Lessons from Non-Bitcoin Crypto Assets in Previous Bull Markets
TechFlow厳選深潮セレクト
Lessons from Non-Bitcoin Crypto Assets in Previous Bull Markets
How to survive the bull market "trap"?
Web3業界の深掘り報道に専念し潮流を洞察Author: BowTied Bull
Translation: Baihua Blockchain
As we enter 2025, it's customary at this turning of the year to reflect on the past and look ahead to the future.
Looking back at the history of the crypto industry, we can observe an interesting phenomenon: every four years there is an "alt season," a period during which everything in the space seems to rise. You might hear that your alcoholic uncle made a fortune buying some animal-themed meme coin—possibly even while drunk.
By 2025, a true alt season hasn't fully arrived yet. While no one can predict how wild this upcoming cycle will be, I want to remind everyone that altcoin rallies typically surge out of control—and may just as suddenly come to an end. When the crash hits, losses might not just be -99.99%; they could mean total collapse.
But until then, everyone is immersed in prosperity and entertainment. So, let’s take a moment to review previous alt seasons—how did they unfold, and can we extract any valuable lessons?
2012–2013 Alt Season: Early Enthusiasts, Peak Market Cap Reaches $15 Billion
We know that blindly following the crowd is likely to reappear in today’s market. This exact behavior happened before—in 2013—and the trajectory became quite fascinating.
During the 2013 alt season, Bitcoin was still in its early stages, with a total market cap around $1 billion. A whale transaction then amounted to roughly $100,000. The CEX Mt. Gox was still operational, and investors were often people who frequented events like Magic: The Gathering trading card games (which also provides context for the eventual Mt. Gox incident).
Back then, people proposed improving Bitcoin's transaction speed by reducing block times—an innovation considered groundbreaking at the time.
Litecoin: Still active today, the concept (proposed by Charlie Lee) was to shorten Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time to just 2.5 minutes.
LTC rose from about $0.10 to $48—a ~47,900% increase—and surged again in 2017. Then, Charlie Lee sold all his holdings, stating “Bitcoin will be fine without me.” (We all know what it means when a founder sells 100% of their stake.)
Namecoin: A Bitcoin fork aimed at creating decentralized web domains (a concept similar to ENS using ".eth" extensions). Its price briefly spiked to around $13 but quickly crashed. From low to high, it gained about 30x. In fact, it still exists today, currently trading near $1.
Peercoin (PPC): One of the earliest Proof-of-Stake tokens (the mechanism now used to secure ETH), experiencing two major rallies—one in 2013 and another in 2017 during the ETH ICO boom. It once surged to about $7, a 60–70x gain. Naturally, it never achieved mainstream adoption and eventually fell to $0.42. (Though today we might conclude: aside from pure Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect or LUNA, most assets won’t truly go to zero.)
The Hype: Bitcoin eventually hit $1,200, and interest in crypto lifted nearly all altcoins. Any project posted on BitcoinTalk could skyrocket purely on speculation. The closest modern equivalent? Probably a celebrity-endorsed memecoin or one named after a public figure.
Mt. Gox Collapse: When Mt. Gox collapsed, the party ended. A major hack triggered a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price—down roughly 85–90% depending on where you mark the bottom—while alts dropped over 99%.
2017 Alt Season: ICO Mania and Ethereum’s Rise, Peak Market Cap Hits $800 Billion
During the subsequent bear market, many fascinating developments occurred. Ethereum emerged as a smart contract platform designed to create programmable money. This was genuine innovation—enabling not only token transfers but also smart contracts, fundamentally changing the game.
Like many things in crypto, Ethereum came with familiar risks. Its DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) was hacked, losing over $100 million, leading to a blockchain split into ETH and ETC. Some still believe the fork was a mistake, but we won’t debate that here—just noting the historical context.
By 2016, people realized new tokens could be issued on Ethereum, giving birth to Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). In an ICO, projects sell tokens directly to investors. By 2017, ICO mania exploded—with countless scams emerging overnight.
Ethereum (ETH): Demand for ETH to participate in ICOs drove its price from ~$8 to $1,400 by January 2018—an unimaginable return at the time. Today, ETH trades around $3,650.
Ripple (XRP): Still seen as the "banker’s coin," the idea was that Ripple would overnight replace SWIFT as the de facto financial standard. Despite being centralized (though most didn’t care), it attracted millions. XRP jumped from ~$0.01 to $3.80, currently trading at $2.41.
Oddly, XRP’s investor base remains largely retail. In the latest rally, we saw similar patterns—XRP dominating TikTok discussions, with users speculating: “What if it reaches Bitcoin’s market cap?” These “$4 trillion valuation” talks seem bizarre.
Litecoin (LTC): As mentioned, LTC rallied again, peaking at $360. Even after Charlie Lee sold all his coins, it reached $384 in 2021!
EOS: Raised $4 billion via ICO, branded itself the “Ethereum killer.” Price soared to $22 but has never reclaimed that high.
NEO: Another “Ethereum killer,” dubbed “China’s Ethereum.” NEO surged from $0.20 to $200—a 1,000x return.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH): Roger Ver, a well-known figure in Bitcoin circles, backed large-block debates and supported Bitcoin Cash. At block 478,559 in August 2017, holders of 1 BTC received 1 BCH. Thanks to Ver’s promotion, BCH briefly hit ~$3,800 but gradually faded from relevance.
