Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump Nominates Warsh and Sets 15% Growth Target; Alphabet Issues $20 Billion in Bonds; U.S. Tech Stocks Rebound
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump Nominates Warsh and Sets 15% Growth Target; Alphabet Issues $20 Billion in Bonds; U.S. Tech Stocks Rebound
U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, and foreign exchange markets are highly correlated; weak data may support a rebound.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Key News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
Probability of Fed holding rates steady in March rises to 82.3%; market pushes back expected timing of rate cuts
- Investors are closely watching this week’s nonfarm payrolls and inflation data, which may signal economic softness; probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut in April stands at 32.4%, rising to 50.4% for June; following his appointment, Chair Wash may revise forward guidance and adjust the balance sheet.
- This expectation reinforces dollar resilience, potentially curbing short-term rallies in risk assets—though weaker data could boost rate-cut expectations.
International Commodities
Gold and crude oil prices rise, supported by a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks
- Spot gold climbs 1.9%, aided by a 0.8% drop in the U.S. Dollar Index; central banks in Asia have consecutively increased gold reserves for 15 months, providing structural support; WTI crude gains 1.3%, driven by heightened U.S.-Iran tensions and Iranian missile threats.
- Commodity rallies may intensify inflationary pressures, though easing geopolitical tensions could reverse oil price trends.
Macroeconomic Policy
Trump sets 15% GDP growth target, increasing pressure on new Fed Chair Wash
- Trump claims Wash can stimulate annual GDP growth of 15%, far exceeding the historical average of 2.8%; the former Fed Vice Chair expects Wash may scrap forward guidance and support two to three rate cuts; political uncertainty in the UK triggers a bond sell-off.
- This optimistic target heightens policy uncertainty, potentially triggering market volatility and affecting global growth expectations.
II. Market Recap
#Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: Down 0.88%, holding near the $5,000 level
- Spot Silver: Down 2.38%, remaining above $80
- WTI Crude Oil: Down 0.08%, trading at $64.30
- U.S. Dollar Index: Down 0.1%, at 96.965
#Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Down 0.85% to $69,860
- ETH: Up 0.8% to $2,100
- Total Crypto Market Cap: Slightly up 0.4% to $2.46 trillion
- Liquidations: $295 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, including $154 million in long positions
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up 0.04%, closing at successive record highs
- S&P 500: Up 0.47%, nearing all-time highs
- Nasdaq Composite: Up 0.90%, driven by a tech-sector rebound
Tech Giants’ Developments
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Up 2.50%, buoyed by AI spending expectations
- Apple (AAPL): Down 1.17%, impacted by broader market volatility
- Microsoft (MSFT): Up 3.11%, rebounding strongly despite rating downgrades
- Google-A (GOOGL): Up 0.45%, amid strong demand for its bond issuance
- Amazon (AMZN): Down 0.76%, facing mounting AI competition pressure
- Meta (META): Up 2.38%, drawing attention due to platform openness requirements
- Tesla (TSLA): Up 1.51%, with steady progress on Full Self-Driving (FSD); overall tech rebound stems from recovery from recent AI overspending concerns, while individual rating adjustments add uncertainty.
Sector Movement Observations
Technology Sector: Up 1.6%
- Representative stock: Oracle, up 9.64%
- Catalyst: Rating upgrades boosted the software services subsector; broader tech sector rebounds from recent declines
Materials Sector: Significant gains
- Representative stocks: Not specified, but beneficiaries of rising gold and silver prices
- Catalyst: Precious metals rally provides support; heightened inflation expectations
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Oracle – Rating Upgrade Drives Sharp Share Price Gain
Event Summary: Oracle’s share price surged 9.6% on Monday after multiple institutions upgraded their ratings, highlighting its robust growth potential in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) space. The company benefited from the broader tech rebound, as the software services index rose 2.9%. This occurred against the backdrop of market recovery from last week’s tech selloff, with investors closely monitoring economic data to assess future interest-rate trajectories. Market Interpretation: Analysts view Oracle’s core business as stable and its AI integration prospects favorably, though caution remains regarding broad-based tech overspending risks. Investment Implication: Short-term opportunities may arise on dips, but investors should monitor upcoming Fed data releases.
