Is There Still Hope for TON's Growth Under the "Trump Promise" Vision?
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Is There Still Hope for TON's Growth Under the "Trump Promise" Vision?
For the Telegram and TON, long shrouded in uncertainty, the potential "unbanning" of the cryptocurrency industry by the U.S. economy could be a powerful remedy.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: wyz
After Trump's election victory, Bitcoin surged past 76,000, with bullish momentum strengthening. Yet beyond Bitcoin’s price movements, what benefits the broader industry ecosystem most is the arrival of "alt season"—an expansion into richer growth across the market. In the short term, we’re already seeing tokens from various sectors quickly regaining traction alongside the rally. Among these, the “TON ecosystem” remains under close investor scrutiny.
Following the Pavel Durov incident in Paris two months ago, the TON ecosystem entered a crisis—or perhaps a new adjustment phase. While meme projects and mini-game initiatives within the ecosystem continue user acquisition efforts and regularly update activities, market-savvy participants appear to have sensed a limitation in TON's "faith factor."
For instance, from a market performance perspective, SOL has swiftly rebounded along with BTC, breaking above 200, while TON’s gains have significantly lagged behind.
So, what does this high-profile election event mean for TON? Within Trump’s ten crypto-related promises lies a clue. These commitments suggest not only measures supporting Bitcoin but also a broader potential "unbanning" of the cryptocurrency industry by the future U.S. dollar economy. For Telegram and TON—long shrouded in uncertainty—this could be a powerful catalyst.
Given this favorable backdrop, if the market continues its upward trajectory, what concrete developments can we expect from TON?
Favorable Development Background for TON
Prior to the Durov news, TON’s ecosystem growth was strong. Led by multiple-fold increases in the TON token, most DeFi tokens within the ecosystem saw around 10x gains. Beyond price surges, attention metrics were equally impressive: before Notcoin launched, major CEXs competed fiercely for listings to onboard new TON users; later, DOGS reignited enthusiasm across Telegram’s entire user base. These events reflect a massive underlying market base—ensuring that once the market rebounds, TON-based tokens will likely follow suit.
However, over the past two months of market sluggishness, after the TON token declined, key metrics such as TVL and DEX trading volume dropped alongside fading interest—data points now worth serious consideration.
Yet when viewed through the lens of long-term blockchain development, these figures may simply represent cyclical fluctuations inherent to any growing layer-1. This suggests we shouldn’t fear TON losing ground in the public chain race, but instead maintain a long-term outlook.
Just like the evolution of DEX trends, broader user education in the industry is laying the groundwork for high-speed blockchains like TON.
On October 28, SolanaFloor reported that Solana’s weekly DEX trading volume reached $15.78 billion, outpacing Ethereum’s $8.87 billion by 77.91%—marking Solana’s largest lead ever over Ethereum. As a result, Solana captured 35% of total cross-chain DEX volume, setting a new record.
Meanwhile, according to The Block and DefiLlama, DEX spot trading volume accounted for 14.12% of total spot volume in October—the highest since May 2023.
This trend confirms an ongoing shift: as high-speed chains gain popularity, the boundary between DEX and CEX trading behaviors is increasingly blurring.
Amid maturing on-chain liquidity provision, improved token市值 management, and the rise of small-to-mid-sized projects, combined with users becoming less concerned about specific trading environments, we’ll eventually see behavior shift toward more native on-chain transactions—where DEXs and Web3-style interactions become the default transaction model.
Compared to other chains’ infrastructure trends, TON inherently fosters a blurred line between DEX and CEX. Its Web2-like interaction design naturally dissolves transaction category distinctions, while the TON wallet embedded in Telegram drastically lowers the barrier for Web2 users to access Web3-native trading—enabling simpler, smoother on-chain transactions that could even surpass Solana’s current level of convenience.
Consider how, under Solana’s environment, top-tier DEXs can rapidly scale trading volume. For example, according to Dune, Jupiter, Solana’s leading DEX aggregator, has approached $334 billion in total trading volume—achieving in months what took Uniswap several times longer.
Moreover, Raydium, currently Solana’s most active DEX, has shown exceptional price performance—maintaining an uptrend even as BTC, ETH, and most altcoins pull back—demonstrating the inherent stability advantages DeFi and DEX protocols can offer amid volatile markets.
With both foundational infrastructure and strategic direction already in place, TON merely awaits the spark to ignite.
The Growth History of Public Chains
TON had a brilliant start in this cycle. But today, amid unclear rotation patterns, it lacks the timing advantage and external momentum enjoyed previously by Ethereum and Solana. Staying stable, maintaining robust infrastructure, and preparing for explosive opportunities remain TON’s core mission—just as it quietly prepared throughout 2023 for a 2024 upswing. By tracing Ethereum and Solana’s growth paths, we can clarify TON’s own developmental blueprint.
