Bear Market Survival Guide: Facing the Unknown with Humility
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Bear Market Survival Guide: Facing the Unknown with Humility
Don't believe everything, nor disbelieve everything; find a balance between faith and deception.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Morty, TechFlow
When facing the unknown, what attitude should one adopt? Sci-fi writer Stanislaw Lem’s answer is humility.
When asked about his view on the market, @Eleven Landlord mentioned that humility—central to Lem's novels—should guide how we approach the unknown world of finance. Web3 *is* that unknown world.
The unknown often implies complexity.
Changes in a simple system are usually linear and easily predictable. But as variables increase, system complexity rises sharply. Like the famous three-body problem, we cannot precisely solve all mathematical scenarios, meaning prediction becomes impossible. The same applies to market economies shaped by countless factors.
Following the U.S. dollar liquidity surge during the pandemic and the high inflation triggered by loose monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has begun tightening through interest rate hikes and balance sheet contraction.
Under these macroeconomic pressures, the crypto market has also struggled.
The collapse of LUNA/UST was the catalyst for market breakdown—akin to Archduke Franz Ferdinand’s assassination in Sarajevo—after which the downturn became irreversible. Few escaped unscathed, with institutions hit hardest; Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, and others now face severe liquidity crises.
So, as ordinary individuals, how should we navigate this new bear market?
To find out, TechFlow interviewed several crypto KOLs who’ve weathered bull-bear cycles and traded actively in secondary markets, posing two questions:
1. What’s your take on the current market environment and its future trajectory?
2. What lessons has the bear market taught you? Any notable experiences worth sharing?
Here’s what they shared:
Sol Invictus 0xSoro @realsatoshinet
1. Whether in the real world or the crypto space, we’re undergoing unprecedented transformations. With conditions so poor, I don’t believe virtual economies can remain immune—at least not without some time to recover. After each cycle, market structures shift. Claiming clarity about direction is false; it’s more like feeling our way forward, learning as we go.
2. A bear market is an ideal time to accumulate knowledge—study relentlessly, engage with players across the industry. The most meaningful experience during a bear market may simply be persistence itself. Last cycle, many players collapsed just before dawn—a tragic loss. By chance, we held on and saw the bear market through. In reality, right before a bull run begins, something always tempts you to quit—even after enduring one or two years. Failing at the final hurdle ruins everything. Therefore, persisting until the end *is* victory.
Eleven Landlord @Eleven Landlord
1. Honestly, while I care about the market environment, I rarely analyze it. I once read several sci-fi novels by Lem, whose recurring theme explores how humans should respond when facing the unknown—and his answer is humility. If humans become arrogant, they get humbled by the ocean of Solaris, rejected by the aliens of Quinta, or driven mad by distant code. I believe Web3, or finance in general, *is* such an unknown world.
I think being overly certain—and acting accordingly—will only lead the market to punish you. So I avoid making decisions tied to financial stakes. That said, purely speculatively, given repeated blowups across public chains, capital firms, and CeFi platforms, I cautiously believe the current (June 2022) market leans bearish. Regardless, all I can do is study hard, work diligently, stay healthy, and accumulate wealth in the broadest sense.
I have immense confidence in Web3’s long-term future—my portfolio, job, and health won’t allow me to be bearish. This is my small act of pride. I don’t know how far into the future lies the next upswing, but judging from Bitcoin’s halving cycles, I expect a bull market in two years. New narratives, tools, and gameplay will emerge. These innovations—old and new—will continue reshaping Web3’s environment, transforming workflows, values, and more. We already see early signs—like soulbound tokens. Technology reshapes its environment to suit itself.
2. Pride kills. If you're fundamentally irresponsible, don’t expect to get rich from Bitcoin or Web3. Don’t quit your job recklessly. Don’t inflate your ego. Focus on accumulating broad-based wealth.
During China’s National Day holiday in 2018, I promoted Bitcoin near West Lake in Hangzhou and got detained. That incident helped some people recognize me.
In 2019, my then-girlfriend emotionally manipulated me, saying, “You have no house, no car, no money—I only stay because you treat me well,” forcing me to do chores like mopping floors, laundry, grocery shopping, and cooking. Ironically, that was when I held the most BTC. So I tweeted: If you ever face similar hardship, don’t lose hope—have courage and faith. Never doubt HODLers; you’ll deserve much more in return.
