Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump Ends Government Shutdown; Software Stocks Hit by AI Tools; NVIDIA Plans Massive Investment in OpenAI
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump Ends Government Shutdown; Software Stocks Hit by AI Tools; NVIDIA Plans Massive Investment in OpenAI
The U.S. dollar is under pressure in the foreign exchange market; institutions are optimistic about allocating to safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. Overall sentiment remains cautious, emphasizing that macroeconomic data and policy developments drive short-term volatility.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News Highlights
Federal Reserve Developments
Officials’ divergent views intensify uncertainty around rate cuts
- Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expects more than 100 basis points of rate cuts this year, citing a lack of strong price pressures in the economy; current elevated interest rates stem largely from idiosyncrasies in inflation measurement.
- Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin emphasized that the policy priority remains returning inflation to the 2% target; last year’s rate cuts have already supported the labor market, and consumers’ resistance to price hikes is helping curb further inflationary pressure.
- Market impact: This divergence may heighten investor uncertainty regarding the monetary policy path—supporting bond demand in the near term, but stronger easing expectations could further weaken the U.S. dollar and boost risk assets.
International Commodities
Resource stocks rally collectively; cyclical sectors gain favor
- Market style rotates toward value and cyclical sectors: Southern Copper rose 11.74%, Freeport-McMoRan +6.41%, First Majestic +8.04%, USA Rare Earth +17.46%, Energy Fuels +16.56%.
- Escalating U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions contributed to strong resource stock performance, reflecting investor optimism about economic resilience.
- Market impact: This rally may reinforce commodity demand expectations and stabilize related futures prices—but faces correction risks if global growth slows.
Macroeconomic Policy
Trump signs funding bill, averting partial U.S. government shutdown
- The U.S. House passed a bipartisan appropriations agreement; after Trump signed it, the partial government shutdown ended. However, Department of Homeland Security funding expires on February 13, and negotiations over immigration enforcement constraints continue.
- Trump confirmed ongoing negotiations with Iran, noting Iran has shown willingness to act—aiming to avoid a repeat of last year’s military escalation. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman resigned as Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
- Market impact: Short-term fiscal uncertainty eases, boosting market confidence—but escalating immigration policy disagreements could trigger renewed volatility, affecting both U.S. equities and the dollar.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot gold: +1.02% to $4,994/oz
- Spot silver: +0.58% to $85.70/oz
- WTI crude oil: +1.06% to $63.88
- U.S. Dollar Index: +0.06% to 97.441, driven by Fed dovish expectations and falling U.S. Treasury yields
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: −3.8%, extended decline, briefly hitting $72,943
- ETH: −4.67%, heightened volatility, briefly touching $2,109
- Total crypto market cap: fell to $2.65 trillion, driven by broad BTC and ETH sell-offs
- Liquidations: $551M longs / $203M shorts = $754M total
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: −0.34%, continued consolidation
- S&P 500: −0.84%, intensified sector rotation
- Nasdaq Composite: −1.43%, dragged down by tech and software stocks
Tech Giants’ Moves
- NVIDIA: −2.84%
- Google-A: −1.16%
- Apple: −0.20%
- Microsoft: −2.87%
- Amazon: −1.79%
- Meta: −2.08%
- Tesla: +0.04%
Key drivers: AI agent tools sparked “job displacement” concerns; concurrent market rotation into cyclical stocks pressured most tech giants—Tesla edged up slightly due to EV-sector resilience.
Sector Volatility Watch
Software sector: −12%
- Key stocks: Thomson Reuters −15.67%, London Stock Exchange Group −12.39%
- Catalyst: Anthropic’s new legal plugin triggered AI-substitution fears, accelerating capital outflows and dragging down the entire sector.
Resources sector: +10%
- Key stocks: Southern Copper +11.74%, Freeport-McMoRan +6.41%
- Catalyst: Market rotation toward value and cyclicals, combined with rising geopolitical risk, boosted demand for resource stocks.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. NVIDIA – Plans $20B Investment in OpenAI
Event Summary: CEO Jensen Huang denied rumors of a deal disruption with OpenAI, affirming the investment plan remains “on track.” NVIDIA intends to participate in OpenAI’s next funding round with a $20 billion commitment—the largest single investment in OpenAI to date. Terms remain subject to final negotiation and potential adjustment, aimed at deepening AI collaboration and supporting OpenAI’s potential IPO.
Market Interpretation: Bloomberg reports highlight this investment as a strategic move to solidify NVIDIA’s position across the AI ecosystem. Analysts believe successful execution would strengthen its chip dominance—but term uncertainty may cause short-term volatility.