At the heart of a public chain’s economic model achieving positive circulation is continuous on-chain activity—essentially, all possible on-chain interactions.
On Ethereum and Solana, DEX and DeFi dominate usage, driven primarily by user engagement with dApps. Therefore, fostering diverse and multifaceted applications remains a viable path for TON.
Summarizing Ethereum and Solana’s trajectories reveals three key stages:
1. Rapid Increase in Number of Token Generations (TGEs)
In simple terms, during favorable market cycles, numerous ecosystem projects launch tokens, list them on DEXs, or initiate DeFi operations.
Ethereum began this phase in 2018, culminating in the DeFi Summer wave. This era saw the emergence of Uniswap, various wallet apps, major EVM projects, and successive launches of DEXs and DeFi protocols—all fueling business growth.
Solana emerged during DeFi Summer as Ethereum’s challenger, with its early ecosystem propelled by foundation-backed TGEs. Even though the chain wasn’t fully mature and on-chain interactions were limited, Solana’s ecosystem stimulation persisted—even surviving the SBF collapse without complete stagnation.
At the beginning of this cycle, TON experienced a surge in token issuance and remarkable price momentum—mirroring Ethereum and Solana at similar stages.
2. Growth in DeFi TVL
A direct consequence of widespread TGEs is increased Total Value Locked (TVL). Since most native applications revolve around token trading—and DeFi alone accounts for ~90% of use cases—listing tokens on DEXs and launching DeFi services naturally brings locked assets. Thus, rising TVL becomes the second essential metric in public chain growth.
Every DEX listing requires initial liquidity pools—the first form of capital lock-up. Subsequent DeFi interactions such as lending or deposits generate staking, forming the second mechanism driving TVL growth. These are incentivized via token airdrops, yield farming, and interest-bearing deposits.
During DeFi Summer, Ethereum benefited from both booming TGEs and skyrocketing DeFi token prices, increasing its TVL nearly 100-fold. Later, rising asset prices triggered another surge. Solana’s TVL growth stemmed largely from 2023’s ecosystem momentum and 2024’s project airdrops and TGEs.
Over the past half-year, TON’s TVL rose to $700 million but failed to break $800 million before retreating—a reflection of cooling ecosystem enthusiasm. Like Ethereum and Solana after their first growth waves, TON now needs to refocus on enriching application diversity. Both predecessors took roughly two years to do so—how long will TON take?
3. Accumulation of DEX and DeFi Richness
The two-year accumulation periods for Ethereum and Solana occurred respectively during the 2018 bear market winter and post–DeFi Summer cooling-off phase.
During this stage, Uniswap V1 matured on Ethereum, MakerDAO and Aave emerged, Curve and Compound launched, and SushiSwap quickly followed. Farm-style yield farming projects proliferated one after another. These innovations laid the foundation for mature DEX and DeFi ecosystems. By the time of the next application wave, Uniswap and other DEXs had iterated at least twice, while Aave and others expanded from single-chain to nearly every EVM-compatible chain.
During Solana’s buildup, DEXs like Raydium and Jupiter appeared, alongside numerous protocols allowing SOL staking. The maturity of these applications is crucial—they make services easier and faster to use, thereby locking real user funds onto the chain.
TON’s ecosystem is still immature: DEX functionality remains basic, and the number of DeFi projects is limited. Before the next breakout, the first priority must be enhancing DeFi diversity and sophistication.
The First Step in TON’s Growth
Over the past year, TON completed its first wave of ecosystem token expansion, with many tokens and mid-sized projects launching listings, airdrops, and IEOs. This drove rapid TVL growth. However, following subsequent declines in TVL and prices, enthusiasm waned, affecting ecosystem projects and requiring renewed trust-building. Now more than ever, tangible progress toward ecosystem diversification is needed—specifically, maturation of DEXs and DeFi.
In reality, TON is precisely at this stage—the first step in its growth journey.
We’ve seen how DEXs on Ethereum and Solana have matured through market cycles. So where does TON stand today? How far behind is it, and in which aspects?
TON’s performance and scalability rank among the best in the industry—second only to Solana. Yet its DEX ecosystem fails to match its technical capabilities.
Telegram features a centralized pool enabling stablecoin and TON top-ups, followed by swaps between TON and other tokens—an experience identical to CEX instant exchange. This is the primary function of Telegram Wallet. The secondary function enables on-chain interaction via integration with TON’s native wallet, TONSpace—offering an experience nearly identical to MetaMask on PC or mobile. For token swaps, STON and Dedust are commonly used, but their functionalities resemble Uniswap V1.