Todd @0x_Todd, Partner at Nothing Research
1. The crypto market changes rapidly, making this question difficult to answer. However, recently I came across a thread outlining three stages of a bear market—and I agree we’re currently in Stage Two. If Stage One was a slow descent of Bitcoin and Ethereum from their peaks, then Luna’s de-pegging marked the start of Stage Two. Within the industry, it devastated retail investors’ confidence and severely weakened major institutions and CeFi platforms, triggering today’s liquidity crisis. Outside the industry, widespread media criticism, looming regulation, and a global interest rate hiking cycle compound the negative sentiment.
Bull markets aren’t born overnight, nor do bear markets bottom instantly—they involve repeated rebounds along the way. Yet current internal and external conditions aren’t strong enough to support an independent crypto rally. Still, even within structural bull markets, deep corrections occur. I remain confident in crypto’s long-term future: technologically, application-wise, and talent-wise, the ecosystem is stronger than ever. After surviving another bear market purge, the true gems will shine brighter.
2. If I had to summarize everything in four words: “Don’t overcomplicate.” I entered the Bitcoin space in 2013 and have lived through two full bear markets. Generally speaking, at the beginning of a bear phase, most people merely give back profits earned during the bull run, suffering minimal actual losses. But as the bear market drags on, despite BTC only dropping ~80%, there are countless cases of people losing 99% of their capital.
Why? Because of “tinkering.” Human nature drives us to chase losses with higher risk. During bull runs, most gains come from riding industry beta plus a bit of luck—not genuine mastery of wealth creation. But if you manage funds aggressively in a bear market as you did in a bull market, the outcome is predictable. Thus, a bear market is best used for learning, building, and resting—not trying to recoup paper losses or double down.
Capital becomes extremely competitive in bear markets. Previously, smart money might have scorned 100% APY yields, but now they’ll gamble on 10% pools. For average users with limited time and focus on crypto, competing is even harder. It’s nearly impossible to outplay top predators in the market—in some ways, it’s better just to lie flat.
An interesting memory: Between 2018–2019, my only joy was debating supporters of Bitcoin big-block scaling solutions. I wrote numerous articles and blog posts. Though few of us held significant BTC (and BTC price had fallen to just thousands of USD), those debates were intellectually thrilling. We speculated deeply on Bitcoin’s future form, shaping personal “worldviews” around crypto technology. Later developments confirmed or refuted our predictions—an excellent learning process.
A bear market is the ultimate test for crypto projects and a golden opportunity for builders to reflect, learn, and build. My final wish: Learn more in bear markets, hustle harder in bull markets, ride the cycles wisely, and eventually achieve meaningful financial returns.
Rui @YeruiZhang, Investment Manager at HashKey
1. Short-term bearish. There are still many hidden bombs in crypto—Celsius and 3AC are just the beginning. Given current market conditions, artificially creating crises isn’t hard. The market has been excessively deregulated, and the massive leverage accumulated last cycle is now backfiring. Ultimately, this remains an institution-dominated market where retail investors pay the price. Whether it can rise again depends on institutional participation and retail resolve. Everyone talks about regulation, but with assets scattered globally, low liquidity, and a total market cap down to around $1 trillion, regulators have limited power. Rather than strict oversight, what we’re seeing may be selective tolerance from authorities allowing select players to bring crypto into the mainstream. Macro-economically, the world is largely struggling except for the U.S., lacking new industrial pillars. Some national currencies have completely decoupled from reality. Under such turbulence, establishing new trade systems or national reserve currencies on crypto is entirely possible. With rising financing costs, demand for higher-yielding assets increases. Capital flows to where money can be made fastest. Last cycle, capital chased growth in emerging markets; this cycle, the world’s largest casino may reward a new batch of risk-takers.
2. Many lessons learned: Don’t go all-in—keep emergency funds; seek jobs with steady cash flow. But above all, maintain a healthy mindset: don’t blindly believe everything, nor dismiss everything outright. Find balance between faith and skepticism.