Investment Takeaway: Reinforces NVIDIA’s leadership in AI, offering long-term upside; however, investors should monitor deal progress to mitigate execution risk.
2. AMD – Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Guidance Underwhelming
Event Summary: Q4 revenue hit a record >$10B (+30% YoY); EPS exceeded analyst estimates by 16%. Data center revenue reached a new high of $5.4B; MI308 chip sales in China totaled $390M—but U.S. export restrictions are expected to impact ~$440M in inventory in 2025. Q1 revenue guidance midpoint stands at $9.8B—slightly above consensus but below some bullish forecasts—causing after-hours shares to fall.
Market Interpretation: Analysts applaud robust data center growth and project 60% CAGR over the next three to five years. Yet the muted guidance reflects growing concerns about intensifying AI chip competition.
Investment Takeaway: Strong core business fundamentals support long-term holding; however, short-term exposure to export policy risks warrants caution.
3. Novo Nordisk – Forecasts 13% Sales Decline in 2026
Event Summary: Q4 sales fell 7.6% YoY (still better than expected), though obesity drug Wegovy sales surpassed expectations. The company anticipates its first-ever annual sales decline this year, forecasting 2026 sales and operating profit declines of 5–13%—well below analyst expectations of 1.4% and 3.1% respectively—due to U.S. business deterioration and global pricing pressure. U.S. shares fell 14.6%.
Market Interpretation: Analysts note the guidance underscores the contrast between international growth and U.S. price erosion. While the GLP-1 market continues expanding, competitive intensity and pricing headwinds are mounting.
Investment Takeaway: Near-term share pressure is likely, but market expansion provides a buffer; watch for adjustments to pricing strategy.
4. Pfizer – Q4 Non-COVID Business Grows 9%
Event Summary: Q4 revenue totaled $17.6B, up 9% YoY excluding COVID-related products. Full-year revenue reached $62.6B; 2026 guidance reaffirmed at $59.5–62.5B. The company launched ~20 pivotal clinical trials and acquired Metsera to expand into obesity therapeutics; oncology pipeline advanced notably in bladder cancer and other indications.
Market Interpretation: Analysts commend core business resilience and diversification strategy. Non-COVID growth underpins long-term stability—though fluctuations in residual pandemic demand require monitoring.
Investment Takeaway: Diversified portfolio enhances risk resilience—suitable for conservative, long-term investors.
5. Intel – Memory Chip Supply Constraints Extend Through 2028
Event Summary: CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed supply tightness with two major memory suppliers will persist through at least 2028, primarily driven by surging AI processor demand (e.g., NVIDIA’s Rubin platform). Intel plans to enter the GPU market, having hired a Chief Architect and integrating GPU development with its data center chips and foundry business.
Market Interpretation: Analysts view this as a clear signal of AI-driven demand; Intel’s GPU ambitions could capture market share—but supply bottlenecks may raise costs.
Investment Takeaway: Significant AI opportunity exists, but investors must weigh competitive and execution risks.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. Trump promoted cryptocurrency regulatory progress at Davos.
2. Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 SOL price forecast to $250, but raised its 2030 forecast to $2,000.
3. MicroStrategy signaled intent to acquire over $1.25B worth of BTC.
4. The real-life inspiration behind *The Big Short* warned that a Bitcoin crash could trigger a $1B wave of precious metal sell-offs.
5. Vitalik Buterin sold 1,441 ETH within two days, valued at ~$3.3M.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 09:45 | China | Caixin Services PMI | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 21:15 | U.S. | ADP Employment Change | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 23:00 | U.S. | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Upcoming Key Events
- Earnings releases: Pre-market – Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Uber; After-market – Google, Qualcomm, Arm — focus on revenue guidance and AI-related outlooks.
Bitget Research View:
U.S. equities face de-risking pressure; liquidity withdrawal could trigger a ~10% correction, with tech rotation exacerbating Nasdaq weakness. Precious metals show strength—gold’s rally signals a strong buy opportunity, supported by a weakening dollar and Fed dovishness, likely extending upward momentum. Crude oil rebounds modestly, buoyed by geopolitical factors and resilient demand—but underlying concerns about global growth deceleration persist. The dollar remains under pressure in FX markets; institutions favor allocations to safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Overall sentiment leans cautious, with macro data and policy developments expected to drive near-term volatility.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled via AI search and verified manually for publication only—not intended as investment advice.
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