How to Approach New Token Listings in a Bull Market: 11 Fresh Coins and Whether to Exit at Launch or Hold Long-Term?
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How to Approach New Token Listings in a Bull Market: 11 Fresh Coins and Whether to Exit at Launch or Hold Long-Term?
In most cases, the opening price remains the peak; if you can obtain the token within 5 minutes, it's advisable to take profits at the opening.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
The recent launches of MOVE and ME have shown everyone the market enthusiasm during a bull run and the aggressive performance of newly listed tokens. Looking back, OKX's new listing OL also left a strong impression, continuing its "bulldozer"-like upward momentum after a brief pullback following its initial spike at listing.
Does this mean that in a bull market, the strategy for new tokens has changed—no longer requiring immediate selling at listing? This article by Odaily reviews several recent exchange listings to explore this question.
Basic Overview
This analysis focuses on newly listed tokens from Binance, OKX, Bybit, and those simultaneously launched across multiple platforms, all within the past two months.
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Multi-platform simultaneous launches include MOVE and ME;
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Binance listings include SCR and USUAL (pre-market);
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OKX listings include MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL, and X (launched across multiple exchanges but excluding Binance and others);
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Bybit listings include MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.
Data points collected include closing prices at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 24 hours, 7 days post-listing, and current price (as of 15:00 Beijing time on December 16).
We then compare each token’s 1-hour closing price against its 5-minute closing price to assess whether the opening represents a peak.
Is the Opening Still the Peak?
The price changes are illustrated below. On average, the 1-hour closing price declined by 14% compared to the 5-minute closing price, while the 24-hour closing price showed an average decline of 7%.
This indicates that in the short term, the first 5 minutes post-launch still tend to represent the price peak. If one acquires tokens within this window, selling immediately remains a sound strategy.
Among the eight tokens with complete 7-day data, the 7-day closing price averaged an 8.7% drop from the 5-minute peak, suggesting that even over a medium-term horizon, the initial high holds.
What happens when we extend the timeframe further?
Current prices of the 11 tokens show an average increase of 25% compared to their 5-minute closing prices. However, excluding OL, the average turns into a 21% decline, with the drop widening.
The Opening Remains the Peak
In summary, for most tokens, the launch moment still tends to be the price peak. A bull market may drive higher opening prices, but it does not necessarily translate into sustained long-term gains. Even over periods of one to two months, the inflated prices caused by initial hype remain difficult to absorb. Based on statistical trends, if tokens are acquired within the first 5 minutes, selling remains the recommended strategy.
Binance New Token VANA Price Estimation
Based on historical data from the past 21 Binance Launchpool events, we estimate VANA’s price at 15.9 USDT, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $1.911 billion and an initial circulating market cap of $479 million.
The calculation method: The average annualized return from the past 21 Launchpool events was 96%. Assuming the same rate for this round, and using the average amount of BNB staked historically along with the BNB price of $726, the required VANA price to deliver equivalent returns is calculated as:
16,973,725 × 726 ÷ 4,080,000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96% = 15.93
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