Spot gold surges past 4,060, hitting a new record high; Bank of America forecasts $6,000 by next spring
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Spot gold surges past 4,060, hitting a new record high; Bank of America forecasts $6,000 by next spring
Global markets have entered a high-risk period due to Trump.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsSource: Jinshi Data
During Monday's morning session, spot gold briefly surged above $4,060 per ounce, hitting a new all-time high, before retreating to around $4,040 per ounce at the time of writing.
Notably, financial markets experienced significant volatility following Monday's open. As market anxiety slightly eased after the 6:00 a.m. opening, spot gold swung sharply by nearly $40—initially dropping below $4,000 per ounce before staging a strong rebound; New York copper futures rose over 2%; WTI and Brent crude oil prices surged nearly 3%; U.S. stock index futures rebounded, with Nasdaq futures up more than 1%; Bitcoin spiked nearly $1,000, while safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen weakened and the dollar strengthened.
Last Friday, after Trump posted on social media, $2 trillion was wiped out from the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7%—its worst performance since early April. This incident underscores that Trump’s authoritarian trade policies continue to influence the global economy.
Sharp declines in risk assets have been rare recently, which itself may be a factor contributing to an uncoordinated response to trade tensions. Since the tariff-driven collapse in April, the S&P 500 has surged due to optimism around artificial intelligence and hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The index is now trading near one of the highest valuations in 25 years, leaving little room to absorb bad news.
Michael O’Rourke of JonesTrading said: “For the entire summer, greed in the U.S. stock market has far outweighed fear, and high complacency has left investors vulnerable. The sell-off could evolve into a larger correction.”
Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management noted that October is literally one of the most turbulent months, and the long-anticipated sell-off has finally arrived. He said: “There may be greater volatility in the coming weeks, but if the economy doesn’t suffer a real blow, markets should rebound later this year, proving right those who bought the dip in October before year-end.”
Mark Newton of Fundstrat Global Advisors said: “Whether or not the S&P 500 can rebound to 6,800 this week, I suspect last Friday’s deterioration led to further weakening in breadth and momentum, potentially triggering a fall sell-off.” The index closed Friday at 6,552.51. He also pointed out that vigilance remains important, as cross-asset volatility has already begun and could persist into next month.
However, statements made by Trump and Vice President Vance over the weekend suggest they are still trying to calm panicked markets, reassuring them that tit-for-tat escalation is not inevitable. Trump adopted a more conciliatory tone over the weekend, saying everything would be fine.
Anna Wu, cross-asset strategist at Van Eck Associates Corp., said: “This doesn’t look like a replay of April... markets digested a certain level of oversold conditions last Friday, hence the rebound from lows.”
Michael Hirson and Houze Song of 22V Research said: “This is a very dangerous moment for global supply chains—including those powering artificial intelligence—but it’s worth noting that neither side has yet implemented their threatened measures. There’s still room for de-escalation, and Trump would face significant political risks if he follows through on his threats.”
Monday’s rebound in risk assets did not halt gold’s rally. Traders are still awaiting signs of when the U.S. government will reopen and release data that could influence Fed policy.
Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com, said: “Trade volatility may settle down, but it will never disappear. That’s actually good news for gold.”
Fxempire analysis indicates that technically, gold’s primary trend remains upward. Last Friday’s closing price placed gold well above two support levels at $3,939.38 and $3,888.43. Unless the market breaks below $3,819.42—which would signal near-term weakness—the momentum remains bullish. With gold trading in uncharted territory, there are no traditional resistance levels above the current record highs. Psychological round numbers such as $4,100 and $4,200 will become the next upside targets. On the downside, the 50-day moving average at $3,592.82 is currently the most reliable trend support.
Michael Hartnett of Bank of America wrote: “History doesn’t predict the future, but across the past four bull markets, gold rose an average of 300% over roughly 43 months, suggesting gold could reach $6,000 by next spring.”
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