Only a few make money in a bull market—how to avoid "kicking yourself" when it happens?
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Only a few make money in a bull market—how to avoid "kicking yourself" when it happens?
Here comes the "Bull Market Survival Guide."
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Day, Baicai Blockchain
Recently, the overall market has been performing well, with Bitcoin breaking through $42,000 and Ethereum surpassing $2,200. Not long ago, it was common to see various "get-rich-quick" screenshots circulating in communities every day—easily triggering FOMO (fear of missing out), leading people to recklessly jump in. But when they finally settle the accounts, many realize they’re still at a loss overall, let alone having outperformed Bitcoin or Ethereum.
As someone who’s been in the space for over six years—a seasoned “old cabbage” who’s lived through a full bull-and-bear cycle—I’d like to share some survival tips for bull markets. If even a tiny part of this helps you, then this article has served its purpose. After all, knowing and doing are two different things. Some lessons only hit home after you’ve fallen into the pit. Moreover, when swept up by mass sentiment, few can remain truly rational.
01 The minority always win during bull markets
A bull market is a relative concept, referring to periods in the cryptocurrency market when prices rise continuously. In such an environment, investors generally feel optimistic about crypto's future, believing their value will keep increasing.
Why do cryptocurrency prices go up? Simply put, when buying volume exceeds selling volume, prices naturally rise. Regardless of any positive news or technical support, the root cause is increased capital inflow. The 2017 bull run was driven by a surge in individual participants entering the industry, while around 2020, it was fueled by massive institutional inflows and central bank liquidity injections. The prevailing view in the crypto space is that bull and bear cycles occur roughly every four years—and so far, this pattern holds. What will drive the next market upswing remains unclear.
Do we really need a survival guide for a bull market? Shouldn’t money be everywhere to pick up? It feels like everyone’s making easy gains when a bull market arrives. People love looking back at past bull runs, regretting all the opportunities they missed—but in reality, very few actually captured significant value when living through them. All we see are a handful of people celebrating; a bull market merely increases that number slightly.
When the market heats up, logic often goes out the window. Once a sector starts rising, anything remotely related—or even loosely associated—takes off too. In such an environment, it’s hard not to become restless: restless if profits are small, restless if you’re out of the market, even more restless if you’re losing. And once emotional, you’re prone to bigger losses. During deep bear markets, most people avoid excessive risk, yet it’s often precisely in so-called bull markets that they suffer devastating losses. Remember, Luna and FTX collapsed at the tail end of a bull cycle.
02 How to avoid “kicking yourself later” in a bull market
The blockchain industry has evolved significantly—so have its concepts and sectors. Entry barriers are higher than ever, making the space increasingly unfriendly for the average retail investor.
Here are key points to help prevent future regrets:
1) New narratives
Each major market cycle brings new narratives: digital gold in 2013, blockchain applications in 2017, DeFi in 2020 followed by Ethereum’s core ecosystem trends like DeFi, NFTs, metaverse games, and then new layer-1 chains replicating Ethereum’s ecosystem—all were narratives centered around Ethereum. What could be the next potential theme? Currently, Bitcoin’s ecosystem appears highly probable.
The crypto industry has always been “shiny-object” obsessed. In the upcoming cycle, new narratives will likely outperform old ones. Innovation typically begins on-chain. Emerging themes in this current cycle include Bitcoin ecosystem projects, Layer2 solutions, LSD (liquid staking derivatives), account abstraction, bots, AI, and decentralized social networks. Feel free to add more.
2) Consensus and open-mindedness matter
For any concept to break into the mainstream, it must first achieve consensus—otherwise, no one bothers to learn about it. From Bitcoin to Ethereum, to last cycle’s NFTs and blockchain games—the trend holds. While technology matters, without value capture, even dogs wouldn’t care. But once price rises, plenty rush in to justify its worth. Therefore, the most important thing is to approach new narratives with curiosity—regardless of how much criticism or opposition they receive. Stay informed, stay observant. Maintaining an open mindset is crucial in this industry.
3) Market leaders
How to identify the leader in a sector? The simplest method: look at market cap. The project with the highest market cap is usually the leader. Leaders often set precedents, command premium valuations, and tend to exhibit the “winner-takes-most” effect. Innovative projects carry higher risks and demand significant attention. However, some sectors lack clear leaders—like SAND and MANA in the metaverse space—or leadership may shift over time, as seen when NFT dominance moved from CryptoPunks to Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC).
4) Moves by top-tier institutions
While elite institutions are often accused of “market manipulation,” and projects they touch frequently launch as giants—leaving little room for retail profit—their influence across the industry is comprehensive. Tracking their investments and attitudes toward emerging trends remains valuable. After all, they sit atop the food chain and generally possess sharper industry insights. A few notable names: leading platforms, a16z, Paradigm, etc.
03 Common pitfalls to avoid
Although profits become easier in a rising market, human nature remains unchanged: those at a loss want to recover, those profiting want more—and seeing others succeed easily triggers FOMO, pushing people toward reckless bets that can lead to total wipeout. Here are four common traps:
1) Leveraged contracts
Many newcomers have heard warnings against leveraged contracts, but under strong market momentum, exchanges constantly push them. Playing isn’t the worst part—if you lose immediately, the pain teaches you fast. The real danger is winning early. Like a game, they give you a taste of success, making you believe you’ve mastered it—then you fall deep into the trap. Others come to make money in the bull market; you come to recover losses. Can you profit from contracts? Sure. But very few sustainably earn from it. Truly achieving financial freedom via contracts is extremely rare.
2) All-in bets
Don’t aim to get rich in one move—it’s nearly impossible. In this space, what matters most is preserving your principal and staying at the table. Don’t let the perfect opportunity pass by while you watch helplessly, unable to place even a single chip. Also, learn to respect the market. Events like March 12 (“312”) and May 19 (“519”) were brutal—many veterans thought the entire industry was finished after 312.
3) Frequent trading
When the market heats up, emotions take over: restless when gains are small, restless when sitting idle, even more restless when losing. “Why isn’t my coin pumping?” leads to constant chasing and switching positions. But in the end, you’ll often find that simply holding one asset would’ve yielded better results.
Always remember: in a bull market, as long as the project team doesn’t rug-pull, most projects eventually rise. When sentiment drives the market, fundamentals matter less. Patience, patience, and more patience—is essential.
4) Herd mentality
Many follow the crowd when buying. That’s not necessarily the biggest issue—the real problem is not understanding what you’re actually investing in. Without grasping a project’s mechanics and rules, it’s easy to get trapped. Take Luna, for example: when its stablecoin began depegging, those who truly understood its mechanism wouldn’t have kept adding positions after the peg broke.
Above are some common mistakes made during bull markets—feel free to add or share your own experiences.
04 Summary
I won’t dive into position sizing or exit timing here, as these depend heavily on individual circumstances. Finding a strategy that suits you personally is paramount. Also, don’t blindly believe hype-driven statements like “miss this cycle and you’ll never get another chance.” Maintain independent thinking. This industry is still the same as before—its foundational truths haven’t changed.
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