On the Eve of Meme Coin Season: How to Build a Suitable Meme Coin Season Portfolio?
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On the Eve of Meme Coin Season: How to Build a Suitable Meme Coin Season Portfolio?
ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks out of a three-year downtrend, signaling the arrival of alt season.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: cyclop
Translation: Tim, PANews
These are the clearest bull market signals I've seen in seven years of being in the crypto market:
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BTC approaching all-time highs
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Retail interest near historic lows
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ETH/BTC ratio breaking out of a 3-year downtrend
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Altcoin index rebounding from range lows
Each of these factors has previously triggered an altseason. Now they're converging, creating resonance.
Is this really the beginning of the next altseason?
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I genuinely think we're finally about to see altcoins explode.
In this long-form thread, I'll break down:
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How and why market sentiment is shifting bullish
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What changes have already occurred that make altseason possible
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Key upcoming catalysts
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Important indicators and their signals
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Which altcoins might surge
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How to build a suitable altcoin season portfolio
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How to research hard-to-execute projects
I've been in crypto for seven years and have witnessed dozens of market structures that triggered altseasons.
Yes, cycles have changed somewhat—I've already broken down how and why in my referenced post.
But I believe we're at the start of a more sustained altcoin season, one that doesn't require BTC to skyrocket to $150K to be validated.
The narrative around BTC has fundamentally shifted—from being seen as a Ponzi scheme to: a top-tier investment-grade macro hedge, the sixth-largest asset by market cap (and recognized by S&P), a hedge against inflation, and the primary solution for isolated or high-inflation countries.
BTC's rise from current levels is no longer a prerequisite for altseason to begin.
BTC's percentage gains (and losses) will shrink. That's just what happens when market cap grows. Each year, BTC becomes increasingly a store-of-value asset rather than a speculative one.
This is where the "value" of altcoins lies.
High-market-cap altcoins, especially blockchain projects, are no longer seen as "Bitcoin alternatives." They're now viewed as tech companies operating within the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum is like Nvidia, Solana like high-performance infrastructure, and so on.
This cognitive shift has appeared in past market cycles—each time signaling the start of an altseason. Now, let's talk about what's actually changed to make altseason possible.
After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum surged and broke ETH/BTC's three-year downtrend. Every skeptic became a believer. Bitcoin dominance just experienced its sharpest three-day drop since November 2024. Altcoin sentiment hit rock bottom, and even after this small rally, retail participation remains near historic lows. In my view, the Pectra upgrade was a game-changer. It also addressed the biggest hurdle facing Ethereum-driven altseasons: user interface and user experience issues.
Retail Index
Despite widespread adoption, the retail index is currently near historic lows. This factor has historically played a key role in the early stages of past altseasons. Now, it's again a positive signal. Let me explain:
It's important to understand a simple truth: assets peak when they're in absolutely the best condition, and they bottom when everyone feels helpless and desperate. Altcoins are still deep in despair—but from here, the only way forward is counter-trend climbing and recovery.
Catalysts for Ethereum and other altcoins? Many. Downside triggers? None—the market is extremely bearish. Even after a 2x rise from the bottom, the retail index (in part) hasn't even been reached yet. Finally, we've reached the point where even if altcoins have already quadrupled, they could still 10x again.
ETH/BTC Chart
ETH/BTC was in a five-month downtrend, which negatively impacted ETH. Both price and attention declined, making it harder for altcoins to rise. After breaking key resistance, Ethereum surged, sending a strong signal for altcoin upside.
Now let's look at some key indicators, such as:
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Global liquidity
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Stablecoin index
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Altseason index
All these signals point to a potential trend reversal and liquidity influx into crypto, heralding the arrival of altseason.
But this altseason will be different.
Last cycle, there were fewer altcoins, so nearly all of them surged. This time is different: severe supply overhang makes it difficult for all altcoins to sustain upward momentum. Likely less than 10% will see significant moves—the key is knowing how to find these potentials.
Your choices depend on your risk tolerance and profit targets.
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Large caps = low returns + low risk
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Mid caps = medium returns + medium risk
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Small caps = high returns + high risk
Altcoin Research Methodology
If it's a high-market-cap utility token, not a newly emerged meme coin, it's better to pay attention—such tokens carry lower scam risk. You can analyze tokens based on several aspects:
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Market cap
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Liquidity
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Trading volume
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Listings on centralized and decentralized exchanges
Then create a watchlist of altcoins you like.
Follow credible KOLs and check whether they're paying attention to or mentioning the project.
If many KOLs are watching a project but aren't personally investing, it's probably junk.
Analyzing Projects
Begin detailed research on the altcoins in your watchlist.
Check the following:
1) What is the project's core idea? Is there market demand?
2) How good is the product? Examine their official website and social media platforms in detail.
3) Are team members public? Who are they? What are their backgrounds?
Patience + Conviction = 100x Returns
100x returns won't happen in a day, a week, or even a month.
Achieve them through deep research into promising projects and long-term holding.
Continuously track project progress, version updates, and ecosystem activity.
The most important principle:
Don't over-diversify your holdings. Don't invest based on others' conviction. The screenshot below explains why.
Conclusion
Most indicators clearly suggest that altseason is coming—it's just a matter of being fully prepared. Remember: if you believe everything, you effectively believe nothing. Don't pick dozens of projects; select at most five, and remain cautious.
Only this way can you capture those less than 10% of altcoins with potential to deliver 100x+ returns. If that's not convincing enough, take a look at this chart.
0/30 bull market peak indicators have been triggered. Strange, right?
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