Market Outlook and Data Analysis: Is a Frenzied Bull Market Just Around the Corner?
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Market Outlook and Data Analysis: Is a Frenzied Bull Market Just Around the Corner?
The crypto market surged, weakening its correlation with the U.S. stock market and achieving a year-high independent rally.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsA. Market Outlook
1. Macro Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is tightening. Amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, market risk aversion has intensified, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield close to the 5% threshold. The U.S. dollar index is rising, and a Fed rate-cutting cycle remains distant, with no rate hikes expected in November but a higher probability of a hike in January next year. U.S. equities have declined consecutively, hitting a six-month low. In contrast, the crypto market surged, showing weaker correlation with traditional markets and carving out an independent bull run reaching annual highs.
2. Overall Market Performance
Top 100 gainers by market cap:
BTC surged this week as market optimism grew around the potential approval of spot ETFs. Altcoins broadly rallied, with momentum focused on layer-1 blockchains and meme coins. The market naturally gravitated toward paths of least resistance—primarily non-ETH layer-1 chains such as SOL, MINA, CFX, and KUJI—which attracted less prior capital and are easier for large players to pump. In contrast, ETH-related Layer-2 projects like ARB and OP, which had significant pre-positioning ahead of the Cancun upgrade, were avoided by speculative capital. Meanwhile, on-chain activity is reviving, with numerous new meme coins emerging, signaling the arrival of meme season. Value investors favor foundational layer-1 projects, while retail traders chase emotionally driven memes—both camps see promising prospects ahead.
1. PEPE: The team recently burned $7 million worth of tokens, suggesting upcoming developments. PEPE broke out on the weekly chart, boasts high trading volume, and enjoys strong market recognition. Meme coins often experience 10x surges followed by 50% drawdowns, then another 10x rise—ideal for buying on new highs or round-number breakouts. Other meme coins such as Harry Potter Bitcoin and Joe Coin also delivered multi-bagger returns.
2. MINA: A lightweight ZK-based layer-1 blockchain recently listed on South Korea’s Upbit exchange. Recent listings on Korean exchanges have triggered pronounced price rallies, with tokens like POLYX and CYBER seeing several-fold increases.
3. TRB: A Chinese-built oracle project with lackluster fundamentals. Recently, its price broke above $100, spiking over tenfold due to speculation. A few major addresses control about 30% of supply, making it a classic example of a heavily manipulated stock-like asset. Similar cases include BLZ and INJ—investors should be cautious of short-squeeze risks.
3. BTC Market Analysis
1) On-chain Data
80% of BTC holder addresses are now in profit. Binance trading volume, after the end of its fee-free period, reached the second-highest level since April. As the market approaches its year-to-date peak, a large portion of previously underwater addresses have turned profitable.
Total stablecoin market cap remained flat with slight growth. Over the past week, USDT—the dominant trading stablecoin—grew by over $630 million, bringing its total market cap above $84 billion. As long as this trend persists, the market can sustain its recovery from the bottom.
The long-term MVRV-ZScore indicator measures overall market profitability relative to average cost basis. Readings above 6 signal market tops; below 2 indicate bottoms. MVRV recently dipped below the critical level of 1, indicating holders were collectively underwater. It has now recovered to 1.03, entering a recovery phase.
Crypto investment products recorded net inflows for four consecutive weeks. Recent inflows, totaling $66 million, may be linked to news around U.S. spot BTC ETF approvals. SOL saw an additional $15 million inflow last week, making it the most popular altcoin this year. Persistent concerns about ETH led to a $7 million outflow—the only altcoin to experience outflows last week, contrasting sharply with SOL.
2) Futures Market
Funding rates: Rates turned positive this week, indicating dominant long positioning. Rates between 0.05–0.1% suggest excessive long leverage and a potential short-term top; rates between -0.1–0% indicate heavy short leverage and a possible short-term bottom.
Open interest: Total BTC futures open interest rose significantly this week, moving in tandem with price—a sign that institutional capital is entering with bullish conviction.
Long/short ratio: 0.9. Retail sentiment remains bearish. Retail sentiment often acts as a contrarian indicator—ratios below 0.7 signal fear, while above 2.0 indicate greed. However, due to high volatility, this metric has limited reliability.
3) Spot Market
BTC broke out to a new yearly high. Shorts were liquidated en masse, driving BTC from $30,000 to $35,000 within hours. News-wise, BlackRock’s spot ETF received pre-listing clearance. Technically, BTC has stabilized above the 28,000-level Bollinger Band weekly bull/bear line, suggesting the uptrend may continue. RSI stands at 85, indicating overbought conditions and greedy sentiment—caution against pullbacks is warranted. BTC dominance reached 53%, with 55% being a key threshold. If dominance falls from 55%, altcoins may enter a rotation phase offering more opportunities.
B. Market Data
1. Total Value Locked (TVL) Across Chains
2. TVL Distribution by Chain
Total TVL rose nearly $500 million this week, up approximately 13%. After BTC broke through multiple resistance levels last week, reaching nearly $36,000, this rebound has sparked renewed hope. However, it remains unclear whether the bear market has truly ended. This week, ETH chain TVL rose nearly 15%, Arbitrum up 9.2%, Optimism up 6.8%, TRON and Polygon both up over 10%, and Solana surged more than 20%. Only Base chain saw a 1.3% decline—all other major chains posted gains.
3. Protocol-Level TVL by Chain
1) Ethereum TVL
2) BSC TVL
3) Polygon TVL
4) Arbitrum TVL
5) Optimism TVL
6) Base TVL
4. ETH Gas Fee History
Average transfer fee: ~$2.43; Uniswap trade fee: ~$8.27; OpenSea transaction fee: ~$3.21. Both gas usage and transaction costs spiked significantly this week. In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap leads the market, accounting for 12.82% of total usage. The broader market rebound is beginning to show early signs of revival in on-chain applications.
5. NFT Market Data Trends
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT Market Overview
3) NFT Marketplace Share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, floor prices of top-tier blue-chip NFTs showed mixed results: BAYC and MAYC both rose over 5%, Azuki surged 15%, and CloneX and AOI Engine gained over 20%. However, Yawanawa, which jumped over 50% last week, dropped more than 30% this week. While NFT trading volume grew notably over the past week, repeat buyers and first-time NFT purchasers continue to decline—indicating that the broader market recovery has yet to clearly revive the NFT sector.
5. Latest Project Fundraisings
6. Post-Investment Updates
1) Xterio – Web3 Game Publisher
Xterio launched the Xterio Marketplace:
1: Designed for global gamers: The marketplace is tailored specifically for international gaming communities.
2: Competitive fees and professional creators: Offers attractive fee structures to draw in professional content creators.
3: Supports crypto and fiat: Allows transactions in both cryptocurrencies and traditional fiat currencies.
2) Space Nation – GameFi
Space Nation's Alpha 2.0 10 vs. 10 test concluded on October 24.
3) Lifeform – DID
Visual DID project Lifeform announced the launch of Lifeform Premium, a new initiative to enhance the utility of Lifeform DID. The first phase will feature a Polyhedra Legend Games gacha event.
Lifeform Premium offers exclusive benefits to holders of Lifeform NFTs, including higher IEO allocation odds, airdrop rewards from premium projects, and priority access to co-branded NFT mints.
4) SpaceID – Infrastructure
SpaceID now supports Binance Oracle, a service set to launch by month-end. This oracle will source price data from centralized exchanges, aggregate it, and use a threshold signature scheme to sign individual data points before delivering them to on-chain oracle systems.
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