Crypto KOL: There are 3 stages in a bear market, and we've just entered the second stage
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Crypto KOL: There are 3 stages in a bear market, and we've just entered the second stage
How do crypto OGs view the bear market?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: Yano
Translated by: TechFlow intern
With prices plummeting, everyone believes we are now in a bear market. This article explores how crypto OGs view bear markets and why people should not lose hope and exit.
There are 3 stages of a bear market. We’ve just entered the second stage.
Stage One: Complacency
The excitement (and greed) from the bull market still lingers. Small narratives pop up every few weeks, and there isn’t massive capital withdrawal. Although valuations are being revised downward, companies avoid making tough decisions—no product cuts or layoffs—so things seem okay.
The first stage doesn't feel like a bear market at all—it feels as if prices have simply corrected back to fair value. Investors continue deploying capital, builders keep building. The industry still feels vibrant, and only the timid would consider selling.
Stage Two: Forced Liquidations
Conditions begin to turn harsh. Narratives vanish, prices drop 90%, and projects across the board start laying off staff... Mainstream media and those who sold during Stage One reappear, mocking: "I told you the bear market was here!"
Luna pushed us into Stage Two. In Stage Two, even diamond-handed holders are forced to sell—not because they want to, but because they must.
Celsius didn’t want to sell—they were likely forced to. More funds, companies, and individuals like Celsius will follow.
In Stage Two, any rally is immediately crushed due to overwhelming selling pressure. Companies that bought in at high prices will be crushed. Founders who purchased their own tokens to prop up their projects… they’ll be crushed too.
The lower the price, the louder the bears become. The louder the bears, the lower the price. A vicious cycle forms. In Stage Two, prices collapse violently, and excitement turns into anger.
Stage Three: Endless Despair
After maximum pain comes maximum despair. No rallies, no narratives. Prices consolidate sideways or drift slowly lower—boring and lifeless.
At the bottom, anger gives way to silence.
In Stage Three, you contemplate leaving the industry. When our spirits are lowest, regulators turn against us, your favorite degens on Twitter go quiet, Web2 investors quietly halt allocations, talented builders depart, companies shut down, and you question every assumption you ever made.
Stage Three is the hardest phase to survive. If you're a company, do everything possible to endure. If you're a builder, stay engaged, seek out other builders, and work together. If you're an investor, develop your own strategy and thesis—bet on the people you believe in.
Don’t forget the bigger picture. We’re building an open, permissionless world. This will take decades, not years.
Shut your laptop, go for a walk. Be more cautious when accumulating, and repeatedly ask yourself why you’re buying. But above all—don’t give up.
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@JasonYanowitz
