Bitget UEX Daily Report | Gold and Silver Prices Surge Amid High Volatility; Huang Renxun Clarifies OpenAI Investment; SpaceX Applies for One Million Satellites
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Gold and Silver Prices Surge Amid High Volatility; Huang Renxun Clarifies OpenAI Investment; SpaceX Applies for One Million Satellites
The US dollar’s strength against foreign currencies continues, boosted by the Federal Reserve’s nomination; overall markets need to remain vigilant against leverage risks and geopolitical uncertainties.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair
- Trump has formally nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. His stance on balance sheet reduction creates clear policy tension with Trump’s desire to lower borrowing costs.
- Key points: Warsh’s mentor, Stanley Druckenmiller, publicly defended him, emphasizing that Warsh’s monetary policy views have shifted in both directions historically; coordination with the incoming Treasury Secretary will be critical; Trump also nominated Brett Matsumoto to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Market impact: Boosts the U.S. dollar; raises concerns over Fed independence; U.S. Treasury yield curve may steepen.
International Commodities
CME Raises Margin Requirements for Gold and Silver Futures
- The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures contracts amid recent extreme volatility, effective after market close on February 2.
- Key points: Gold and silver suffered a historic collapse last Friday, then opened lower Monday before rebounding sharply; Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett stated that the gold bull market will only end due to a “larger event.”
- Market impact: Short-term suppression of leveraged trading; long-term enhancement of market stability.
Macroeconomic Policy
U.S. Senate Passes $1.2 Trillion Spending Bill
- The Senate has passed a bill funding most federal agencies, but a brief government shutdown remains unavoidable as House members only return to Washington on Monday.
- Key points: Trump expressed willingness to reach a nuclear deal with Iran; Iranian Foreign Minister described negotiations as “productive”; Trump’s nomination of Brett Matsumoto to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics directly impacts the credibility of future nonfarm payroll data.
- Market impact: Short-term uncertainty rises, but if the shutdown ends swiftly, market disruption will likely be limited.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: Down 2.14%, rebounded slightly after consecutive sharp declines
- Spot Silver: Down 1.27%, exhibiting clear signs of a historic collapse
- WTI Crude Oil: Down 2.41%, driven by geopolitical risks and supply oversupply
- U.S. Dollar Index: Down 0.02%, influenced by Fed nomination developments and ongoing dollar strength
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Down 1.58%, breaking below the $75,000 level amid consecutive sharp declines
- ETH: Down 6.48%, briefly sliding to a low of $2,221
- Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Up 1.9% to $2.69 trillion, yet overall trend remains downward—driven by liquidations and leveraged position unwinding
- Market Liquidations: $358 million in long positions liquidated; total liquidations reached $493 million
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.36%, continuing its downward trend
- S&P 500: Down 0.43%, opening and closing low—a key technical feature
- Nasdaq Composite: Down 0.94%, dragged down primarily by broad tech sector weakness
Tech Giants’ Developments
- Tesla: Up 3.32%
- NVIDIA: Down 0.72%
- Alphabet Class A: Down 0.07%
- Microsoft: Down 0.74%
- Amazon: Down 1.01%
- Meta Platforms: Down 2.95%
- Apple: Down 0.5%
Summary of key drivers: Heightened market volatility and position unwinding weighed on most tech stocks, while Tesla rose against the trend on speculation about a potential merger.
Sector Movement Observations
Memory Sector Shows Mixed Performance
- Representative stocks: SanDisk up 6.85%; Western Digital down 10.12%
- Drivers: SanDisk’s quarterly revenue and EPS exceeded expectations, fueling stock divergence; however, the broader sector was pressured by general market pullbacks.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Tesla — Potential Merger Within Musk’s Empire
Event Summary: Tesla’s stock rose 3.32% against the broader market. Reports indicate that, amid rising AI investment costs, Elon Musk is reviewing capital structures across his companies. An IPO for SpaceX—or a potential merger involving Tesla and xAI—has moved from theoretical possibility to realistic option. This follows Musk’s track record of cross-company synergy, with intensifying AI competition as the catalyst and potential reshaping of the EV and space industries as the consequence.
Market Interpretation: Analysts believe such a move could optimize resource allocation and better serve AI customers—but caution against insufficient corporate discipline and mounting competitive pressure.