This highlights TON’s shortcomings in DEX development. If Telegram Wallet provides CEX-like UX, and TONSpace plus DEX enable PC/mobile interoperability, then Telegram MiniApps and Bots serve as frontends for either DEX or CEX functions. These designs optimize trading experience—but the backend, native on-chain interaction layer, clearly lags behind.
If DEXs on Ethereum and Solana offered only basic AMM pools and Uniswap V1-level swap capabilities, their respective DeFi and service ecosystems would shrink by at least 50%.
On Ethereum, most DeFi protocols extend DEX functionalities into broader financial scenarios. Only after Uniswap refined LP designs in AMMs did Ethereum see an explosion of new or replicated business models—starting with liquidity mining and yield-bearing deposits, evolving into advanced strategies like multi-pool hedging. Solana follows a similar path: being an LP in DEXs or acting as a sophisticated liquidity provider on specialized platforms is now one of the best options for asset holders.
Therefore, from a project development standpoint, for high-speed blockchains, DEXs must prioritize providing deep liquidity or modularizing trading features—making liquidity advantages a compelling reason for user adoption.
On TON, frontend access points will overwhelmingly reside within Telegram. Hence, DEXs must follow the path of Jupiter, Balancer, etc., increasing functional granularity to balance interests across all parties—users, token providers, liquidity providers, and platform developers—each needing tailored, refined tools.
Compared to advanced DEXs like Uniswap, Balancer, and Jupiter, TON’s DEXs now face an inevitable imperative: upgrading DEX and DeFi functionality.
One known project, LayerPixel—an on-chain transaction middleware—has already taken the first step by launching PixelSwap, inspired by Balancer’s features. For DEXs, airdrops are the fastest way to attract users. LayerPixel has announced that PixelSwap has initiated an airdrop program, with the official token $PIX scheduled for TGE in Q4. Amid current shifts in the TON ecosystem, PixelSwap may steadily advance, much like Raydium did.
LayerPixel is a DeFi solution suite designed for Telegram Mini Apps, enabling seamless integration between DeFi and Mini Apps. Officially dubbed “Layer 1.5” for TON, it offers modular components including wallets, DEX services (with multiple trading algorithms), and oracles. PixelWallet emphasizes account abstraction, while Pixacle delivers fast, accurate price data for dApps and smart contracts within the ecosystem.
PixelSwap is a weighted-pool DEX mirroring Balancer, supporting LBP (Liquidity Bootstrapping Pool) for token issuance—an ideal mechanism for small-to-mid-sized projects with low FDV. Given that Telegram’s ecosystem is dominated by gaming/GameFi projects, this directly addresses unmet DeFi demand. LBP allows smaller projects to conduct fair token launches while maintaining reasonable price stability during early stages.
During rapid growth phases, basic DEXs dominate. But during downturns, maintaining stable prices on DEXs becomes harder than on CEXs. At such times, finer design enables win-win outcomes: for B2B, better control; for end-users, non-official LPs can behave more like professional market makers on centralized exchanges—actively securing returns, isolating risks, and stabilizing prices.
At this precise moment—during a growth correction phase—such DEXs emerge right on time.
Beyond PixelSwap, TON also needs enhanced liquidity sharing among DEXs and potentially cross-DeFi liquidity hedging structures. Currently, after launching a token, projects cannot easily establish staking farms or diversified deposit products across multiple DeFi platforms.
One reason Solana saw rapid growth in locked value is that lending, staking, and restaking platforms actively added support for new tokens—projects like Marginfi and Meteora on Solana proactively integrated newly launched tokens into their pools. Even if most offered no yield, incentive mechanisms such as points or airdrop expectations encouraged users to deposit large amounts in hopes of future rewards. If TON replicates this model, similar effects can be expected.
Final Thoughts
Prior to the Durov incident, expectations for TON were extremely high. Yet declining ecosystem momentum has left both projects and investors struggling. Still, this rhythm is familiar within the industry. Some investors maintain extraordinary long-term conviction in projects. Regardless of when the next catalyst arrives—whether in weeks or months—it remains valuable time for builders to strengthen the ecosystem.
At this stage, users and projects will gradually recognize the differences brought by new DEXs and features. One day soon, they may notice that a new DEX like PixelSwap has attracted substantial TVL, established numerous staking pools, and signaled that the ecosystem is ready for another growth wave—one prepared to handle rising trading volumes, continuous new project launches, and rapidly expanding liquidity pools and yield farming opportunities.
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