Arthur Hayes: The Future of Political Memecoins
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Arthur Hayes: The Future of Political Memecoins
When $TRUMP dumps, it will destroy retail holders and set the industry back many years.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX
Translation: 0xjs@Jinse Finance
Over the past century, as communication technologies have advanced, the essential skills politicians need to attract public attention have changed. To illustrate my point, I'd like to briefly review the history of U.S. presidents and key advances in communication technology.
Radio
The hottest tech stock in the 1920s was RCA, the dominant consumer radio manufacturer at the time. RCA reached a record-high P/E ratio of 73 before its crash, from which it never recovered. This is one thing to remember about tech stocks... this time is no different. Radio emerged as a military technology during World War I and was commercialized afterward, led by the United States. By 1940, nearly 80% of American households owned a radio. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, a wartime leader, became famous for his fireside radio chats, speaking directly to the public to promote pro-war propaganda necessary at the time, uniting society to sacrifice lives and wealth against Germans and Japanese. To succeed, future politicians had to secure a presence on the airwaves.
Television
Television became the primary consumer product in 1960s America, with 90% of households owning a TV set. For the first time, the entire nation could watch ruling-class propaganda together. The political turning point for television as a powerful political advertising tool was the September 1960 presidential debate between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
Nixon was the favorite to win, being the more experienced politician. People were familiar with his voice but not his face. Kennedy, by contrast, was a young, inexperienced, and polished figure. However, the televised debate showed the American public an older, worn-looking Nixon versus a youthful, energetic Kennedy. Nixon’s poor television performance shifted the momentum, and Kennedy won the election. From then on, poised TV appearances became a necessity for winning high office.
Internet / Social Media
Politicians took some time to truly leverage social media, which originated from the personal computer and internet revolution. However, by 2016, this political force had arrived. To understand the volume of political TV and radio ads purchased during a presidential election year, consider this statistic: in the 2012 U.S. presidential election, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney spent approximately $2.6 billion on TV and radio advertising.
Donald Trump's rise began almost as a joke. He entered the Republican 2016 presidential primary race. No one thought he could succeed, and Trump wasn't planning to spend heavily on TV and radio ads only to be politically beaten down. He was seen as a nuisance within the party and therefore wouldn’t receive large donations. Yet, while Trump lacked substantial campaign funding to spend lavishly on TV and radio ads, he did understand how new technology was changing the media landscape.
Pew Research estimated that in 2016, 68% of adults had a Facebook account. At the time, micro-targeting groups based on activity within social networks for political gain was uncommon. The Trump team seized this goldmine, cheaply targeting potential supporters and delivering political ads at a fraction of the cost of TV or radio. Moreover, Trump used Twitter (now called X) to communicate directly and in real-time with the public. It was raw, unfiltered, and chaotic. But it felt human, capturing the attention of both supporters and critics. Attention has always been the currency that matters, and Trump used social media to gain more attention than any other politician at a far lower cost—and won the presidency.
Podcasts
Global political figures observed the success of social media in shaping public opinion and adjusted their communication strategies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the full effect of social media spreading political propaganda was fully revealed. Governments worldwide demanded major tech social media platforms spread lies about COVID and vaccines globally while suppressing any views contradicting the official narrative. Censored and deplatformed content migrated instead to private podcasts surviving and thriving online.
By 2024, many people were getting news and forming political opinions by listening to their favorite podcast hosts. Joe Rogan is by far the most successful podcaster in the U.S., having recently signed a multi-year, $250 million deal with Spotify. Rogan influenced public opinion in the latest U.S. presidential election, especially among undecided voters. Trump appeared on Rogan’s show; Harris did not. Trump appeared on numerous podcasts popular with his base. Harris continued relying on tried-and-true TV and radio programs supplemented by stale ads on social media platforms. Trump defeated Harris because he once again leveraged advances in communication technology to connect more directly with voters.
What have we learned?