Investment Implications: A potential merger could boost Tesla’s stock price; investors should monitor progress in AI and autonomous driving as key long-term growth drivers.
2. SanDisk — Target Price Raised to $1,000
Event Summary: SanDisk shares surged over 25% intraday and closed up 6.85%. Bernstein raised its target price to $1,000—implying ~85% upside from current levels—with a forward P/E of just 11x for FY2027. This follows an explosion in memory demand, strong quarterly revenue and EPS beats, and guidance raising gross margins from 52.1% to 65–67%, marking entry into a “super-profitability” cycle.
Market Interpretation: Analysts emphasize that margin expansion has outpaced expectations—signaling a fundamental leap in profitability.
Investment Implications: The onset of this profit cycle presents a buying opportunity, though investors must remain vigilant regarding memory market volatility.
3. Oracle — Raising $50 Billion for Cloud Investment
Event Summary: Oracle plans to raise $45–50 billion via bond and equity issuances by 2026 to expand cloud infrastructure capacity. This responds to surging cloud demand, with upstream drivers including contractual commitments to AMD, Meta, NVIDIA, OpenAI, and xAI—and downstream consequences enhancing Oracle’s competitiveness in cloud services.
Market Interpretation: Analysts view this as a timely response to cloud market growth, though financing costs’ impact on profitability warrants careful assessment.
Investment Implications: Cloud business expansion supports long-term value creation; investors should closely track execution progress.
4. Google — Waymo Secures Funding
Event Summary: Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous driving subsidiary, raised ~$16 billion at a near-$110 billion valuation—$13 billion provided by Alphabet, the rest from Sequoia Capital and others. This follows accelerating development of autonomous ride-hailing services, intensified competition as the catalyst, and expected completion in February as the immediate consequence—potentially boosting Waymo’s robotaxi market share.
Market Interpretation: Analysts are optimistic about autonomous driving’s long-term prospects but highlight regulatory and technological risks.
Investment Implications: This funding strengthens Waymo’s competitive edge and offers high potential returns—but requires cautious evaluation.
5. ExxonMobil — 2025 Earnings Decline Forecast
Event Summary: ExxonMobil reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.71—beating estimates—but full-year 2025 earnings are projected at $28.8 billion, down from $33.7 billion in 2024. Excluding impairments and other one-time items, earnings stand at $30.1 billion. This reflects oil price volatility, shifting energy demand patterns, and growing earnings pressure.
Market Interpretation: Analysts note the decline highlights industry-wide challenges, though core operations remain solid.
Investment Implications: Investors should monitor earnings trends closely and consider diversifying energy exposure.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. Bitcoin briefly fell below the $76,000 level;
2. Trend Research ETH liquidation price dropped to ~$1,830, resulting in $562 million in losses;
3. Equation Group founder sold ETH purchased during yesterday’s “bottom-fishing,” citing concerns over spillover effects from U.S. equity market declines;
4. Michael Saylor again published Bitcoin Tracker updates; new BTC accumulation data may be disclosed this week;
5. Data: HYPE, BERA, XDC, and other tokens face major token unlocks this week—HYPE’s unlock alone represents ~$305 million in value.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 10:00 | U.S. | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 10:00 | U.S. | Construction Spending (Nov) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 09:45 | U.S. | PMI Manufacturing Final (Jan) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
- OPEC-JMMC Meeting: All day — Monitor for adjustments to oil supply policy
Bitget Research View:
Recent U.S. equity volatility reflects position unwinding, but underlying fundamentals remain intact. Goldman Sachs emphasizes incorporating year-to-date gains into analysis to avoid overreacting to sharp drawdowns. After a historic collapse, precious metals turned higher; BofA asserts the gold bull market will only end due to a “larger event,” while UBS forecasts gold reaching $4,200 and Goldman Sachs projects $4,900. The crude oil bear market continues, with supply growth outpacing demand by threefold; WTI average price forecast stands at $59. The U.S. dollar maintains strength, supported by Fed nomination developments. Overall, markets must remain alert to leverage-related risks and geopolitical uncertainty.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled via AI search and verified manually prior to publication. It does not constitute investment advice.
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