WOO X Research: The largest传销 coin is about to launch, what's the valuation of Pi coin?
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WOO X Research: The largest传销 coin is about to launch, what's the valuation of Pi coin?
After a 6-year wait, the PI mainnet has finally launched.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsPi Network is a new type of cryptocurrency designed for mobile devices, emphasizing low barriers to entry. Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which require substantial power and specialized equipment for mining, Pi Network allows users to "mine" via a smartphone app, significantly lowering technical and financial hurdles, enabling broader public participation in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
At first glance, it may sound like an ordinary "crypto" project, but that's not quite the case. Pi Network was established as early as 2019, yet its mainnet launch has been repeatedly delayed. Mobile mining remains essentially "mining air," and the token acquisition mechanism places greater emphasis on inviting friends using referral codes to boost one’s own mining yield. Compared to blockchain-based consensus mechanisms like PoW or PoS, this model resembles multi-level marketing more than legitimate mining.
However, after six years, Pi Network has finally announced its mainnet launch, with several exchanges listing the token—suggesting this time Pi is serious. So how should we value the Pi coin?
Total and Circulating Supply of Pi Coin
The official final maximum supply of Pi coins has not been clearly disclosed. However, based on community discussions and whitepaper information, the total supply is generally believed to be around 100 billion Pi coins. This means that if each Pi coin were valued at $1, the fully diluted market cap (FDV) would reach $100 billion. As of the end of 2024, Pi remained in a closed mainnet phase with no full trading access, so actual circulating supply was limited. According to blockchain explorer data:
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August 2023: Approximately 1.97 billion Pi coins migrated to the mainnet (with 1.29 billion locked by users)
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September 2024: Cumulative mainnet migration increased to about 4.07 billion Pi (1.35 billion locked), representing a 106.6% surge in supply within just over a year
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January 2025: Total mainnet migration reached 5.56 billion Pi, with approximately 660 million still locked. Supply increased another 36.6% within just three months
Regarding total supply, the Pi whitepaper mentioned that by the time the mainnet opens, users might have already mined between 10–20 billion Pi coins. In other words, initial circulating supply may represent only a small fraction of the total, with most Pi coins gradually released over time through mining. This implies tightly controlled supply in the short term, but significant long-term inflationary pressure.
Market Demand and Potential User Data
Since launching its mobile mining app in 2019, Pi Network claims to have attracted tens of millions of users globally. On user base: The Pi team claims over 60 million registered users worldwide. However, it's important to note that only a portion of these users have completed KYC verification. In 2023, Pi officials stated that about 12 million people had passed KYC. Even by early 2025, on-chain data showed only around 9.11 million mainnet wallets—just 15% of claimed users.
This indicates that while registration numbers are high, the proportion of truly active users who have completed migration onto the chain is limited.
Daily active usage also reflects real demand. According to third-party blockchain explorer ExplorePi, the average number of daily active wallets on the Pi mainnet is around 20,000, peaking at approximately 42,000 in January 2025. Compared to Pi Network’s claimed scale of tens of millions of users, this level of activity is relatively low.
Valuation Models and Potential Price Range
Based on the above information, we can attempt to build several valuation models for Pi coin to estimate its price range. Common cryptocurrency valuation approaches include “market cap” and “OTC pricing.”
Market Cap: Assuming a total token supply of 100 billion and a circulating supply estimated at 10 billion:
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Benchmark against Dogecoin: Both share strong community-driven characteristics. If Pi replicates DOGE’s success, using DOGE’s current $40 billion market cap as a benchmark, Pi could reach a value of $4 per coin.
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Top 50 Market Cap: The 50th-ranked cryptocurrency currently is POL, with a market cap of $2.7 billion. If Pi enters the top 50 at launch, the token price would be around $0.27.
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Top 100 Market Cap: The 100th-ranked cryptocurrency is XTZ, with a market cap of $920 million. If Pi ranks within the top 100, the coin value could reach $0.092.
OTC: Over-the-counter (OTC) trading has long been the primary method for Pi enthusiasts to exchange coins. Without a public market, prices vary regionally:
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In mainland China and parts of Southeast Asia, there were earlier rumors of private purchases at several yuan per coin. In Taiwan, OTC buying prices have ranged between $0.23 and $0.85 USD.
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In some foreign communities, individuals are willing to privately trade small amounts of Pi at $5–$10 valuations, mainly betting on future listing gains. However, these transactions carry high fraud risks and are limited in volume, so they cannot be considered mainstream pricing.
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Some merchants and users privately agree to accept Pi coins for goods or services to get early access to the Pi ecosystem. This represents implicit OTC pricing, with Pi valued anywhere from $1 to $3 per coin. However, this is often driven by marketing or community support rather than genuine willingness to buy unlimited quantities at those prices.
Pi coin’s market valuation will depend on two key factors: supply-demand dynamics and consensus confidence:
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Supply perspective: Limited initial circulation may drive up Pi’s price, but in the long run, the massive total supply (100 billion) looms as a sword of Damocles. If the application ecosystem does not expand in parallel to absorb this supply, prices will eventually face downward pressure. Therefore, the Pi team may need to control inflation pace and increase application demand to maintain coin value.
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Demand perspective: Hundreds of thousands—or even millions—of active holders will form the foundation of Pi’s value. After exchange listings, their behavior (holding vs. selling) will directly impact market cap. If most choose to hold Pi as a long-term asset, combined with inflows of external capital, Pi’s market cap could reach tens of billions of dollars, pushing prices into the $1–$3 mid-to-high range. Conversely, if mass selling occurs upon launch, oversupply could limit market cap to the single-digit billions or lower, driving prices below $1.
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Market positioning: If Pi Network can prove it is not merely growing through MLM tactics but is genuinely delivering blockchain technology and applications, the market may assign it a higher valuation multiple—similar to XRP or BNB. Otherwise, if negative narratives (e.g., Ponzi scheme, lack of real blockchain utility) are confirmed, Pi coin may struggle to avoid devaluation.
Pi coin valuation is chaotic, but one thing is certain: short-term volatility will be extreme.
We recommend monitoring the following indicators to assess Pi coin’s valuation trend:
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Trading volume and turnover rate during the first week (reflecting market热度)
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Mainnet unlock progress (supply release schedule)
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Pi ecosystem application rollouts (determining long-term demand)
Most importantly, the overall crypto market cycle matters. In a bull market, ample speculative capital makes higher valuations more likely for Pi. Conversely, in a bear market, even strong narratives struggle to avoid losses. Recent liquidity shortages in the market further dampen optimistic valuation scenarios.
Yet, human irrationality is difficult to quantify in valuation models—and Pi Network’s greatest strength lies precisely in its strong community cohesion.
Despite lacking real-world applications, Pi has achieved widespread awareness through word-of-mouth—a trait shared with meme coins. The reason Pi Network has built such a powerful community is due to its referral system, which creates hierarchical structures where referrers benefit by attracting new users (e.g., increasing their own mining speed).
This incentive structure has kept both project and community bound together for six years. Pi has already outlasted 95% of crypto projects. Most community members have become true believers, vowing not to sell a single coin after mainnet launch—and instead planning to buy even more. With low initial circulating supply and highly loyal supporters, it is emotionally difficult to predict how high a six-year cultivated community could push Pi’s market cap. But one thing is certain: at launch, the token will experience massive price swings.
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