Podcast Notes | Crypto Trader Taiki Maeda: Has Been Buying ZEC for the Past 2 Months, Bullish on HYPE and LIT
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Podcast Notes | Crypto Trader Taiki Maeda: Has Been Buying ZEC for the Past 2 Months, Bullish on HYPE and LIT
The next wave of buyers for perpetual contract DEXs is not in the crypto space, but in traditional finance.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsEdited & Compiled: TechFlow
Featured: Taiki Maeda, Crypto Trader, YouTube Content Creator
Source: YouTube Channel Taiki Maeda
Original Title: Crypto is Bottoming. We're About to Go Much Higher.
Release Date: July 15, 2026
Disclosure: The author publicly disclosed in the video holding long positions in ZEC, HYPE, LIT, using a Variational referral code, and operating a paid Discord community. This article faithfully presents his personal views and does not constitute investment advice.
Key Takeaways
Taiki Maeda is a trader who consistently produces crypto research content on YouTube and has been preaching the Hyperliquid ecosystem for the past two years. In this video, he did something many dare not do: publicly admitted that he got burned by Zcash last month, sold his entire position near the bottom during the panic over the Orchard pool vulnerability in early June, went to Japan for his honeymoon, and bought back in after returning. More counterintuitively, he is still continuously selling Bitcoin to add to his Zcash position.
His core logic follows three lines. First, the market has entered a bottoming process; the real frenzy top was in July to August 2025 (BTC $125K, ETH $5K). The new high of $126K in October was "weak," did not trigger an altcoin season, and does not count as a true cycle top. Second, the next growth engine for perpetual contract DEX tokens (HYPE, LIT) comes from the adoption of RWA perpetual contracts and traditional finance users, rather than crypto-native players cutting each other. Third, Saylor continues to sell BTC to fill STRK preferred stock dividends, coupled with the quantum computing threat and Bitcoin developers' inaction, making Bitcoin "increasingly difficult to support wholeheartedly." Zcash's Ironwood upgrade (launching July 28) will achieve quantum safety and exclude vulnerabilities through formal verification. If the ZEC/BTC exchange rate breaks through 1% from the current 0.8%, it will trigger a narrative-level reflexivity loop.
Highlights Summary
On Market Cycles
"That $126K new high in October doesn't count; it went up and immediately fell back down, never triggering an altcoin season. The real frenzy was in July and August."
"If the real top was in July, then we have already experienced a full year of bear market. Those who wanted to leave have already left."
"I'm no longer fighting the four-year cycle. My advantage lies not in short-term price prediction, but in building conviction on specific sectors within a longer time horizon."
On Perpetual Contract DEXs
"The next wave of growth for perpetual contract DEXs will not come from people within the crypto circle buying tokens, but from traditional finance and retail users using perpetual contracts to bet instead of options."
"Most altcoins will go to zero. A DEX that only does crypto perpetuals is just fighting for scraps. I'm betting on projects competing for share in RWA perpetuals."
"You don't need to bet on just one. You can hold both HYPE and LIT, and through Variational mining, you can also gain convexity from future airdrops."
On Zcash
"If Zcash can recover from this crash, it becomes an antifragile asset. Every time it should have died but didn't, the probability of it dying in the future becomes lower."
"I rushed in during April, rushed in during May, and then sold my entire position at the bottom. Then it started rising, without me. To be honest, it was quite painful."
"Zcash is currently less than 1% of Bitcoin's market cap. If this ratio breaks through 1%, the ZEC price will exceed $700, with both technology and narrative resonance."
On Saylor and Bitcoin
"Saylor makes Bitcoin harder to support than two years ago, four years ago, or six years ago. This is not a problem with Bitcoin itself, but Saylor is too big a part of the narrative."
"The quantum threat is real. Bitcoin developers lack urgency on this, which prevents me from betting my entire net worth on Bitcoin again."
"Zcash and Bitcoin can be the gold and silver of the crypto world: there are trade-offs, but both are worth holding."
Main Text
1. Market Cycle: The Top Was Last July, Not October
Many people stared at the moment BTC hit a new high of $126K last October, thinking that was the cycle top. But Taiki doesn't see it that way. Technically it did hit a new high, but that high was not enthusiastic at all. It went up and immediately fell back down, did not trigger an altcoin season, and aside from individual coins moving, there were no signs of frenzy in the overall market. He describes it as a "weak" new high.
