Nomura Securities Research Report Analysis: Package Substrate Shipments Surge 36% YoY, Multi-Chip Packaging Route Debate Emerges
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Nomura Securities Research Report Analysis: Package Substrate Shipments Surge 36% YoY, Multi-Chip Packaging Route Debate Emerges
Shipment volume growth is about the present, but the technology iterations over the next two years will determine the winner.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: Rita
TechFlow Guide
In May, Japan's packaging substrate (rigid module substrate) shipment value increased by 36% year-over-year, reaching 27.8 billion yen, hitting a historic high. This data itself is already impressive, but Nomura Securities believes what is more worth paying attention to is the technical route battle beneath the surface: Rubin Ultra's packaging structure may shift from the four-die solution announced at the GTC Conference to a dual-module structure, and TSMC and Intel are engaging in fiercer competition around 2.5D, 3D, and 3.5D packaging. Shipment volume growth is about the present; what determines success or failure is the technological iteration over the next two years.
May Data Hits New High, Both Volume and Price Speak
Nomura Securities cited data from the "Industrial Production Survey" released by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry: May packaging substrate shipment value reached 2.78 billion yen, exceeding the previous high of 2.73 billion yen set in March, a 36% year-over-year increase. In terms of volume, shipment area per square meter increased by 10% year-over-year; in terms of price, the average price per square meter reached 1.356 million yen, up another 23% from the previous high of 1.226 million yen set in April. Demand is shifting towards high-end while increasing in volume.
Nomura Securities infers that Nvidia Rubin packaging demand will truly ramp up this summer (at the latest around August), and relevant packaging substrate shipments are currently gradually climbing. The 36% growth rate seen currently is just a prelude.
Four Die or Dual Module? Rubin Ultra Packaging Structure Changes
The hardest technical judgment in the report: The market is forming a consensus that Rubin Ultra's packaging structure may change from the four-die solution announced by Nvidia at this year's March GTC Conference to a dual-module structure, with two dies combined in a 3D stacking method within each module. Some views also believe the Feynman architecture may adopt a similar dual-module design.
Why the change? The core bottleneck lies in HBM4's denser routing and more pins; wanting to integrate a large interposer exceeding 5.5 times the reticle size with HBM4 sharply increases technical difficulty. TSMC may choose 3.5D packaging as a transition solution in its future roadmap, combining 3D stacking and 2.5D packaging, and then push towards more aggressive integration after the technical feasibility of large interposers becomes clearer.
Intel EMIB-T Unveiled: Stacking HBM4 Without Interposer
At the IEEE Electronic Components and Technology Conference, Intel released a technical paper on EMIB-T. This is a 2.5D packaging solution, with the biggest feature being the non-use of an interposer.
Intel disclosed that EMIB-T will complete mass production preparation in 2026, with a target product size reaching 8 times the reticle size, package size 120×120 mm, capable of integrating up to 12 HBM4s, adopting a four-die structure. Compared to the previous generation EMIB, EMIB-T introduces through-silicon vias and MIM capacitors, improving the voltage drop of the power delivery network inside the package by 68-80%. This improvement is critical; a major reason why EMIB was previously limited in promotion for AI accelerator packaging was that the power supply voltage drop issue was too prominent.
Nomura Securities believes that Intel is building an ecosystem benchmarking TSMC through EMIB-T, but TSMC still has advantages in power management and heat dissipation capabilities, especially since the 3DFabric Alliance has already gathered multiple equipment and material partners.
Four Major Battlefields Determining Success or Failure
The report points out that there are four core technologies in the next-generation packaging competition: power delivery, heat dissipation, CPO, and 3D stacking (hybrid bonding). Whoever can establish ecosystem advantages in these four fields simultaneously will grasp the dominance of AI accelerator packaging.
In the short term, the high growth of packaging substrate shipments will continue, with Rubin mass production and HBM4 penetration being the main drivers. In the medium term, the customer structure and product positioning of packaging substrate manufacturers depend on which leader and which technical route they can align with. The difference between the TSMC route and the Intel route will directly affect the specifications, layers, size, and heat dissipation design of upstream materials.
TechFlow Perspective
This report breaks down a monthly shipment data; underneath is a technical route war that is upgrading. Packaging substrates are different from ordinary PCBs; in the AI era, their performance is directly determined by the packaging architecture adopted by customers. Nvidia Rubin's structural adjustment will impact TSMC, Intel, substrate factories, HBM manufacturers, the whole chain.
Although Nomura Securities did not give individual stock ratings, it pointed out a clear judgment: In the next stage, excess returns in the packaging substrate industry will come from whether they can bind to the technical routes of leading customers; relying solely on industry prosperity is not enough.
Disclaimer
This article is a compilation and interpretation by TechFlow Research of a third-party securities firm research report (Nomura Securities, July 14, 2026). The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in the text are the views of the securities firm's analysts, represent only the position of their affiliated institution, do not represent the views of TechFlow Research, and do not constitute any investment advice.
The market has risks, decisions need to be independent. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.
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