As technology evolves, information can be disseminated faster, cheaper, and to larger audiences, enabling more direct connections between politicians and the people they govern. As rulers become more humanized, they must adapt how they convey their platforms to the public. Humanization isn't always favorable for politicians, as the public quickly realizes they are just as flawed and foolish as anyone else.
TRUMP
Trump is the first politician to officially launch his own Memecoin and is arguably one of the three most influential global political figures (alongside the leaders of China and Russia, who are comparable or close). Trump pioneered a new era of political Memecoins.
I believe political Meme coins will achieve the following:
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Provide a truly real-time, global opinion poll on politicians
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Increase political campaign engagement and influence at nearly zero cost
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Bring billions into Web3
Let’s dive deeper.
Common Knowledge Game
Political popularity is a game of common knowledge. What everyone believes others believe affects our perception of politicians more than what we personally believe. This leads to information asymmetry, where we publicly believe one thing while privately believing another. As a result, we give pollsters garbage data about our true views. This leaves politicians in the dark, unable to access our genuine private opinions in real time. Conversely, if publicly supporting an unpopular politician becomes socially acceptable, unpopular candidates can pretend to be popular. In short, both governments and governed operate with imperfect information, leading to policy errors.
Political Memecoins provide a zero-knowledge proof of political popularity. Specifically, as individuals, you can now privately support a politician by purchasing their Memecoin—even if your friends despise them—without facing social stigma. Politicians thus gain access to people's true opinions. Finally, those who merely want to follow the crowd can support a politician because their Memecoin price is rising, giving them confidence to back the side everyone knows others know will win.
The rise of Polymarket exemplifies this phenomenon. Polymarket is a decentralized exchange allowing cryptocurrency-based betting on political outcomes. It gained fame through its 2024 Trump vs. Harris election prediction market, which displayed in real time who the global community believed was more likely to become the next U.S. president. Anyone with internet access and cryptocurrency could bet on the outcome, enabling participants worldwide to speculate.
Polymarket came under attack in the U.S. because its markets showed the Democratic candidate, establishment darling Kamala Harris, losing. Democrats tried to deceive the public into believing Joe Biden wasn’t senile and that Harris was popular. But that wasn’t true. Mainstream media used this trick until Biden self-destructed in the debate with Trump, and Harris lost the election. Yet, despite the establishment media and big tech platforms lying to the public, Polymarket clearly indicated Trump was the most likely winner. The establishment was furious because the public now had a real barometer of the election—so much so that Polymarket’s CEO faced intense backlash.
In other parts of the world, authorities may preemptively ban Polymarket to prevent unfiltered real-time expression of public sentiment. France banned Polymarket. Why would France care about a political prediction market in a non-election year? President Macron is deeply unpopular but won’t allow new elections until necessary in 2027. If a real-time market showed Marine Le Pen was most likely to win the 2027 French election, that would be bad news for him and his political allies. It could accelerate the collapse of his globalist order in France. Therefore, Polymarket had to disappear.
If the goal is a global, accessible, easy-to-understand, and impossible-to-ban popularity indicator, then politically themed Memecoins traded on DEXs are the perfect tool.
Three Attributes of Political Memecoins
Let’s evaluate political Memecoins based on the three attributes needed to create a global political popularity market:
Global Accessibility:
A Memecoin is simply a unique public address issuing a fixed supply of tokens existing on a public blockchain. The DEX itself is a piece of code executing on a public blockchain where these tokens can be traded. The most popular trading pair is [Memecoin / USDe]. Thus, anyone with an internet-connected device can trade political Memecoins.
Easy to Understand:
Do you like this politician and wish to express support?
Do you believe others like this politician or will like them in the future?
Before deciding to buy a political Memecoin, you only need to answer these two questions.
People buy TRUMP because they want to belong to the group of Trump supporters, or because they believe Trump’s popularity will increase in the future.
