Has it bottomed out? Institutions and traders analyze the outlook
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Has it bottomed out? Institutions and traders analyze the outlook
Current funding rates across major CEX and DEX platforms indicate a broadly bearish market sentiment.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On January 7, Changpeng Zhao tweeted that "Bitcoin at $100,000 is too boring." If $100,000 seems dull, what about Bitcoin at $91,200? Perhaps all that remains is doubt and unease. The market initially expected an upward continuation, but instead faced the opposite: Bitcoin has declined steadily since January 7, briefly dipping to around $91,200.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 50 today, down from 69 yesterday (with a weekly average of 74 last week), marking a sharp decline in sentiment to levels last seen in October 2023. The crypto market did not deliver the dream start investors hoped for, but rather volatile swings. Since December last year, price movements have resembled a rollercoaster, leaving many market participants—especially holders of altcoins—emotionally drained by minor rallies followed by sharp drops.
Data doesn't lie. According to Coinglass, as Bitcoin continues its downward trend, funding rates across major CEXs and DEXs now indicate widespread bearish sentiment. With both market sentiment and prices weakening, how do industry experts view the outlook?
Real Vision Co-Founder: Market entering the "Banana Singularity" zone; altseason to follow consolidation
Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, stated that the cryptocurrency market is entering the "banana singularity" zone—a period when "everything goes up." ("Banana zone" is a term coined by Raoul Pal to describe periods of significant price increases.)
Raoul Pal noted that the market remains within the banana zone. The first phase of this bull market was the breakout in November last year. This will be followed by a consolidation phase similar to the 2016/2017 cycle, which won’t last long. The next stage—the "banana singularity"—will mark an altseason where "everything rises," followed by broader consolidation.
CryptoQuant CEO: Altcoin market in zero-sum PvP game; only a few projects will survive
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, said on social media: "The altcoin market is currently in a zero-sum PvP (player versus player) game. Although Bitcoin's market cap has doubled, the total market cap of altcoins remains below previous all-time highs. Capital is merely rotating internally without new inflows. Only a small number of altcoins with strong use cases and compelling narratives will survive."
Trader Eugene: BTC, ETH, and SOL face critical support breakdowns; panic begins to set in
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media: "This is when most people start panicking, for the following reasons:
• BTC, ETH, and SOL are retesting their early December lows, and markets are starting to accept that these support levels may not hold.
• BTC’s next major support lies far below at $85,000.
• Psychological reliance on a 'January bull run' is fading. Most realize their unrealized gains have gone through a full cycle and they’re now sitting on losses. They find not only have profits vanished, but their affection for their held assets has waned amid the downturn."
Glassnode: A Bitcoin break below $88K could trigger further downside
Glassnode stated: "The short-term holder cost basis ($88,000) remains a key level for assessing Bitcoin’s price momentum. URPD indicators show limited volume trading below this level, suggesting that a break below it could lead to further downward pressure."
Trader TraderS: Short-term Bitcoin range-bound; focus on Friday’s NFP data
Twitter KOL and trader TraderS tweeted: In the short term, $92,750 might be the near-term bottom (or second-lowest point). Recently, Bitcoin may trade between $92,000–$102,000, or more broadly between $88,000–$108,000. Before Trump’s inauguration on January 20, there may still be time and sentiment for one final push above $100,000—or even a test of prior highs. If such a move occurs, I’ll liquidate most positions to observe Trump’s actual policy impact post-inauguration. If no opportunity arises before January 20, we may have to rely on traditional patterns and wait for the 'spring rally' between Chinese New Year and mid-March. Friday night’s non-farm payroll (NFP) report could be the most important data point setting the tone for the coming weeks—watch it closely.
Crypto KOL Ansem: Market to enter sideways consolidation, but on-chain opportunities remain
Crypto KOL Ansem wrote: The current baseline view is that August to December marked the altseason, with October to December experiencing a mini-bubble in AI tokens. He expects the market to enter a prolonged period of sideways consolidation until investors broadly believe the bull market has ended. During this time, some on-chain projects will outperform, and many new projects will emerge worth participating in.
Trader Kruge: Market overly pessimistic; Fed rate-cut cycle isn’t over; new highs still expected
Prominent trader Kruge posted a lengthy thread on Twitter sharing his market outlook: People are far too bearish right now. I think this comes down to timeframes. Most crypto natives are exhausted, even traumatized. Normally, such sentiment could signal a market top. But this time, traditional finance (TradFi) is buying Bitcoin—not just Michael Saylor acting alone. They couldn’t care less about the trauma of crypto natives.
So ask yourself: Has the stock market topped out? That’s the real question. ETFs should ensure correlations persist. To answer that, ask another: Is the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle over? I don’t think so. We’ve just heard the Fed announce a temporary pause in hikes—already priced in. Temporary, not permanent. Listen to what Fed officials are saying—they still advocate further cuts. Yet the market has priced in almost only one rate cut for 2025. Three months ago, it was pricing in seven.
Kruge added: The narrative will shift again soon—away from hawkish Fed fears and long-rate selloffs. Trump is also about to take center stage. Meanwhile, given the weak economic data and technical charts we’ve just received, I wouldn’t be surprised if BTC enters the $80,000 range. But to me, that would just be short-term noise requiring prudent risk management. I do believe traders will become increasingly aggressive sellers once BTC exceeds $100,000, slowing the ascent—especially before reaching $105,000. I also believe macro factors are regaining importance. I don’t expect a 'easy mode' ahead. The days of easy money are over. But I still expect Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs. We still have a long year ahead.
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