HTX DeepThink: US inflation cools,利好集中 released, how long will this market trend last?
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HTX DeepThink: US inflation cools,利好集中 released, how long will this market trend last?
Overall pattern: structural bullish trend + short-term consolidation and volatility.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Since early May, macro-level positives have continued to emerge: inflation data cooled more than expected, the tariff war has gradually eased, and the Fed's phased release of net liquidity has pushed Bitcoin back above $100,000, with mainstream assets like ETH and SOL also strengthening in tandem. However, beneath this strong rebound, market volatility risks remain hidden.
In this edition of HTX DeepThink, HTX Research's Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) breaks down macro drivers, institutional behavior, and market structure to jointly assess the sustainability of this rally.
Rate cut expectations strengthen, Fed net liquidity rises, supporting markets
The U.S. April CPI data released on May 13, 2025 showed further cooling in inflation, reinforcing market expectations for rate cuts by the Fed this year. Headline CPI came in at 2.3% year-on-year (expected 2.4%, prior 2.6%), the lowest since March 2021; core CPI was 2.8% (in line with expectations, prior 3.0%). Goldman Sachs analysts noted that some companies had front-loaded inventory builds in response to Trump’s tariffs implemented in early April, temporarily delaying cost pass-through to consumer prices. Goods prices were flat month-on-month in April, rising only 0.1% excluding food and energy, indicating current tariff impacts remain relatively mild. However, retailers have warned of potential future price hikes, and the PCE inflation metric more closely watched by the Fed (2.3% in March) remains above its 2% policy target.
A temporary boost in macro liquidity has also supported markets. The Fed's total assets rose slightly from $6.70 trillion on April 30 to $6.73 trillion in early May. FED Net Liquidity (balance sheet + TGA - RRP) increased from $4.89 trillion to $4.94 trillion over the same period, releasing approximately $50 billion in net liquidity. The U.S. Treasury’s TGA balance rose to $583 billion, while RRP dipped to a historic low of $78 billion. This improvement in liquidity was driven by a slowdown in the Fed's QT (reducing Treasury rollover cap to $5 billion), tax season inflows into government accounts, and outflows from money market funds out of the RRP facility. It should be noted that if the Treasury conducts large-scale TGA replenishment after a debt ceiling deal in July-August—combined with an already depleted RRP buffer—it could tighten systemic liquidity again, putting pressure on risk assets.
Institutions keep adding positions, but on-chain and options data signal risks
Fueled by optimistic macro sentiment, capital has clearly flowed back into the crypto market. Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest (OI) remains elevated, with CME data showing around 660,000 BTC—about 3.4% of circulating supply—indicating sustained institutional allocation. OI on crypto exchanges also rose 12%, with positions concentrated around $100,000. Derivatives markets for Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have similarly staged strong rebounds, with ETH OI up 15% since the first week of May and SOL OI up 18% since the end of April. On-chain data shows the proportion of profit-making addresses among short-term holders has risen to about 90% for ETH and 88% for SOL, nearing historical peak thresholds (>90% typically signals a near-term top warning), increasing the risk of short-term profit-taking.
Deribit data indicates that BTC options’ near-term implied volatility (IV) fell from 65% before the CPI release to 58%, reflecting market expectations of stabilizing short-term volatility, with some institutions beginning to sell options to collect premiums. In contrast, the Ethereum options market shows a long-dated bullish structure, with active trading in high-strike call options expiring in December at $4,000–$5,000, suggesting institutional investors are positioning early at lower levels for the next upward leg.
Overall outlook: structural bull market amid short-term consolidation
In summary, the strong May rebound in core crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, and SOL has been driven by the release of macro liquidity, cooling CPI reinforcing rate cut expectations, continued institutional inflows, and rising risk appetite in derivatives markets. However, in the near term, high profitability ratios among BTC and ETH short-term holders, combined with concentrated leveraged positions in derivatives, mean that a break above or below key technical levels could trigger mass profit-taking and liquidation cascades, leading to heightened volatility. The overall market structure remains one of medium-term structural bullishness with short-term consolidation and choppiness.
SEC proposes tokenized securities exemption
Meanwhile, following our earlier analysis of Trump Media Group’s plan to launch a “DJT token,” SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce publicly disclosed that the SEC’s Crypto Assets Task Force is exploring a “tokenized securities registration exemption framework.” According to the draft proposal, the mechanism would allow certain firms to issue, trade, and settle qualifying tokenized securities via distributed ledger technology (DLT) without completing traditional securities registration.
To ensure market safety and compliance, the exemption regime includes strict conditions: firms must comply with anti-fraud and anti-market manipulation rules, provide full disclosures to users regarding platform operations, smart contract design, conflicts of interest, and potential risks, submit to oversight by SEC staff, and maintain sufficient financial resources for operations. Additionally, parties offering crypto custody services must establish on-chain security protocols and disclose custody arrangements. Initially, the framework will impose limits on the types of tokenized securities, issuance size, and trading liquidity. Only after a stable pilot phase and achievement of regulatory objectives might the scope be gradually expanded. If implemented, this framework would offer dual support—regulatory legitimacy and institutional innovation—for utility tokens like DJT that have strong political backing and real application scenarios with traffic effects.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
About HTX DeepThink
HTX DeepThink is a premium insight series crafted by Huobi HTX, focusing on global macro trends, key economic data, and hot topics in the crypto industry. It aims to inject fresh thinking into the market and help readers “find order within chaos” amid the ever-changing world of crypto.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, conducting in-depth analysis across cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. It produces comprehensive reports and expert assessments, delivering data-driven insights and strategic foresight. HTX Research plays a pivotal role in shaping industry narratives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous methodologies and cutting-edge data analytics, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, leading thought leadership and deepening understanding of evolving market dynamics.
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