Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: The crypto winter began long ago, and spring is now just around the corner.
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Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: The crypto winter began long ago, and spring is now just around the corner.
The winter began in January 2025. Spring is surely not far off.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitwise
Translated by Chopper, Foresight News
The bad news is: we’ve been in a crypto winter since January 2025. The good news is: we’re likely closer to the end of this winter than to its beginning.
I want to state something obvious—because I believe it will help you make better decisions over the coming months: we are squarely in a full-blown crypto winter.
I find that few people online or in mainstream media talk about this—but it’s an undeniable fact. Bitcoin is down 39% from its all-time high in October 2025; Ethereum is down 53%; and many other crypto assets have fallen even further.
It’s critical to recognize what this truly is. This is not a bull-market correction or a brief dip. It’s a full-fledged crypto winter—comparable in severity to the 2022 winter, as brutal as the wilderness survival ordeal Leonardo DiCaprio endured in *The Revenant*. Its causes range from excessive leverage to mass profit-taking by early participants.
For me, acknowledging and accepting this fact brings extraordinary clarity.
Why are crypto prices falling despite positive developments in real-world adoption and regulation? Because we’re deep in a crypto winter. Why is the new Fed Chair a Bitcoin supporter, yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits in the “fear” zone at historically elevated levels? Because we’re in a crypto winter.
Those who lived through the winters of 2018 or 2022 will recall that, at their depths, good news means nothing. A rally won’t arrive simply because Wall Street is hiring aggressively or Morgan Stanley is ramping up crypto exposure. These developments matter long-term—but not right now. Crypto winters don’t end in euphoria; they end only when exhaustion sets in.
So when will this winter end? The good news is: I believe we’re nearing its conclusion.
Historical Patterns of Crypto Winters
Crypto winters typically last about 13 months. For example: Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed in December 2018; it peaked again in October 2021 and bottomed in November 2022.
Applying this pattern, we’d expect more hardship ahead. After all, Bitcoin peaked in October 2025—so must we wait until November 2026? I don’t think so.
Upon deeper analysis of the current winter, I’ve grown increasingly convinced it actually began in January 2025. We just didn’t see it—because inflows into ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) masked the truth.
ETF and DAT Flows Masked the 2025 Winter
Take a close look at this chart showing the performance of the Bitwise 10 Large-Cap Crypto Index constituents since January 1, 2025.
Year-to-date returns for Bitwise 10 Large-Cap Crypto Index constituents (2025). Data source: Bitwise Asset Management
They fall clearly into three groups:
- Group One assets (BTC, ETH, XRP) performed relatively well, declining only 10.3%–19.9%;
- Group Two assets (SOL, LTC, LINK) experienced a standard bear market, down 36.9%–46.2%;
- Group Three assets (ADA, AVAX, SUI, DOT) were decimated, plunging 61.9%–74.7%.
The key distinction among these groups largely boils down to whether institutions have direct investment access. Group One assets received massive institutional support via ETFs/DATs throughout the year; Group Two assets saw ETF approvals in 2025; Group Three assets never did. (Note: XRP is an exception—it had no ETF in early 2025 yet performed strongly, likely due to the U.S. SEC dropping its existential lawsuit against Ripple in early 2025, triggering a sharp rebound.)
The scale of institutional support is staggering. For instance, during the period shown in the chart, ETFs and DATs collectively purchased 744,417 bitcoins—worth roughly $75 billion. Imagine where Bitcoin would be without that $75 billion floor: I estimate it would be down ~60%.
The retail market has been in a brutal winter since January 2025. Institutional flows merely masked this reality—for some assets—temporarily.
It’s Always Darkest Before Dawn
What’s vital to remember right now is that there’s actually a tremendous amount of real, tangible progress underway across crypto: regulatory advances are real; institutional adoption is real; stablecoins and tokenized assets are real; Wall Street’s embrace is real.
In bear markets, good news gets ignored—but it doesn’t disappear. Instead, it accumulates as latent energy. Once the clouds part and market sentiment normalizes, that pent-up energy will unleash itself with explosive force. What will part the clouds? Strong economic growth driving broad risk-asset rallies; positive signals from the Clarity Act; signs of sovereign Bitcoin adoption—or simply the passage of time.
As a veteran who’s weathered multiple crypto winters, I can tell you: the feeling just before a winter ends feels exactly like this—despair, helplessness, lethargy. Yet this market correction hasn’t altered crypto’s fundamentals one bit.
I believe the rebound will be faster—and more violent—than expected. After all, this winter began in January 2025. Spring is surely not far off.
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