That’s it. No need to understand fancy economic or financial theories. You don’t need algebra, basic calculus, statistics, or probability theory. You just need to think and feel like a living person. Therefore, anyone can understand what gives a political meme coin value.
Impossible to Ban:
Memecoins are built on public blockchains, whose existence relies on miners or validators running specific software. At a high level, to destroy a public chain, you’d need to remove all miners/validators and shut down the internet.
Given the current scale and penetration of public chains, it’s impossible to remove all miners/validators. It’s like whack-a-mole—once operators are removed, profit motives attract others to join.
Since modern society depends on internet-connected devices, governments cannot shut down the internet and survive as governing bodies in their current form.
Therefore, although governments may harshly criticize the negative impacts of Memecoins from their perspective and selectively prosecute individuals and companies involved in Memecoin trading, they can never eradicate them at scale. Attempting to do so would only make Memecoin trading more popular.
What Do Political Memecoins Reveal About Politicians?
Because participants vote with their wallets, Memecoins are the purest, most honest popularity metric. When people talk to pollsters or friends, they often lie about their true political views due to fear of going against the crowd. Memecoin trading is a zero-knowledge proof of political popularity—no one knows who owns or trades what unless the trader reveals themselves. Given real digital money is at stake, it makes no sense to buy $TRUMP if you hate Trump or believe his popularity won’t rise. If you think that way, you simply wouldn’t buy it—or you’d short the $TRUMP/USDe perpetual contract. That’s why the price movement of $TRUMP reflects his true global popularity.
Belonging and greed are the two strongest incentives in Memecoin trading. Therefore, I believe we can infer specific details about politicians by examining their Memecoin charts. If a Memecoin’s price rises, it means people are satisfied with current and expected policies; if it falls, dissatisfaction is growing. As political Memecoin trading surges, we’ll be able to directly identify shifts in popularity based on discrete policy outcomes. Passed legislation, wars started, speeches delivered—all will immediately affect citizens, observable by checking the post-event price performance of a specific political Memecoin.
Most politicians only want the public to know when others like them, not when others despise them. So why would they launch their own Memecoin? I believe in so-called democracies, any politician formally endorsing their own Memecoin will soon become a political necessity. To understand why, let’s discuss how to win elections.
Political Memecoins as Campaign Tools
To win elections, politicians must get people to show up and vote. This is hard because voters have too many other things to do. But if a politician has a Memecoin and you’ve bought it, it’s in your best interest to vote to preserve its value. Thus, Memecoins are the most effective political engagement tool ever created. They directly tie economic benefit to every voter’s support—not just large campaign donors.
Any challenger using a political Memecoin in a campaign gains an advantage. They can offer direct economic incentives for voting without spending money. Memecoins are the most effective form of political advertising because they act as viral digital word-of-mouth. Trump succeeded instantly, enacting campaign finance reform without even realizing it.
To activate their supporters, challengers will participate in online events at zero cost. Trump won the 2024 election because he was willing to appear on podcasts like Joe Rogan. The next major election cycle will be decided on X-spaces or Discord channels. Politicians’ goals will be to discuss their platforms and grow the number of Memecoin holders. One-to-many conversations via internet and social media are free; building communities is difficult and time-consuming. But when everyone stands to gain economically from political success, building a fanatical supporter base becomes much easier. This is far more effective than broadcast, TV, or internet ads.
Many "old-school" politicians won’t believe me. But in the U.S., at least, the 2026 elections will see a wave of new personal political brands created via Memecoins, defeating supposedly invincible incumbents. What if Elizabeth Warren, Nancy Pelosi, and Maxine Waters all lose to new contenders from their own parties due to political Memecoins?
While we may need to wait a few years for the political Memecoin earthquake to shake Pax Americana, its effects might appear soon in Europe. Germany holds new elections next week. The establishment is doing everything to stop AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) from gaining power. What if AfD creates massive political Memecoins for every candidate? What if they become Germany’s largest party, gaining so much support that no government can form without them?
