Delphi Digital Co-Founder: Why I’m Bullish on Cryptocurrencies’ Outlook
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Delphi Digital Co-Founder: Why I’m Bullish on Cryptocurrencies’ Outlook
Tommy shared his five core bullish theses on the crypto market.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Tommy (Shaughnessy119)
Translated by: TechFlow
TechFlow Insight: Amid recent market volatility and noise, Tommy, co-founder of Delphi Digital, outlines five core bullish arguments for the crypto market—grounded in current macroeconomic conditions, policy trends, and cutting-edge technological developments.
He argues that as Trump’s influence over the Federal Reserve grows, expectations of lower interest rates will drive capital out of U.S. Treasuries and into risk assets—including crypto. Furthermore, gold’s strength is not crypto’s rival but rather a shared signal of eroding dollar credibility.
The article also delves into how shifting AI narratives are freeing up liquidity for crypto—and why the “quantum computing threat” is currently overblown.
Full Text Below:
I believe cryptocurrency will begin rising from now on, driven by the following macro factors:
1/ Trump wants to suppress yields. If he truly drives change at the Fed (Truflation currently shows inflation at just 1.2%(!), yet under Biden—with higher inflation—the Fed cut rates faster, e.g., by 50 bps in September 2024), investors will pull money out of short-term Treasury bills (T-bills)—currently offering >5% risk-free yield—and rotate into risk assets like crypto. A new Fed chair appears imminent.
2/ Demand for gold/silver is absolutely疯狂. I don’t think capital flowing into gold/silver will directly migrate to crypto. Rather, the underlying driver behind the flight from risk assets and the dollar into gold—i.e., concerns about the dollar and fiscal health—will fuel massive monetary expansion, benefiting crypto as a hedge against currency debasement. Thanks to Nic Carter for the insight. Midterm elections will only accelerate the printing press.
(Translator’s note: This piece was written before last week’s silver plunge.)
3/ I’m extremely bullish on Gemini and AI broadly (I was a staunch bull on Google this past summer), but it feels like all the good news is already priced in.
We no longer hold parades for new model releases (e.g., ChatGPT 5.2), and OpenAI faces serious talent attrition and looming litigation risks. The current meta-narrative has shifted toward workflows, applications, and content built via Claude Code—good for Bitcoin’s underlying AI models and APIs, but attention and news flow are clearly pivoting elsewhere.
Given the frenzy around the Mac Mini, local AI may finally become viable: centralized APIs are actually very expensive (those ClaudeBot administrative assistants aren’t cheap), potentially driving adoption of local open-source models—not just for ideological reasons, but to reduce costs. Until AGI arrives, these stocks may continue rising or consolidating—but without the “wow factor” we’ve seen in the past.
Clearly, once AGI arrives, they’ll skyrocket. As for whether OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs will be bullish or bearish for crypto, I remain neutral: while such IPOs release significant liquidity seeking new homes, retail investors must choose between crypto and AGI equities. I lean bullish on crypto—you no longer need to fight through 3–5 layers of SPVs (special purpose vehicles) to secure AI private placements; instead, you can trade freely, without locking capital into illiquid AI private deals where you can’t sell your stake to other assets.
4/ Quantum computing is this year’s special variable—but I believe Coinbase and others are taking it more seriously, as Nic rightly sounded the alarm (see his excellent report and his appearance on our podcast). If you speak with thermodynamics experts (who oppose quantum researchers’ views and favor harnessing cosmic randomness rather than trying to constrain and direct it), you’ll get a contrarian perspective on quantum computing.
Currently, the tail-risk curve in quantum computing is shifting downward (risk capital is exiting), which will spill over and impact large-cap assets and narratives—currently weighing on Bitcoin (BTC). A downturn in quantum = an upside for crypto. $IonQ / $QBTS / $RGTI are all down 13–18% from their January highs.
5/ If crypto receives support from the Clarity Act in the near term (banks are currently fighting stablecoins to preserve their monopoly on dollar yield), and if the SEC, CFTC, and Trump administration race to clear regulatory hurdles for crypto, that would be a powerful catalyst. The bill is scheduled for markup on January 29—but this is not yet the final vote.
In summary: I’m not a macro expert—and right now, I’m literally grilling outdoors—so please take these views with a grain of salt.
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