Why "going all-in at the bottom" in the crypto market is an unrealistic dream?
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Why "going all-in at the bottom" in the crypto market is an unrealistic dream?
We're often told not to catch "falling knives," but I believe this advice might do more harm than good.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: Miles Deutscher
Translated by: TechFlow intern
I keep seeing people trying to pinpoint the exact bottom timing, but historically, this has been nearly impossible to do accurately. We're often told not to catch "falling knives," but I believe this advice may do more harm than good. Let me explain why “waiting for the bottom” might not be the best move.
Catching a falling knife can be understood as "trying to buy an asset at its low point while its price is rapidly declining." People often tell you not to do this—they mean “wait until the price hits bottom before accumulating more.” But in a bear market, this logic isn't ideal.
This is because in crypto, identifying the bottom is extremely difficult. If it were easy, every investor from 2018–2020 would have made a fortune. The reality is that most people either: a) lose interest in the market; or b) wait too long before starting to buy.
Calling the bottom is just as hard as calling the top. People think about $5,000 when BTC is at $15,000, just like they think about $100,000 when it hits new highs.
In March 2020, BTC dropped from $8,000 to $3,700 in just two days. People were terrified, and most didn’t buy at that time. That’s understandable—entering after the market becomes clear is natural—but doing nothing is also a loss.
BTC rises from $3,700 to $7,000: “It’s just a dead cat bounce.”
BTC reaches $10,000: “It’ll definitely fall back down.”
BTC hits $15,000: “I still haven’t gotten in!”
In this scenario, you’d miss out on 300% gains simply because you were too focused on “waiting for the bottom.” That’s the problem: many people never enter at lows because they’re waiting, only to FOMO in later at higher prices.
Therefore, if your goal is to accumulate quality assets like BTC and ETH, using dollar-cost averaging (DCA) helps average down your cost basis, avoids guessing the perfect timing, and allows you to achieve your ultimate goal: accumulation.
I’d rather buy during downturns than during rallies.
Suppose you buy BTC weekly over five weeks at prices of $20K, $17.5K, $15K, $12.5K, and $10K—your average entry price would now be $15K.
Did you catch the exact bottom? No. But you’re accumulating an asset you believe in at historically favorable prices.
Personally, I DCA into my chosen assets every week, and I plan to continue doing so for the foreseeable future. I’ve set a strict DCA schedule for the next six months, and I intend to stick with it no matter what. Remember, no plan is a plan to fail.
For example, when BTC was at $30K, I told myself I’d start DCAing at lower levels below $20K.
Will prices keep dropping? Probably. But I’ve made a plan, and I intend to stick with it regardless of market sentiment.
You must commit to your plan—choose an amount you’ll invest regularly, and earn the income needed to fund that investment over time. I set a minimum weekly amount, making DCA more flexible so I can buy more on extreme down days.
If you're a trader, waiting for better entry points makes sense—a few percent difference could mean the difference between being liquidated and making massive gains.
The same argument applies to riskier altcoins. DCAing only works for assets you plan to hold long-term.
Even if you're a professional trader, DCA still applies to any assets you intend to HODL long-term.
Currently, about 70% of what I buy is $BTC and $ETH, but I reserve 30% for altcoins I believe will shine in the next bull run. You must decide which assets you believe in, and what allocation ratio makes sense for your goals.
If macro conditions worsen, I also need to ensure I have enough stablecoins to weather the storm. Ultimately, DCA only works if you have capital to allocate.
When signs of a bottom emerge, I increase my DCA amounts. You can use certain indicators as guidance:
• Where liquidity lies
• Historical support ranges
• Fear sentiment indicators
As Emperor said, market bottoms occur when:
The market goes silent—nobody cares about their holdings anymore.
Deleveraging is complete—there’s nothing left to liquidate.
Price barely moves even amid negative news.
But these signals are highly subjective and vary significantly, so they’re best used as rough guides for adjusting your DCA frequency and size. The good news is, we have plenty of time.
If you missed the 2018–2020 bear market, the next 12–24 months offer a rare second chance. Will you let it slip away, or seize it with both hands? I choose the latter.
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Miles Deutscher