I know time is short, but creating a political Memecoin takes less time than being rejected from entering the Bundestag.
What if, after a reshuffle of the UK Conservative Party, Keir Starmer is forced to call a new election to avoid creepy old men seducing young girls—could Reform UK launch a series of political Memecoins backed by their future MPs to retake Parliament? I don’t know, but Memecoins are the most popular way to spread crowd wisdom, and Trump has just opened Pandora’s box.
Campaign Finance Thought Experiment
For any reader with new ideas, eager to serve society but empty pockets, this article can serve as a blueprint to fund your budding political career.
Let’s have some fun. Imagine Alex Jones, the bankrupt Infowars host, wants to run for the U.S. Senate seat in New York in 2026 against powerful incumbent Chuck Schumer. Alex clearly has no money and lacks credibility with large corporate donors. While some may agree with his views, no one wants to risk backing a loser in broad daylight.
Alex decides to fund his campaign by issuing a $JONES Memecoin. At launch, only 10% of the supply circulates, with 90% held by Alex’s campaign organization, unlocked. Experienced Memecoin traders might scream “RUG PULL” since the campaign holds a large amount of unlocked tokens. But the campaign needs to raise funds by selling tokens.
Anyone buying $JONES implicitly understands they are providing exit liquidity for the campaign. The campaign must sell Memecoins to raise money, so buyers who purchase $JONES at higher prices are effectively donating to Alex’s campaign. However, if Alex wins, the price of $JONES will skyrocket.
$JONES holders will be incentivized to promote Alex’s political platform and how it benefits constituents. This brings more buyers, enabling the campaign to raise more funds by selling Memecoins, increasing Alex’s chances of winning, driving up $JONES price, and so on. Additionally, schadenfreude might motivate many to buy $JONES just to support the idea of seeing Schumer lose to Alex Jones.
This is how a Web3-savvy political disruptor funds a campaign and builds a viral marketing machine.
Before discussing how Maelstrom will profit from the future of political Memecoins, I want to address some of the negativity surrounding this new asset class.
Arguments Against Political Memecoins and Their Rebuttals
It’s hilarious to hear crypto folks sneer at political Memecoins. I’ll go through some major complaints and explain why I disagree.
Politicians shouldn’t profit from their office.
The simplest way to eliminate this concern is to distribute 100% of tokens at launch. Then, if a politician wants to believe in themselves, they enter the market at the same price as everyone else. If their popularity rises, they personally profit—but I’d rather have that than secret bribes from wealthy corporations and individuals behind closed doors. If politicians can earn more transparently just by holding their Memecoin, they’ll do right by the people, not the rich, because popularity itself becomes highly profitable.
$TRUMP looks sketchy because his family and close associates hold 80% of the supply. But I don’t believe so. The tokenomics are well known. If you choose to buy it, you do so with open eyes. It’s still better than the Bidens enriching themselves through massive secret bribes from foreign firms to some obscure shell company. Well, the recipients wouldn’t be addicts if it weren’t so secretive.
When $TRUMP dumps, it will destroy retail holders and set the industry back years.
Memecoin volatility is a feature, not a bug. Crypto is a free market, unlike stocks manipulated by central banks, commercial banks, and governments. Everyone knows the game is rigged. Remember GameStop? Crypto, for better or worse, is a global competitive free market without rulers. If people can now express their views on politicians through financial markets, that’s progress. If a politician deceives their followers, they’ll be voted out.
Trump should focus on passing crypto-friendly regulations, not Memecoins.
I believe Trump unintentionally gave the people a new weapon against political corruption. That’s why mainstream media tries to bury this phenomenon. They realize improper election ad spending and campaign finance deals will abruptly end. They also realize political movements previously not allowed to win can now shift common knowledge by showing the right political Memecoin price.
Memecoins, especially political ones, are useless; the industry should refocus on “real” tech.
