On the current state of the crypto market: the only keyword in this field is "survival"
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On the current state of the crypto market: the only keyword in this field is "survival"
Cryptocurrency is not going to disappear.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Santiagoroel
Translation: TechFlow Intern
Holding long-term positions is always painful, and watching prices collapse is never fun. It seems we should have done better risk management, but in hindsight, we were still fully exposed. Risk management is difficult in crypto because it's early-stage venture investing in liquidity for an undiscovered price (even including BTC).
Crypto will not decouple from other risk assets this cycle. Yes, there’s opportunity to deploy more long-term capital into the space, but it remains risky—and could still exhibit at least 1.5x to 2x beta relative to Nasdaq.
So, crypto isn’t going away. But this cycle will test protocol resilience, and during this period, many flashy things will die. The era of cheap tokens with no cash flows and broken economic models is ending.
For the past few years, crypto investors performed exceptionally well. Now mean reversion hits—when funds have billions of dollars targeting a relatively small market, it never ends well. Yes, crypto will transform many industries, but narratives always run ahead of fundamentals.
Am I bearish? My long-term outlook hasn’t changed—I’m still researching many Web3 projects that deliver value to this tangible and massive market. I don’t think DeFi will disappear, nor will ideas like Web3 gaming and digital property (NFTs). I’m not bearish; I’m bullish on early teams creating real value. I see more talent flowing in from Web2, and I’m waiting for opportunities when token prices fall below seed round levels. Of course, I’m also prepared to endure more pain and losses.
In 2012, 2014, and even 2018, I felt vulnerable because Bitcoin was essentially the only game in town. Smart contracts were powerful in theory, but lacked practical utility. That’s not the case today—we now have a much richer ecosystem (NFTs, DeFi, GameFi, DAOs).
The only keyword in this field is survival. Are we close to the bottom now? I don’t know. We can always go lower than expected, so be prepared. Web3 may be the most exciting emerging tech frontier, and investors are watching—waiting for when this shock has been fully absorbed before stepping in.
In short, crypto isn’t going anywhere. Considering its broader future use cases and value unlocking potential, coordinated by global human and financial capital, it’s not hard to imagine this asset class growing beyond $1.5 trillion. It’s hard not to be excited—but we need to play the long game.
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