The real frenzy actually happened in July and August. At that time, BTC touched $125K for the first time, and ETH surged to $5,000. People rushed to buy Bitmine, thinking Bitmine was the future of finance. Tom Lee was calling shots, and the DAT frenzy (whether SDR or Bitmine) marked the peak of sentiment. Later proof showed that the future of finance was not that simple.
From this perspective, if the real frenzy top was in July, then we have already gone through a full year of bear market. Those who wanted to leave have basically left, and there isn't much fraud left in the market. Even if you disagree with his judgment and think Q4 will hit new lows, he feels at least we should start slowly building positions. Last year's cycle bottom started in June when BTC fell to $20K (after the 3AC collapse); although there were lower prices later, those who positioned assets well in that window earned very well over the next 12 to 18 months.
He admits he is no longer fighting the four-year cycle, nor does he feel he has any advantage in short-term price prediction. His self-perceived "advantage" is a longer time horizon and the ability to build conviction on specific sectors, narratives, and project fundamentals. From this perspective, starting to allocate slowly now is reasonable.
Moreover, there is a self-fulfilling factor: everyone is waiting for the Q4 bottom, preparing to buy in Q4. If the market bottoms in Q3, these waiting people will only buy at higher prices. Even if Q3 doesn't rise, with so much capital lined up waiting for Q4, how much downside space can there be? Positioning early might be wiser than waiting until Q4 to act.
2. Perpetual Contract DEX: The Real Growth Engine is in RWA Perpetuals
He has been talking about Hyperliquid for over two years, always telling people to mine. Lighter is a newer position. These are few tokens that hit new highs when the broader crypto market was weak, completely decoupled from the trends of BTC and ETH.
On the surface, you could say this is due to strong buybacks. Hyperliquid has bought back about 3.4% of its circulating supply year-to-date, and Lighter has bought back about 6.3%. Hyperliquid's market share relative to centralized exchanges is rising, and the partnership between Robinhood and Lighter is also positive. But Taiki feels these are just surface-level stories.
If being more pessimistic, you could say Hyperliquid's market is already saturated, and the partnership between Lighter and Robinhood is just a catalyst-level pulse. But to truly build a bullish logic for a perpetual contract DEX, one needs to look further.
A structural problem in the current crypto market is: most altcoins have no fundamentals and can only rise if BTC and ETH rise. But perpetual contract DEXs are different. They have real fee revenue and buyback mechanisms. More critically, Taiki believes the real growth of perpetual contract DEX tokens comes from two directions: adoption by traditional finance and retail users, and the growth of RWA perpetual contracts.
He has a very hard judgment: most crypto altcoins will go to zero. So a DEX that only does crypto perpetuals is just fighting for scraps in a constantly shrinking pool. He is more bullish on RWA perpetuals, such as perpetual contracts for gold, crude oil, and stock indices. These varieties are currently small in scale, but should far exceed the volume of crypto perpetuals after 6 to 12 months.
"The next wave of growth for perpetual contract DEXs will not come from people within the crypto circle buying tokens, but from traditional finance and retail users using perpetual contracts to bet instead of options." Within the crypto circle, this logic is too obvious; tokens have already risen a lot, feeling very late. But the next wave of buyers are not people from the crypto circle at all.
Jez's perpetual contract theory also influenced his judgment: perpetual contracts as a delta leverage tool are simpler and easier to use than options. He expects perpetual contracts to continue taking market share from options. This is not a complex judgment, more like "what should happen will happen sooner or later," and people in the crypto circle have a cognitive advantage on this.
3. Hyperliquid, Lighter, and Variational: Position Allocation
Taiki holds three perpetual contract DEX-related positions, with different strategies.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) is his core position. He built the position a few months ago, once waited for a pullback to add more in between, but couldn't wait, and finally bought back directly. The core indicator he is bullish on is the continuous growth of open interest in HIP-3 RWA perpetual contracts. As long as this number is still rising, he remains bullish on HYPE and sees no reason for it to stop.
Lighter (LIT) is a more recent position. During his honeymoon, he was thinking about LIT so much that he felt his subconscious was telling him something, so he bought at market price directly. The logic for LIT lies in the distribution channel advantage brought by the Robinhood partnership, which will be a huge leverage when traditional finance users adopt perpetual contracts.
Variational is his main mining ground. Almost all his trading in the past year was done on Variational. This platform currently has about $120 to $130 million in Open Interest (OI), of which about 25% comes from the TradFi market, a proportion that makes him very bullish. The points program is expected to end in Q3, so there are still a few months of mining window.
