Ten Questions for Arthur Hayes: When Will the Altcoin Season Arrive? Which Is Stronger Between ETH and SOL in the Future Market?
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Ten Questions for Arthur Hayes: When Will the Altcoin Season Arrive? Which Is Stronger Between ETH and SOL in the Future Market?
Arthur Hayes on Bitcoin's path to $200,000, holding gold, and why the "disgraced" Ethereum will make a comeback
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Fortune
Translation: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
Arthur Hayes is a prominent early figure in Bitcoin who co-founded the offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014 and later faced legal issues for violating U.S. regulatory requirements. Recently, Hayes admitted to failing to establish adequate anti-money laundering controls, accepted probation, and paid fines—but was fully pardoned by Trump earlier this year.
Hayes now focuses on managing his family office Maelstrom and remains a highly influential voice in the crypto space. Anna Tutova, contributing writer at Fortune, sat down with him during Token-2049 in Dubai, where Hayes shared his market outlook—including a prediction that BTC could reach $200,000 in the short term and exceed $1 million by 2028.
In the interview, Hayes also analyzed ETH and altcoin markets and explained why he allocates 20% of his portfolio to gold.
Below is the full interview, condensed and edited.
Q1: On the Real U.S. Deficit
Anna: You've called recent U.S. Treasury borrowing practices "sleight of hand." Why?
Arthur Hayes: The Treasury has been drawing down its "checking account" (Treasury General Account, TGA) and using "extraordinary measures" (funding from undercapitalized government programs) to bypass debt limits. This quarter, the TGA dropped from $750 billion to $450 billion, meaning $300 billion in spending wasn't covered by new debt issuance—indicating actual borrowing far exceeds official figures.
This is confusing. We're in a debt ceiling period where the U.S. government theoretically can't increase net borrowing, yet they maintain spending through accounting maneuvers without breaching the limit. From January to March 2025, Treasury borrowing was 22% higher than the same period last year—the deficit is actually widening.
Q2: On Market Liquidity
Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Arthur Hayes: I believe the U.S. government's actual borrowing needs are much larger than reported. Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and leverage the banking system to its maximum to finance it. The result will be even greater global dollar liquidity, as the U.S. ramps up spending.
In short, this is what repo operations really are—and why I believe they'll boost market liquidity. Based on this, I see Bitcoin having bottomed on April 9. As the government continues borrowing and Bessent ensures low-cost financing, Bitcoin's price will continue rising sharply.
Q3: On the Altseason
Anna: At what level might Bitcoin trigger an altcoin rally? What are the key drivers for an altseason?
Arthur Hayes: I think Bitcoin needs to break above $110,000 and sustain volume-driven momentum into the $150,000–$200,000 range. I expect this to happen by summer or early Q3 this year, after which capital will start rotating into various altcoins.
Q4: On Bull Market Price Expectations
Anna: Will the next altcoin cycle see another wild, hyperbolic surge like in 2021, or just a modest rebound?
Arthur Hayes: It's unlikely we'll see a repeat of 2021, when nearly every coin surged 100x. There will be new narratives, and certain coins may go parabolic—but there's a reason your long-stagnant "dinosaur coins" haven't moved. Many projects are overvalued, have low float, lack real users and revenue, and relied solely on exchange listings for hype. Now down 95%, I don't expect them to perform well in the next cycle.
Q5: On Personal Return Expectations
Anna: What kind of returns are you targeting in this cycle? What are your typical target prices and return rates?
Arthur Hayes: At minimum, I need to outperform Bitcoin’s gains. If we allocate capital to an asset, it must deliver returns superior to Bitcoin.
Q6: On Trump
Anna: What do you expect from Trump's crypto policies?
Arthur Hayes: His team is likely to introduce crypto-friendly policies, but that doesn’t guarantee your specific holdings will rise, nor that policies will roll out on your expected timeline.
Market expectations are unrealistically high—some even think crypto policy will be Trump’s top priority. But remember, Trump is a politician with many higher-priority issues. Patience is needed.
Q7: On Gold
Anna: Amid rising market uncertainty, we’ve seen a sharp rise in gold. Do you hold gold, or are you fully focused on crypto?
Arthur Hayes: I’m a long-term holder of gold—I store physical bars in a vault and hold significant positions in gold mining stocks. Despite the recent surge, these remain undervalued. I believe gold still has substantial upside, as central banks continue aggressive buying.
More importantly, I expect the U.S. to significantly revalue its gold reserves by allowing the dollar to depreciate against gold, effectively diluting debt. By the end of this cycle, gold could reach $10,000 to $20,000 per ounce.
Gold makes up about 20% of my personal portfolio.
Q8: On ETH vs SOL
Anna: That’s a significant allocation! There’s a lot of debate today between ETH and SOL—which do you favor?
Arthur Hayes: I see more upside potential in ETH, even though it’s currently under scrutiny—everyone thinks it’s done nothing, the dev team keeps making mistakes. But the reality is it still holds the highest total value locked (TVL), the largest developer community, and is the most secure PoS blockchain. Yes, its price performance since 2020 has been disappointing.
SOL has clearly performed well, but if I were deploying fiat into a new position today, I believe ETH will outperform SOL over the next 18–24 months in this bull market.
Q9: On $1 Million BTC
Anna: You previously predicted Bitcoin would hit $1 million—when do you expect that to happen?
Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin will reach $1 million by the end of Trump’s presidential term—in late 2028.
Q10: On This Year’s Market Outlook
Anna: How do you expect the crypto market to unfold this year?
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin’s dominance will continue rising, potentially approaching $200,000 in this leg. Then the altseason arrives, and we’ll see some interesting developments. By year-end, Bitcoin’s target price should be around $250,000.
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