Other Ethereum Killers: During this time, various tokens (like ADA, Tron) were marketed as “Ethereum killers.” If a token had a whitepaper, its price could easily jump 10x or 100x. Others like Filecoin and Tezos launched during this period.
Yield Scams: If you think BlockFi, LUNA, Celsius, and Voyager were the first yield scams—you’re wrong. The first major Ponzi scheme in yield farming was Bitconnect, costing many millions.
Regulatory Crackdown: Just like in 2021, regulatory actions and Ponzi collapses devastated the market. The U.S. SEC began investigating projects like EOS. The market corrected sharply—down ~85%—and by March 2020, Bitcoin had fallen to around $3,500.
Most tokens during that era were outright scams, so the alt market saw near-total wipeouts—drops approaching -99.999999%. Back then, having your token advertised during the Super Bowl could instantly pump its price fivefold. VIBE was a classic example.
VIBE surged from $0.04 to over $2—but ultimately crashed to a market cap of just $262.
2021 Alt Season: DeFi, NFTs, and Memecoins, Peak Market Cap Hits $3 Trillion
In 2021, due to well-known circumstances, everyone was working from home, staring at phones and laptops with little else to do. The U.S. government printed $10 trillion—just in federal spending.
DeFi projects fueled liquidity mining, NFTs brought JPEGs into the mainstream (selling for millions), and memecoins reached absurd valuations. Bitcoin broke $69,000, ETH hit $4,800, and total crypto market cap surpassed $3 trillion in November 2021.
Dogecoin: Started as a joke, but Elon Musk’s interest sent its price parabolic, making it a hot topic on Reddit. Now almost synonymous with Elon’s meme coin—and a symbol of bureaucratic inefficiency. Price jumped from ~$0.005 to $0.74—an increase of about 15,000%.
Solana: Marketed as the next “Ethereum killer,” praised for fast transactions and low fees—largely promoted by SBF (now imprisoned). Price soared from $1 to ~$260—a 26,000% gain.
Shiba Inu: A Dogecoin-inspired memecoin that minted thousands of paper millionaires. From near-zero market cap, it gained up to 500,000%.
DeFi Tokens: AAVE, UNI, SUSHI, YFI—all saw gains between 10x and 50x. Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi surpassed tens of billions. Today, many DeFi protocols have higher TVL than during that peak!
NFTs:
CryptoPunks: Sold for millions—cheapest Punk now priced above 100 ETH.
Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC): Became a cultural phenomenon, with floor prices reaching incredible levels.
Airdrop Frenzy: Longtime users of certain platforms could receive $40,000 in airdrops just by holding a $100 .eth domain. You could earn 2% daily or weekly yields simply by bridging assets. NFT projects like BAYC airdropped entire high-value NFT collections—totaling billions in value.
Even crazier… nearly every token was pumping. Coins like SAFEMOON gained popularity through figures like Dave Portnoy. Celebrities such as Snoop Dogg and Paris Hilton endorsed various projects. Tom Brady and Stephen Curry promoted crypto exchanges. Even the now-defunct FTX paid for naming rights to the Miami Heat arena.
Ponzi Schemes: Massive Ponzi schemes flourished. While some blamed us for being involved, we weren’t. Fortunately, many avoided significant losses. Entrusting your assets to others was—and remains—never a wise move.
Death Spiral: As liquidity dried up (incentives funding these projects vanished), we witnessed the collapse of the aforementioned Ponzis. Then, FTX collapsed due to customer fund theft, followed by renewed SEC enforcement. Widespread fraud and rug pulls led the crypto industry into a strict regulatory phase.
Key Lessons
1) Take Profits Early: Markets move fast, and greed creeps in quickly. If you catch yourself thinking, “I wish I’d bought twice as much of X,” it’s probably time to sell half and lock in gains. Whether you convert to BTC, ETH, or stablecoins doesn’t matter—the key is avoiding greed.
2) Hype Cycles Repeat: Each alt season follows a narrative theme: Bitcoin forks, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, or memecoins. Once you identify a trend, stick with it—because knowledge built in one cycle often vanishes by the next. Rather than jumping around, focus on one area and ride it to success.
3) Risk Management Is Crucial: Returns can be huge, but everyone’s situation differs. You’re not me, and I’m not my neighbor. Make a plan that fits your life and stick to it—don’t let someone with $100K saying “$10M isn’t enough to retire” shift your goals.
4) Survivors Thrive: Altcoins come and go, but Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate every cycle. If a project has lasted this long, its risk of going to zero is relatively low. If Solana finds real-world utility beyond Pump.fun by 2025, it might reach similar resilience.
Have we learned from Ponzi schemes? Not really. Judging from what we’ve seen, people still don’t understand “Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins,” you can buy crypto stocks or leveraged crypto products through brokers, but realize: holding ETFs or equities means you don’t actually own any cryptocurrency. And you’ll never know how those firms manage your invested assets.
During bull markets, we’re often criticized for not chasing the latest memecoin hype. While speculation may seem exciting now, careful observation reveals that those sticking to strategy and staying calm are quietly accumulating wealth.
In contrast, speculators chasing “10x returns” may grab short-term attention, but their capital size and strategies pale compared to anonymous whales who steadily invest month after month. These large players usually have stronger financial foundations and clearer long-term plans. Ultimately, market performance and data prove which strategies lead to real success.
Wishing everyone good luck in 2025.
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@BowTiedBull