He made an interesting estimate: if Variational airdrops 25% of its tokens and lists at a $1 billion valuation, it roughly corresponds to $27 per point. He wouldn't be surprised if it lists at a $2 to $3 billion FDV. It specifically depends on the trends of HYPE and LIT.
He also mentioned a "Texas Hedge" strategy: not only going long HYPE, but also gaining exposure to future perpetual contract DEX tokens through Variational mining. For example, while shorting ETH, he chooses to do it on Variational, rather than on Hyperliquid or Lighter. It doesn't matter if he loses, because airdrop points will compensate; if he wins, even better, and the points are even more. This is the beauty of airdrop mining: setting up convexity for your future self.
Regarding SUI, he is not bullish on the token itself, so he shorts SUI on Variational to hedge his spot position. If SUI rises, his spot position is likely rising too; if the market falls, SUI will also fall. This is a combination hedge.
He opposes the common "tribalism" mindset in the crypto circle: owning HYPE means trading only on Hyperliquid. He believes one can hold multiple tokens simultaneously and obtain more robust exposure through portfolio allocation.
Regarding Variational's competitors, he mentioned Ostium also has an incentive program, but the volume is far less than Variational. Ostium is still in the expansion phase but does not pose a threat in the short term.
4. Zcash Cut Loss Review: From Crash to Buying Back In
Zcash is Taiki's most tangled position. In the last video, he just talked about the painful experience of getting cut by Zcash; in this episode, he admits he bought back in.
What happened: In early June, news spread that there might be an infinite minting vulnerability in the Orchard pool (Zcash's shielded pool). ZEC price dropped straight down by 60%. Taiki sold his entire position near the bottom. His reason was very straightforward: he was going abroad for his honeymoon at the time and didn't want to hold a high-risk position in this state; eliminate the pain first. He even did tax loss harvesting, mocking it as "ultimate self-comfort."
What he was really worried about at the time was that this FUD would completely destroy market confidence in Zcash. Zcash, like BTC, has no cash flow; its value comes from whether people treat it as a store of value tool. If confidence collapses, it may never come back. The vulnerability itself was secondary.
But he gave himself time to observe, and then made a key judgment: if Zcash can recover from this crash, it becomes an antifragile asset. Every time it should have died but didn't, the probability of it dying in the future becomes lower, exactly like Bitcoin's historical logic. The reason Bitcoin is powerful is that there were countless reasons for it to die in the past, but it didn't.
Using Munger's inversion thinking: this crash was likely a huge shakeout, clearing the field for a subsequent surge. If the price can recover, it proves this asset has resilience and is worth buying back into.
He said he rushed in during April, rushed in during May, and then sold his entire position at the bottom. Now it has risen back, without him. He uses "goldfish memory" to describe the mindset needed in trading: let the past go, the question to focus on is "Will this asset recover? If it recovers, how far can it go?"
He admits he is not psychologically mature, but feels he has improved compared to three or four years ago. Back then, he might not have been able to buy back into the same asset after selling at a loss.
5. Ironwood Upgrade: Quantum Safety and Formal Verification
Zcash's next key catalyst is the Ironwood shielded pool upgrade launching on July 28.
Ironwood brings two core improvements. First, quantum safety. Second, formal verification, used to exclude all future undetectable counterfeit coin vulnerabilities. Zcash founder Zooko also used Anthropic's models to audit the protocol.
He used an AI summary to summarize the current situation: Does the Orchard pool have vulnerabilities? Yes. Was it exploited? Unknown. Is there public evidence of exploitation? No. Can Ironwood fix the vulnerabilities? Expected to. Can it guarantee Ironwood has no undiscovered vulnerabilities? No. This is an inherent trade-off of privacy protocols: you cannot fully confirm whether it has been exploited.
But the Ironwood upgrade will essentially prove that the Orchard pool was not actually exploited. Vitalik has also written articles on formal verification, and Taiki believes this will become standard for every crypto project in the future.
From a trading and narrative perspective, full price recovery is likely to kick off a round of narrative revival and reflexivity loop. This is what he wants to position for in advance.
6. Saylor Dilemma: Why Bitcoin is "Increasingly Difficult to Support"
Saylor (Michael Saylor) has been selling Bitcoin to fill dividends for STRK (Strategy Preferred Stock Strife) and increase cash reserves. Taiki believes Saylor is likely to be a net seller of BTC in the foreseeable future.
