Nothing Research Partner: Buying at Highs Is the Real Bottom Fishing – Insights on This Bull Market
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Nothing Research Partner: Buying at Highs Is the Real Bottom Fishing – Insights on This Bull Market
"In a bull market, any bet against rising prices is foolish."
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Allen Ding
⌛️ Two years ago, I set the overall strategy for my moves in this bull market—a framework all longtime followers already know:
1. Go all-in on spot holdings early; holding crypto assets is the right mindset during a bull run. That’s why I personally went fully invested in November 2022 when Ethereum was at $1,180;
2. Heavily overweight Bitcoin and Ethereum, strictly limiting small-cap altcoins to fewer than 10;
Currently, my portfolio allocation is 20% Bitcoin, 60% Ethereum, and 20% small-cap altcoins.
3. Look for opportunities to leverage long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, but never exceed 2.5x total portfolio leverage;
Why use leverage? Because it can amplify gains—and this cycle might be the last big surge regular investors get to enjoy in crypto. Why cap it below 2.5x? Because I believe drawdowns exceeding 30% will be common during this bull market, making high leverage extremely risky for liquidation.
4. Don’t sell unless clear topping signals appear—but once those signs show up, sell decisively.
So far, I’ve executed points 1 and 2 quite well, but point 3 remained unfulfilled—this has been a lingering frustration. Finally, five days ago at Bitcoin ~$63,500 / Ethereum ~$3,500, I opened a 0.8x leveraged position, bringing my total portfolio leverage to 1.8x. I’ll admit this entry point isn’t ideal—it feels more like settling than striking. After all, BTC bottomed around $15,000 this cycle, ETH near $900; I’m entering with leverage at roughly four times the bottom price. Still, I made the decision to join here because I’ve come to realize some important truths.
1. The players have changed
The approval of ETFs has allowed traditional U.S. institutional capital to flow freely and openly into crypto—this is seawater flooding a fish pond. The pond's own fundamentals no longer matter. This explains why, after ETF approval, Bitcoin didn’t see the deep correction I expected, but instead quickly reversed upward and kept hitting new highs. Even when technical indicators looked bearish, prices kept rising—the reason being that in a flooded pond, it’s not the pond’s technicals that matter, but the ocean’s. Recently I spoke with many skilled traders and technical analysts around me—most have missed this entire move and only began joining the blockchain revolution over the past month.
“If you surrender fast enough, you become part of the revolution.”
2. The whales have changed, and so have the rules
In the past, the main market makers were exchanges and market makers who profited from volatility. In a bull run, how high Bitcoin went wasn’t the key—it was about amplitude and swings. High volatility keeps gamblers excited; the more frequently retail traders open positions, the more fees exchanges collect and the wider the arbitrage spreads for market makers. But this time, the dominant players are Wall Street firms launching ETFs, whose revenue comes not from trading fees but management fees. A $5 billion fund charging 0.2% earns them $10 million; a $50 billion fund earns $100 million; a $500 billion fund earns $1 billion—all at the same 0.2%. So tell me, do they want the market to grow bigger or shrink? Obviously bigger—because only a larger market means higher management fees. And how does the market grow bigger? By pushing Bitcoin’s price higher. With a fixed supply, the higher the price of Bitcoin, the larger the total market cap.
“Figure out what the whale wants. Determine whether they’ve achieved it yet. If not, join them.”
3. It’s not high until it makes a new high—then the real run begins
I vaguely remember January 2021—I was ringing in the New Year in Yunnan with my partner 0xTodd, soaking in hot springs while eating wild mushroom hotpot. We watched Ethereum surge from $700 to $1,300 in one month—an incredible 78% gain—that completely blew my mind. At the time, we were approaching the previous all-time high of ~$1,400. Now, Ethereum hit $2,283 on February 1st and currently trades at $4,018—an increase of about 76%, again nearing its prior peak above $4,800. Doesn’t this moment feel eerily familiar? If you think Ethereum is expensive now, congratulations—you probably also thought $1,300 was expensive back then, and thus missed out on $4,800.
“Sometimes, chasing high is the real form of buying the dip.”
4. ATHs often require multiple attempts to break—but seize every opportunity, especially the first one
The main reason I chose to add leverage on March 6th was that I viewed the liquidation data and pullback following the failed ATH attempt on March 5th as healthy, with strong rebound momentum. During the 2021 bull run, I recall it took 4–5 attempts at the daily level before finally breaking the ATH. This cycle, backed by powerful ETF inflows, resistance at ATH should be lower than last time. So when I saw what I considered a qualified pullback, I entered immediately—because I didn’t want to risk there being no second or third chance.
“In a bull market, betting against price increases is always foolish.”
Finally, I hope my thoughts give some encouragement to those who haven’t gone all-in yet. We’re likely only at the first quarter of this bull market. Ahead lie explosive rallies in Ethereum and other major coins, massive reshuffling among the top 100 projects by CMC market cap, chaotic altseason madness, and full-on zoo domination over humanity. Opportunities abound—each phase offers 5x to 10x returns. Don’t miss this cycle!
⚠️ Last note: I do NOT encourage anyone to use leverage🈲, especially high-leverage contracts🈲. I myself was burned by excessive leverage in the last cycle—a warning I repeat in every livestream. This article merely shares my thinking process and is NOT an endorsement to open leveraged positions or futures contracts.
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