Bitcoin starts to pull back—another turning point in the bull market script?
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Bitcoin starts to pull back—another turning point in the bull market script?
Traders may be closing positions to realize profits.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On May 30, the final day of the Bitcoin 2025 conference, the market once again lived up to the so-called "conference curse" with another sharp downturn.
Bitcoin briefly dropped below $105,000 this morning, hitting a low of $104,600. Ethereum also fell from a high of $2,788 to a low of $2,557. The broader altcoin market saw widespread pullbacks, with some tokens like BERA even reaching new all-time lows.
In the derivatives market, according to Coinglass data, total liquidations across the board reached $330 million in the past hour, including $321 million in long positions and $7.89 million in short positions.
On the macro front, U.S. crypto stocks such as COIN and MSTR both declined after hours. Regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts, sentiment remains volatile. On Thursday, Fed's Daly stated that although policymakers still expect two rate cuts this year, interest rates should remain steady for now to ensure inflation reaches the Fed’s 2% target. Daly emphasized that inflation will remain a key focus given it is still above target and amid ongoing uncertainty, especially with a robust labor market. Additionally, a Wednesday ruling by a U.S. trade court blocking Trump-era tariffs was overturned by an appellate court on Thursday, highlighting policy uncertainty that continues to unsettle many businesses and the Fed.
Is this correction merely a healthy short-term pullback or the beginning of another prolonged consolidation phase? Let’s hear what industry experts and analysts have to say.
Placeholder Partner: Minor pullback doesn’t signal end of bull run; risk structure remains sound
Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, said on social media: "Don't mistake a minor pullback for the end of the rally—the overall risk/reward structure remains favorable."
Matrixport: Open interest data suggests traders may be closing positions to lock in profits
A recent report from Matrixport (authored by Markus Thielen of 10x Research) shows that futures open interest has surged since April’s lows. While Solana has slipped to second place as meme coin and Pump.fun enthusiasm cools, Bitcoin’s open interest has seen significant growth. This surge may reflect a shift in market risk appetite, particularly following recent reversals in Trump’s tariff policies. Bitcoin continues to serve dual roles as both a "risk-on" and "safe-haven" asset, increasingly aligning with the "digital gold" narrative.
However, open interest now appears to be plateauing, which may confirm our view—that traders are beginning to take profits and plan to re-enter at lower levels.
Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin enters healthy consolidation phase; profit-taking by short-term holders may trigger selling pressure
On May 26, Bitfinex Alpha released a report stating that after a 32% pullback following its all-time high in January, Bitcoin rebounded strongly by over 50%, reaching a new peak of $111,880, and has now entered a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF inflows, surging spot market participation, and positive realized net profit growth have driven structural buying rather than excessive speculation. Despite a dip in macro risk appetite—such as rumors of the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on European imports—Bitcoin remained resilient, without notable declines during deleveraging and profit-taking phases.
This resilience is drawing attention to Bitcoin’s evolution into a "macro-sensitive, conviction-driven asset," whose trading behavior is increasingly tied to global liquidity trends rather than retail sentiment. Notably, Japan’s Metaplanet increased its Bitcoin holdings by $104 million, and Michigan lawmakers proposed pro-crypto legislation, further confirming growing institutional and policy-level support for digital assets.
Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can continue consolidating above the cost basis of short-term holders (around $95,000) will be crucial. Over the past month, short-term holders have realized over $11.4 billion in profit, suggesting potential near-term selling pressure, though structural demand remains intact. The strength of ETF buying, low volatility, and spot market premium signals all indicate a maturing market. Once macro conditions clarify, further upside may follow. In the coming weeks, it will become clear whether this breakout marks a temporary top or the prelude to a stronger Q3 rally.
Arthur Hayes: Ethereum price could double to $5,000 this year
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that Ethereum could reach $4,000–$5,000 this year. Hayes believes Ethereum is currently the "least popular Layer 1," but that could present an investment opportunity during market cycle transitions.
CryptoQuant Analyst: BTC short-term holder profit-taking hits local peak, but not yet at prior bull market extremes
Axel Adler Jr., analyst at CryptoQuant, posted on social media that the STH SOPR (30-day moving average)—a metric measuring the average realized profit/loss when short-term holders spend tokens on-chain—has recently hit a local high, indicating a clear rise in profit-taking by short-term holders.
Nonetheless, demand for the asset remains strong, and the current uptrend remains intact. The indicator has not yet reached the euphoric levels seen during previous major price peaks.
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