Saylor has been a continuous net buyer of BTC for the past six years. Now he starts selling slowly every month or every two months; how will BTC react? No one knows. Taiki is not sure if BTC will be dragged down by Saylor's selling behavior, but he is also unwilling to bet that it won't.
"Saylor makes Bitcoin harder to support than two years ago, four years ago, or six years ago. This is not a problem with Bitcoin itself, but Saylor is too big a part of the narrative." If Bitcoin wins, Saylor will become the richest person on Earth; Taiki says he is unsure how he feels about this.
The price of STRK has recovered somewhat (over $70), but the holding experience is very poor. He even thinks Saylor should directly delist this stock, although he is unsure what is going on in Saylor's mind.
Regarding the quantum threat, his friend Evan recently posted pointing out: Bitcoin faces a quantum computing threat, and Bitcoin developers lack urgency on this, which gives him serious concerns about going all-in on Bitcoin again. Taiki agrees. Two years ago, four years ago, he would go all-in on BTC without hesitation, and indeed did so. But the quantum threat is an unknowable variable, and he has no confidence in the Bitcoin community's ability to handle this.
From Zcash's perspective, you don't need to bet that people will sell BTC to buy ZEC. A more reasonable assumption is: someone wanting to allocate $100,000 to the crypto market might have bought 100% BTC two years ago, but now might buy 90% BTC + 10% ZEC. If Zcash surges due to quantum safety, conversely, it can also force Bitcoin developers to treat quantum issues more seriously. Both can coexist for mutual benefit.
"Zcash and Bitcoin can be the gold and silver of the crypto world: there are trade-offs, but both are worth holding."
7. ZEC/BTC Exchange Rate: The Key Threshold for Reflexivity Loop
The Zcash indicator Taiki values most is the ZEC/BTC exchange rate; the ZEC/USD price is secondary.
Zcash and Bitcoin have exactly the same supply schedule: halving every four years, total supply 21 million. Currently, the ZEC/BTC exchange rate is about 0.8%. The previous resistance level was in the ZEC $650 to $700 range, corresponding to an exchange rate of about 1%.
If the ZEC/BTC exchange rate breaks through 1%, it will trigger two things simultaneously: ZEC breaking through multi-year highs (technical signal), and the narrative itself of "Zcash market cap exceeding 1% of BTC" becoming a topic (narrative signal). The resonance of both may trigger larger capital inflows.
He said he has been selling BTC to buy ZEC for the past two months; he did it last month and did some more this month. Now he is no longer continuing to sell; the position is comfortable. His bet is clear: the market will increasingly care about the three narratives of privacy, quantum, and Saylor, regardless of whether Zcash is better than Bitcoin.
Soros's reflexivity theory applies here: fundamentals drive price up, price up changes people's perception of the asset, perception change in turn improves fundamentals (more developers, more users, more liquidity), further pushing up the price. Zcash's reflexivity loop needs the price to move to start.
He added a point: if you are someone who mocked him in the comments for "selling at the bottom," watching ZEC rise back from the bottom and continue to rise, at some point you will find it hard to continue denying what is happening. Zcash has already had many reasons to go to zero: it started rising before BTC peaked, rose another wave in Q1 and Q2, then crashed due to vulnerabilities, and now is recovering again. If all these negative shocks failed to kill this asset, then what exactly can?
8. Position Management and Final Reflections
Taiki's current position ranking: Zcash overweight, HYPE second, LIT third, plus cash and Variational mining rewards.
He retains a cash position for two reasons. First, psychological hedge: last month the ZEC position was too heavy, especially before the honeymoon, making him make emotional decisions. Reducing the ZEC position while holding cash is an attempt to hedge against future mistakes. Second, opportunity reserve: if there is a new pullback or new narrative, he has ammunition to use.
Regarding buy timing: Zcash was added to last week. HYPE was positioned a few months ago. LIT was bought at market price during the honeymoon. The BTC position is currently floating at a loss, but "whatever happens, happens." The new ZEC position is already floating at a profit, but adding previous losses, the overall is still underwater. He believes if the Zcash thesis is correct, previous losses will be made up through gains in the future.
He admits that making mistakes is as inevitable as "looking in the mirror and seeing oneself as a Japanese." But the only thing one can do is move forward and put the best foot forward.
His final stance: Go long perpetual contract DEX tokens (HYPE, LIT), continue mining more perpetual contract DEX tokens (Variational), go long Zcash considering its unique positioning and narrative premium over Bitcoin. Good altcoins have already bottomed. The market is forward-looking. You have to believe in something.
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