Bitcoin rally hits pause? Strong US jobs data may prompt market correction
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Bitcoin rally hits pause? Strong US jobs data may prompt market correction
Hotcoin Research Weekly Market Insights.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at $4.04 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.63% ($2.36 trillion). Stablecoin market cap is $273.4 billion, up 1.39% over the past seven days, with USDT representing 60.43%.
Among the CoinMarketCap top 200 projects, most are up while a few are down: OKB rose 111.49% over 7 days, AERO gained 63.84%, RAY increased 30.44%, SKL surged 109.68%, and USELESS climbed 52.53%.
This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $547.7 million; U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $2.852 billion.
Market Outlook (August 18–22):
This week witnessed significant stablecoin issuances, continued net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and strong gains across altcoins. The RSI index stands at 44.15, indicating overbought conditions. The Fear & Greed Index is at 59 (lower than last week).
BTC: Could target $125,000 after breaking above $123,218; however, hawkish moves by the Fed could trigger a pullback, with support at $112,000;
ETH: With ongoing corporate purchases, ETH may test $5,000, supported at $4,400;
Short-term traders should watch key resistance/support levels, while long-term investors should use pullbacks to position themselves and monitor the September rate cut decision and Bitcoin halving cycle window.
Understanding the Present
Recap of Weekly Major Events
1. On August 12, according to Jupiter data, pump.fun ranked first in Solana token issuance platform market share over the past 24 hours with 69.7%, followed by Letsbonk at 15.2%, and BAGS at 9.14%;
2. On August 12, on-exchange Ethereum supply dropped to its lowest level since July 2016, declining 6.7% in Q3 so far this year;
3. On August 12, billionaire Peter Thiel made another investment in Ethereum. According to the latest SEC filing, Peter Thiel and his investment team acquired a 7.5% stake in ETHZilla (formerly 180 Life Sciences Corp.), an Ethereum treasury reserve company;
4. On August 13, according to 8Marketcap data, as ETH briefly broke above $4,600, its market cap reached $556 billion, surpassing Netflix to rank 25th among global assets by market value;
5. On August 13, Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) announced plans to raise $20 billion to increase its ETH holdings;
6. On August 12, Aave announced active borrowing exceeded $25 billion, a new all-time high;
7. On August 14, according to Rockflow data, crypto exchange Bullish (BLSH) closed up 83.78% on its first day of U.S. stock listing, ending at $68 with a market cap of $9.94 billion, trading volume reaching $5.176 billion, and turnover rate hitting 185.45%;
8. On August 14, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $124,000, setting a new record high at $124,051, currently trading at $123,930, up 3.29% in 24 hours;
9. On August 14, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the government will not purchase cryptocurrency reserves but will use seized assets.
Macroeconomic
1. On August 12, the U.S. July unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate rose further to 3.1%, a five-month high, exceeding market expectations of 3.0% and prior 2.90%;
2. On August 12, the U.S. July unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate was 2.7%, below expectations of 2.80%, unchanged from the previous month's revised 2.70%;
3. On August 14, following the release of U.S. July PPI data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September slightly declined to 92.5%, with 7.5% chance of rates being held steady;
4. On August 14, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 9 was 224,000, lower than expected 228,000, and revised up from the previous 226,000 to 227,000.
ETF
Data shows that between August 11 and August 15, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $547.7 million. As of August 15, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $23.758 billion, currently holding $23.151 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $88.6 billion. The total market cap of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stands at $153.043 billion.
Net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs: $2.852 billion.
Anticipating the Future
Event Preview
1. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held in Bali, Indonesia, from August 21 to 22;
2. WebX Asia 2025 will take place in Tokyo, Japan, from August 25 to 26;
3. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be hosted at Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre from August 28 to 29.
Key Events
1. On August 20 at 10:00, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision;
2. On August 21 at 20:30, the U.S. will release the number of initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending August 16;
3. On August 22 at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium.
Token Unlocks
1. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 172 million tokens on August 17, worth approximately $11.22 million, representing 3.61% of circulating supply;
2. Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens on August 18, worth around $91.4 million, or 2.08% of circulating supply;
3. LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.72 million tokens on August 20, valued at about $55.53 million, making up 8.53% of circulating supply;
4. KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 23.35 million tokens on August 20, worth approximately $25.22 million, or 8.82% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for investors. Through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we help you understand market trends. Our exclusive feature "Top Picks" (AI + expert dual screening) identifies promising assets and reduces trial-and-error costs. Each week, our analysts also host live streams to explain hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that warm, personalized guidance combined with professional insights can help more investors navigate market cycles and capture value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and inherently risky. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and conduct investments strictly within a sound risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
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