Crypto KOL's 2024 Investment Insights Summary
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Crypto KOL's 2024 Investment Insights Summary
In the field of crypto investment, there are in fact two investment logics: one is the so-called technological determinism, and the other is community-centric.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: NingNing
In summary, my personal investment approach in 2024 has been to copy Ray Dalio’s All Weather investment principles—diversifying my portfolio across every cycle influencing the crypto market (seasonal cycles within the year, 4-year bull-bear cycles, Gartner innovation cycles, and Merrill Lynch clock cycles)—while following Taleb’s barbell strategy, focusing on Alpha assets from Beta sectors and Beta assets from Alpha sectors.
Currently, my portfolio's Alpha assets are primarily concentrated in chain abstraction, AI Agents, and PayFi projects. These additions have helped my portfolio easily outperform the broader market in December. However, while rebalancing my portfolio at year-end to capture potential Alpha gains in Q1 2025, I suddenly realized that my Alpha allocation logic has been quite narrow—centered solely around the narrative of technological "disruptive innovation."
Recently, after hearing Bing, co-founder of MegaETH, speak about community vibe during a Space session, I found myself reflecting late at night, lying in bed.
In crypto investing, there are actually two distinct logics: one is technological determinism; the other is community supremacy.
Typically, as a rational non-believer, I’ve tended to dismiss community vibes and cult-like cultures as noise jointly manufactured by scammers and fools chasing short-term gains—something I usually ignore.
But recently, because I became bullish on Abstract—the consumer chain in the chain abstraction space—I acquired Fat Penguin NFTs, which gave me my first firsthand experience of community vibe not as an observer, but as a participant. This experience rekindled a long-lost sense of social belonging and communal acceptance. Combined with Bing’s insights, it prompted me to consciously break out of my cognitive bubble and begin exploring projects with strong community vibes, such as Monad, Sonic SVM, MegaETH, and BeraChain.
Sonic SVM is the first implementation of Sonic’s Solana L2 stack architecture, HyperGrid. It positions itself as the Web3 TikTok Chain, targeting millions of Gen Z gaming consumers on TikTok.
Previously, I wrote a detailed research thread on Sonic (see retweet), and throughout the writing process, the host’s “spin-off board” theory kept echoing in my mind. Frankly, at that time, I didn’t fully appreciate the real value behind narratives like consumer chains or community vibes. From a technical standpoint, while Sonic’s HyperGrid made sense, it lacked the allure of newer L2 primitives like Preconf, Based Rollups, or parallel EVMs.
Yet half a year later, comparing Sonic SVM’s operational metrics and community maturity against those technically sexier L2s reveals a massive gap between building for consumers versus abstract technical innovation—both in product execution and tangible outcomes.
Sonic SVM is currently building SonicX, a TikTok app layer, which will airdrop its native token $SONIC to all users who register via TikTok. Leveraging account abstraction (AA), TikTok users can interact with blockchain features directly within the app without setting up a separate Web3 wallet, and claim their airdrop directly through TikTok.
Through TikTok’s advanced advertising platform and creator partnerships, SonicX has already attracted over 2 million users to participate in games, challenges, and live streams, delivering a seamless, Web2-like user experience. Additionally, Sonic SVM plans to integrate more games onto SonicX.app, gradually building out the “TikTok Chain” ecosystem, with eligible users receiving token rewards during the airdrop period.
TikTok has over 1.5 billion global users; Telegram has 900 million. But TikTok users’ lifetime value far exceeds that of Telegram. The recent frenzy around ChillGuy demonstrated TikTok users’ monetization potential. We likely won’t repeat past mistakes—like with Telegram mini-apps—where precious crypto liquidity was squandered on a flood of low-value junk users.
Back in 2023, while working at a small crypto fund, a senior colleague told me that a core tenet of value investing is “go to big markets.” After achieving 0-to-1 innovation, the ultimate winner will be whoever scales faster and strengthens their growth flywheel to capture the largest market share. Now that even Vitalik believes blockchain infrastructure is oversupplied, the next era of Web3 infra will belong to those who reach consumers fastest and dominate consumer mindshare.
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