Bullish sentiment surges, November BTC options concentrated at $80,000
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Bullish sentiment surges, November BTC options concentrated at $80,000
$100,000 might just be a matter of time.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy BitpushNews
On Tuesday, gold extended its gains while U.S. equities and the crypto market traded sideways.
According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin bulls continued to face resistance between $68,000 and $70,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,672, with a 24-hour volatility of less than 1%.
Over the past 24 hours, altcoins showed weak momentum, with more tokens declining than rising among the top 200 by market cap. The biggest gainers were Popcat (POPCAT), up 9.8%; Ponke (PONKE), up 9.4%; and Uniswap (UNI), up 4.7%. The largest decliners were ApeCoin (APE), down 17.4%; Scroll (SCR), down 13.3%; and dYdX (DYDX), down 10%.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $2.33 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market dominance at 57.3%.
In U.S. markets, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed nearly flat, while the Nasdaq rose 0.18%. Spot gold hit a new high above $2,748 per ounce during the session.
November Bitcoin Options OI Concentrated at $80K, $100K Just a Matter of Time
According to data from cryptocurrency exchange Deribit, open interest (OI) for call options expiring at the end of November is concentrated around $80,000—the value or number of outstanding futures contracts that have not yet expired.
While many analysts have linked BTC's trajectory to increased odds of a Trump victory, David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX, said in a Bloomberg interview that Bitcoin "could perform well regardless of the election outcome."
"It feels inevitable that Bitcoin will break through its all-time high, and we're getting closer to that point," said Joel Kruger, Market Strategist at LMAX Group, in a report. "The market has performed very well in recent days, consistent with seasonal trend analysis predicting strong performance in October."
He added: "The next major hurdle is $70,000, aligning with July 2024 highs and approaching the March record high of $73,835. So far, options and strike prices have acted as an upper bound on the market. But pressure is building for a breakout above $70,000, which, according to our technical analysis, could set the stage for surpassing the historical peak."
Regarding Bitcoin’s price ahead of the election, John Glover, CIO at Ledn, noted: "Current support sits at $65,000, and I believe BTC will test the previous high of $73,000 in the days leading up to the election."
Analysts broadly agree that the upcoming U.S. election is the primary driver in the current crypto market. However, according to TradingView analyst TradingShot, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle will soon become the dominant force in the cryptocurrency market.
"It's been a while since we last used Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) to analyze Bitcoin, but now is the perfect time for an update—just two weeks before the U.S. presidential election, as the market prepares for a bullish breakout. This time, we’re looking at price action every four years on this date," he wrote in a Tuesday update.
TradingShot explained: "Bitcoin’s trading cycle is roughly four years, highly symmetrical, and likely to repeat each time. Currently, near the end of October 2024, the price is trading within the range between the average MM (black trendline) and the first SD above it (gray trendline). It has already begun rising from the average MM."
He pointed out: "According to the four-year cycle theory, price movements in October 2020, October 2016, and October 2012 fell within remarkably similar ranges—a symmetry clearly demonstrated by this indicator once again. We can also observe that every four years around this time, prices begin rising from the average MM, just as they are doing now. The green rectangles in the chart above show the time intervals between these four-year cycles and their respective bull market peaks. In October 2012, it took 58 weeks (406 days) to reach the peak; in October 2016, 60 weeks (420 days); and in October 2020, 55 weeks (385 days). Thus, in terms of timing, the cycle tends to peak around the same period each time."
TradingShot concluded: "Assuming again the 'worst-case scenario' merely 'touches' the 2 SD trendline, we can set a target range of $190,000–$250,000, depending on whether the price reaches that level midway or toward the end of the 55-week window. Nonetheless, Bitcoin appears to be entering an exciting rebound phase."
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