Bitcoin Can't Rise Any Further? $2.8 Billion Already Withdrawn as Institutional Big Buyers "Quietly Exit"
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Bitcoin Can't Rise Any Further? $2.8 Billion Already Withdrawn as Institutional Big Buyers "Quietly Exit"
After suffering a major setback in October, Bitcoin's rebound has been struggling, and this time the biggest problem is: institutional whales have stopped playing.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsSource: Jinshi Data
Bitcoin is struggling forward, and the forces that once propelled its surge are fading. After a dismal October, the cryptocurrency has seen only a halting recovery, climbing, falling, then stalling slightly above $100,000.
This time, however, Bitcoin’s rally lacks the strong tailwind that defined much of its 2025 trajectory: unwavering institutional confidence.
Over the past month, many major buyers—from exchange-traded fund (ETF) allocators to corporate treasuries—have quietly stepped back, depriving the market of the flow-driven support that helped propel the token to record highs earlier this year. Their retreat hasn’t triggered industry-wide panic, but it has fundamentally shifted market expectations.
For most of this year, institutional investors served as the backbone of Bitcoin’s legitimacy and price strength. According to Bloomberg data, spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively attracted over $25 billion in inflows, pushing their total assets to approximately $169 billion. Their steady capital deployment helped reposition Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool—a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and political turmoil.
Yet this long-fragile narrative is now cracking again, exposing the market to a more subtle but equally damaging risk: the cautious withdrawal of large holders.
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10X Research and former portfolio manager at Millennium Management LLC, sees growing signs of market fatigue. He notes that after Bitcoin posted a lackluster 10% gain this year—far behind gold or tech stocks—some professional investors are losing patience. Thielen believes that if prices start falling again, risk advisors may recommend institutions reduce exposure before year-end.
"At some point, risk managers could step in and say, 'You need to liquidate or trim your position.' There's a risk Bitcoin continues underperforming because people need to rebalance their portfolios. When you send reports to investors, your holdings might need more Nvidia stock and less Bitcoin," he said.
Bloomberg data shows spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $2.8 billion in net outflows over the past month. Thielen said if the price momentum stalls further, tens of billions more could be withdrawn ahead of the December Federal Reserve meeting.
This risk isn't merely theoretical. On-chain signals suggest long-term holders have been selling into strength. Although most speculative leverage was cleared during the market crash on October 10, Thielen warns that if the token falls below the critical technical support level of $93,000, more holders could be forced to exit. "There's a massive gap here; once broken, many will quickly fall into losses. Players with weaker balance sheets may be forced to liquidate their positions," he said.
Citigroup also sees similar warning signs. Alex Saunders, head of quantitative macro research at Citi Research, said, "My sense is that new money is entering cautiously, without much urgency or eagerness to invest. Perhaps enthusiasm has faded."
He pointed to shifts in wallet behavior. Citi's analysis shows the number of so-called Bitcoin "whales"—wallets holding more than 1,000 bitcoins—is gradually declining. In contrast, the number of retail participants holding less than one bitcoin has increased.
Citigroup noted that typically, weekly inflows of $1 billion boost prices by about 4%, meaning the current stagnation in capital flows is constraining price gains.
The term "whale" can refer to a broad range of holders, from early adopters who bought Bitcoin when it was worth just a few dollars to institutional accounts and exchanges. Moreover, wallet movements don’t always indicate direct selling; large holders often transfer tokens between wallets for liquidity or custody purposes.
In the digital asset space, one of the clearest examples of buyer strike comes from Michael Saylor’s Strategy company, a software firm turned major Bitcoin accumulator. Once a benchmark for corporate treasury investments in crypto, its share price has now fallen to nearly match the value of its Bitcoin holdings—suggesting investors no longer assign a premium to Saylor’s high-conviction leveraged strategy.
Still, while momentum in the crypto market has weakened, there are few signs of outright panic. Over the past 18 months, Bitcoin’s price remains substantially higher, and speculative demand across various markets remains robust.
Analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex cautioned against interpreting recent data as panic selling or a market top. Their research shows wallets holding more than 10,000 bitcoins saw balances decline by only 1.5% in October—hardly a “fire sale.” They also described ETF outflows as “temporary weakness, not structural risk.”
"The conclusion is that whales are not panic-selling, but rather gradually taking profits amid weak ETF demand—a pattern repeatedly observed in prior cycles. Once capital inflows and liquidity conditions improve, these rebalancing periods typically reset market positioning and volatility ahead of the next upward leg," wrote Bitfinex analysts.
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