Anyone saying this likely holds a portfolio full of zombie cryptos. Or they’re a founder of a project whose token price keeps falling. They see people expressing passion through culture and resent that money isn’t flowing into their “useful” projects. They only believe something is “useful” if ordinary people’s money goes into their pockets. Screw you and your crap coin.
Political Memecoins as an Asset Class
Maelstrom can benefit from this movement in several ways.
L1 Blockchains
L1 blockchains benefit from Memecoin trading because each transaction requires gas paid in the native token. Clearly, Solana hosts most Memecoin trading and was the launch chain for $TRUMP. However, according to Moonshot data, 50% of wallets holding $TRUMP are new Solana wallets with almost no funds. Thus, Solana may not be the main chain for most political Memecoin trading.
You know what I’m going to say. Remember, Maelstrom doesn’t offer services for free. We believe Aptos has a chance to dominate this market. It comes down to speed and cost. Aptos has the fastest block times and cheapest transaction fees among all L1s. Aptos can win this market by seamlessly integrating with Web2 platforms that already have users. Born from Web2 giant Facebook, the Aptos team has the capability to execute such partnerships. Stay tuned!
Spot.dog
Jupiter and Raydium are two of the most popular places for on-chain Memecoin trading. Their tokens have performed very well, and volumes will keep growing. However, the user experience caters more to crypto-native users. For those who just want to copy the Memecoin of a politician they admire, Spot.dog (a Maelstrom portfolio company) offers a better, simpler Memecoin trading experience. With a large user base due to its partnership with Stocktwits, we believe it will become the go-to place for ordinary people to trade Memecoins.
Political Memecoin Derivatives
Options
Political Memecoins create demand for options trading. Discrete events like elections or votes on legislation can cause sharp changes in a specific Memecoin’s popularity and price. The best way to express bullish or bearish views on outcomes is via options—giving you the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) at a predetermined strike price. Platforms like Derive (a Maelstrom portfolio company) are well-suited to pioneer these markets.
On-Chain ETFs
In the near future, when every global politician supports their own political Memecoin, traders will want to trade baskets of Memecoins tied to specific parties. Imagine being able to trade the popularity of U.S. Democrats vs. Republicans based on the token prices of all elected House members. Or in parliamentary systems, trading UK Labour vs. Conservatives. Maelstrom will definitely invest in a protocol enabling easy creation, listing, trading, and redemption of such political Memecoin ETFs.
Political Memecoins in Non-Western Countries
Will leaders in certain non-Western countries launch their own political Memecoins? Not now, not yet—but perhaps later.
While enjoying the people’s admiration through objective metrics sounds great, there are downsides when your actions cause your Memecoin’s price to drop. Ultimately, every leader—democratically elected or not—will adopt their own political Memecoin because when it comes to political popularity, people will no longer trust dishonest pollsters or mainstream propaganda machines. They will demand a political Memecoin—and eventually get one.
Political Memecoins as a Barometer
Narcissism is a required trait for successful politicians. They must have unwavering confidence in their unique ability to plan a better future for everyone and constantly tell everyone how great they are. Therefore, I believe Trump checks the $TRUMP price as frequently as he checks the S&P 500 index—in other words, constantly.
$TRUMP has fallen about 80% from its peak, while Bitcoin hasn’t reclaimed $110,000 (the level reached during $TRUMP mania). I believe if crypto sentiment improves, $TRUMP will lead Bitcoin upward. If political insiders expect certain policies to positively impact crypto, $TRUMP will surge ahead of the news, followed by Bitcoin.
Given other major fiat printing centers react to Trump’s macroeconomic and monetary policies, the U.S. leads, and the rest of the world follows. Therefore, I place $TRUMP prominently on my crypto watchlist. If I see it spike or plunge rapidly, I know something is happening.
We’ve entered a new phase of crypto capital markets. Now, we’ll have numerous forward-looking tools to trade political factors that directly impact crypto price movements.
The game has begun!
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Arthur Hayes
