Summary: Amazon reported Q4 net sales of $213.39B, slightly above expectations; AWS revenue grew 24%; operating profit totaled $24.98B. However, 2026 capex guidance of $200B far exceeds the $146.1B consensus. Q1 sales guidance of $173.5–178.5B aligns with estimates. Results included expense accruals and restructuring assumptions; EPS of $1.95 was near expectations. Strong AI, chip, and robotics demand contrasted with investor concerns over massive spending—causing an after-hours drop of over 11%. Market Interpretation: Analyst views diverge: Goldman Sachs sees high capex as evidence of strong AI commitment, albeit at short-term cash flow cost; Morgan Stanley worries about ROI uncertainty and cut its price target by 10%. Investment Implications: Elevated spending may suppress share price near term, but long-term AI positioning offers growth upside—monitor for signs of improved cash flow.
2. Novo Nordisk – Stock Plunges Amid Generic Competition for Wegovy
Event Summary: Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drug Wegovy faces competition from Hims & Hers Health’s newly launched generic priced at $49 for the first month and $99 thereafter—well below Wegovy’s starting price of $149. Novo Nordisk declared the product an illegal compounding with significant patient safety risks and plans legal action. Eli Lilly also fell nearly 8%, reflecting market anxiety over branded drug pricing power. Though Q4 results remain unannounced, intensifying competition drove an over-8% stock plunge. Market Interpretation: JPMorgan believes generic entry will erode near-term pricing power, though IP protection should sustain advantage; Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock, forecasting 5–10% market share loss. Investment Implications: Competitive pressures may compress margins, but successful litigation could reinforce dominance—short-term avoidance advised.
3. Qualcomm – Q2 Guidance Misses Estimates Amid Supply Constraints
Event Summary: Qualcomm posted Q1 revenue of $12.25B—above expectations—and adjusted EPS of $3.50—also beating forecasts. Yet Q2 revenue guidance of $10.2–11.0B falls short of the $11.2B consensus; EPS guidance of $2.45–2.65 trails the $2.89 expectation. Mobile chip business remains constrained by memory chip shortages; Q1 net income dipped 1% YoY. Shares slid over 8% further. Market Interpretation: UBS views supply issues as temporary, citing robust 5G demand; Barclays lowered its price target, warning shortages may persist through mid-year. Investment Implications: Growth potential remains substantial once supply improves, but near-term uncertainty is high—wait for upward guidance revisions.
4. Estée Lauder – FY Guidance Falls Short of Expectations
Event Summary: Estée Lauder reported Q4 sales of $4.23B—meeting expectations—and adjusted EPS of $0.89—slightly above forecasts. However, full-year net sales growth guidance of 3–5% trails the 4.3% consensus; EPS guidance of $2.05–2.25 misses the $2.16 estimate. The company is investing heavily in marketing to revitalize brands while navigating tariff headwinds—triggering a >19% stock plunge. Market Interpretation: Citigroup attributes conservative guidance to soft demand; Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral rating, estimating brand revitalization will take 1–2 years. Investment Implications: Near-term earnings pressure is significant, but successful brand renewal could strengthen long-term competitiveness—consider accumulation at lower levels.
5. NVIDIA – Memory Chip Shortage Delays New Gaming Chip Launch
Event Summary: NVIDIA’s launch of new gaming chips has been delayed due to global memory chip shortages driven by AI demand. Sources indicate the shortage is worsening and now affecting satellite business expansion. Shares fell over 1%, reflecting supply chain concerns. Market Interpretation: Morgan Stanley views the shortage as a short-term bottleneck, expecting AI-driven demand to drive recovery; Credit Suisse warns delays could impact Q1 revenue. Investment Implications: Supply chain risks are pressuring shares near term, but the AI cycle supports long-term upside—track memory chip supply developments closely.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. MicroStrategy (MSTR) reported a $12.4B net loss for Q4 2025, dragging its stock down 17% amid Bitcoin’s sharp decline.
2. Ethereum fell to an 8-month low, shedding $345B in market cap.
3. Equation Group founder Vida purchased 128.28 BTC at an average cost of ~$62,363.57.
4. Vitalik Buterin’s ETH donation pool—16,384 ETH—has sold 27.6% to date.
5. Gemini plans to cut up to 25% of its workforce, impacting approximately 200 roles.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 08:30 | U.S. | Employment Situation (January) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 10:00 | U.S. | Consumer Confidence (Preliminary, February) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 12:00 | U.S. | Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Speech | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
- Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Speech: 12:00 — Focus on interest rate trajectory and policy uncertainty.
- U.S. Consumer Credit: 15:00 — Monitor trends in consumer spending.
Bitget Research View:
U.S. tech stocks declined another 1.2–1.6%, reflecting AI capex concerns; Morgan Stanley warns of near-term free-cash-flow pressure but remains bullish on long-term AI growth. Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target to $5,400, citing geopolitical risk and central bank buying as tailwinds—though short-term volatility is intensifying; silver is forecast at $79.50, with ING highlighting USD strength as a headwind. Crude oil fell 3.53% amid easing geopolitical tensions; Bank of America cites demand concerns as primary driver. The USD rose 0.75% on hawkish nomination sentiment; crypto market cap dropped 7% alongside $1.45B in liquidations; JPMorgan maintains its long-term Bitcoin target of $266,000 but expects continued near-term weakness.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled using AI-powered search tools and verified manually for publication. It does not constitute investment advice.
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