2. Alphabet (Google’s Parent Company) – Plans $20 Billion Bond Issuance
Event Summary: Alphabet plans to raise $20 billion via U.S. dollar-denominated bonds—exceeding its initial $15 billion target—with orders surpassing $100 billion. The longest-maturity tranche carries a spread of just 0.95%. Proceeds will fund AI investments; notably, this marks Alphabet’s first-ever bond issuances in Switzerland and the UK—including an exceptionally rare 100-year bond. This move reflects rising financing needs among tech giants amid intensifying AI competition. Market Interpretation: Analysts note that strong order books reflect investor confidence, yet issuance of ultra-long-dated bonds highlights underlying concerns about a potential tech bubble. Investment Implication: Expansionary financing supports long-term growth; suitable for buy-and-hold strategies.
3. Microsoft – Consecutive Rating Downgrades
Event Summary: Microsoft was downgraded twice within one week—from “Buy” to “Hold”—due to capital expenditure concerns and growing competitive pressure on its Copilot product suite. Rivals such as Anthropic’s Cowork challenge Microsoft’s Office 365 ecosystem, possibly forcing free offerings to retain relevance. Despite the downgrades, MSFT shares rose 3.11%, though underlying Azure growth concerns have surfaced. Market Interpretation: Institutions emphasize that AI resource allocation may constrain upside earnings surprises, urging close watch on inflation outlooks. Investment Implication: Increased short-term volatility warrants patience until key data points clarify the path ahead.
4. Novo Nordisk – FDA Accuses Wegovy Ads of Misleading Claims, Files Lawsuit
Event Summary: The FDA sent a letter to Novo Nordisk stating that its Wegovy advertising implies superior efficacy versus other GLP-1 drugs and suggests resolution of lifestyle challenges—claims unsupported by clinical evidence. Shares dropped from +7% intraday to under +3%. Simultaneously, Novo Nordisk sued Hims & Hers over generic production; Hims’ stock plunged 16%. This unfolds amid fierce weight-loss drug competition. Market Interpretation: Analysts see this as a patent-protection maneuver by a pharma heavyweight, though regulatory scrutiny may dampen growth momentum. Investment Implication: Litigation may weigh on shares in the near term; monitor generic developments closely.
5. Meta – EU Antitrust Probe Demands Platform Openness
Event Summary: The European Commission has accused Meta of leveraging its dominant market position to restrict rivals’ access to WhatsApp APIs, thereby suppressing AI competition. It proposes interim measures mandating platform openness. Meta rejects the allegations as baseless. This occurs amid the EU’s intensified AI regulation efforts aimed at curbing tech-giant advantages. Market Interpretation: Analysts regard this as a boundary-setting regulatory action—likely raising compliance costs but not altering Meta’s long-term trajectory. Investment Implication: Rising regulatory risk calls for portfolio diversification.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. South Korea urges stricter crypto regulations following Bithumb’s accidental distribution of $4 billion worth of Bitcoin.
2. Bernstein maintains its $150,000 Bitcoin price target, calling bearish arguments the weakest in history.
3. Melania Trump’s meme coin outperforms Bitcoin amid broader market weakness.
4. McHenry predicts rapid agreement on U.S. crypto regulatory frameworks.
5. Bithumb reclaims most of the $44 billion worth of Bitcoin accidentally distributed.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 08:30 | U.S. | Employment Cost Index (Q4 2025) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 08:30 | U.S. | Import/Export Price Index (Dec 2025) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 10:00 | U.S. | Retail Sales (Dec) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 10:00 | U.S. | Manufacturing Inventory-to-Sales Ratio (Nov) | ⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
- U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report: Later this week — focus on job growth and unemployment rate, potentially influencing Fed policy path
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): Later this week — key indicator for inflation; weak data may bolster case for rate cuts
- Initial Jobless Claims: Later this week — gauge labor market strength
Bitget Research Viewpoint:
Goldman Sachs warns the tech selloff is not over and recommends rotating into small-caps poised to benefit from stimulus; JPMorgan expects no Fed rate cuts in 2026, with dollar strength continuing to suppress commodities; Bank of America raises its gold price target to $5,000, citing stagflation risks and fiscal policy as tailwinds; Barclays sees oil prices as dependent on Iran-related risk premiums, with de-escalation likely to trigger pullbacks; Citi views FX volatility as data-driven, noting GBP and EUR rebounds—but heightened UK political uncertainty adds pressure. Overall, U.S. equities, precious metals, crude oil, and FX remain tightly correlated; softer data may catalyze rebounds across these asset classes.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled using AI-powered search tools and verified manually prior to publication. It does not constitute investment advice.
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