Chen William @William11Chan
1. Right now feels like the most fearful and pessimistic phase—things can’t get worse from here. I’m highly optimistic about the second half of the year. The extreme overselling stems partly from institutional liquidations and widespread fear over aggressive Fed rate hikes, leaving no one willing to buy the dip. Once forced liquidations conclude and people realize the Fed lacks capacity for sustained aggressive tightening, recovery will follow.
2. The bear market taught me three things: First, always believe the bull market will return—otherwise enduring makes no sense. Second, never use leverage—avoid it under any circumstance, rational or emotional. Third, bear markets offer incredible opportunities. Study them carefully and position early—even $1,000 invested wisely could grow into $100,000 come the next bull run.
Penguin @MiningLittlePeng (Weibo)
1. Overall market sentiment is bleak—feels like total collapse, possibly worse than 2018. Unless decoupled from U.S. equities, recovery seems unlikely. Institutions haven’t finished unwinding yet. Things won’t improve until everyone using leverage is wiped out. (I foresee prices reaching four digits, but won’t say publicly—afraid of backlash.) Even in bear markets, localized hype may appear—like Ponzi schemes such as Fomo3D—but timing matters. Dollar-cost averaging isn’t viable yet. Wait patiently for market healing. Don’t exhaust your ammo before a short-lived mini-rally appears.
We’ve moved past the cooperative “PvE” bubble-blowing era of 2020–2021. Now it’s PvP—player versus player. During the bull run, every winner profited using capital left behind by those who fled in previous bear markets. Tolerance for error was high. Now, in bear markets, you repay debts from the bull era, and every dollar you earn comes directly from someone else’s pocket.
Crucially, understand your skill tier and align it with the market. If you’re Silver rank, stick to Bronze and Silver matches. Jumping into Diamond or Master games means getting crushed—you’re just cannon fodder. Wait patiently until your level unlocks appropriate matchups. Otherwise, you’ll burn through all your bullets before you’re ready. Always ask: Who exactly am I taking money from? This is critical. Fail to grasp this, enter battles beyond your skill level, and your money vanishes mysteriously.
Survive. Then wait. To play this high-difficulty market, you must master risk-reward ratios and odds calculation. This is no longer a playground where anyone can casually profit.
July earnings season in U.S. stocks will trigger another shockwave. U.S. equities definitely won’t recover this year—expect crypto to follow downward again.
2. In the 2018 bear market, I followed two rules: never touch altcoins—only hold BTC; never trade futures—only spot. Had I broken either rule, I’d likely have lost everything.
Jindouyun, Head of Research at TopFund
1. Judging by peak-to-trough drawdowns, altcoin performance, and various on-chain metrics, we've already seen massive declines—many assume we’ve bottomed. Yet psychologically, it feels like everything is just beginning. Outflows from USDT/USDC reflect large players’ cautious outlook. There might be short-to-medium-term momentum around Ethereum’s Merge, but overall sentiment remains bearish. Each price cycle allows some to exit profitably and eliminates others, yet attracts fresh talent, capital, and attention. Dozens or hundreds of projects launch across sectors via diverse models—most fail, but the surviving leaders and innovations strengthen the industry’s fundamental upward trajectory. Long-term, the horizon remains boundless.
2. Easier to answer from a personal perspective—it doesn’t represent company stance. My biggest mistake: I knew U.S. monetary policy affects crypto markets, but underestimated how tightly coupled they are. Overreliance on patterns from past two bull cycles caused me to delay reducing large positions too late.
Finally, here’s advice from the author Morty—personal opinion only, not financial advice from TechFlow:
As regular participants, we should correctly perceive the ongoing bear market cycle in crypto. Maintaining calm enables better investment decisions. Whether choosing to hibernate, seeking stablecoin yields in CeFi, or exploring traditional stock opportunities, adopting a more balanced, long-term mindset is key.
Moreover, a depressed market offers greater learning potential. Beyond the oft-repeated call to “upgrade cognition,” mastering on-chain tools should be a priority—it’s one of blockchain’s key advantages, after all, since on-chain data is transparent and accessible.
Ultimately, our reasons for entering crypto may vary widely, but the end goal is the same: to live well. As Romain Rolland wrote in *The Life of Michelangelo*: “There is only one heroism in the world: to see life as it truly is and still love it.” Don’t let temporary wins or losses disrupt your long-term well-being. Understand the market, understand life, and keep moving forward.
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